Hello and welcome to the Week 8 edition of Hoppen to Conclusions! This is where I, Sam Hoppen, will share some of my favorite charts, which are designed to give you an overview of the NFL landscape. These charts, along with the commentary that I provide, aim to help you make start or sit, DFS lineup construction, betting picks, or any other fantasy football decisions. There can be a lot of noise in fantasy football analysis, but these charts have been carefully selected to give you some of the most relevant and useful decision points. Let’s dive into a few notable players this week.

• Waiver Wire Advice
• Weekly Fantasy Football Expert Rankings
• Fantasy Football Start/Sit Advice
• Fantasy Football Trade Tools

Fantasy Football Trends & Takeaways

Wide Receiver Usage

• Entering the season, we had what we thought would be a 1A (Tyreek Hill) and 1B (Jaylen Waddle) scenario in Miami, and the ADPs reflected that. Though it may seem like Hill has become Tua’s far-and-away number-one option, that hasn’t necessarily been the case. Waddle has struggled with a number of injuries this season, leading Hill to out-target Waddle in all but two games this season (including one when they both had five). Hill is averaging 10.6 targets per game while Waddle is at a respectable 6.8 targets per game. However, that’s almost directly in line with Hill’s (10 targets per game) and Waddle’s (6.9 targets per game) 2022 usage. The biggest difference has been in the efficiency, as both are still running a route on more than 75% of the team’s dropbacks. Waddle’s yards per reception has cratered from an absurd 18.1 yards in 2022 to a less-impressive 12.0 yards while Hill has gone from 14.0 yards per reception last year to a career-high 17 yards per reception. Still, fantasy managers are frustrated by the two touchdowns Waddle has scored, leaving him as the WR36 in Half PPR leagues. The usage is there, so I am inclined to buy Waddle with the depressed value he likely has right now.
  • Action: buy Jaylen Waddle
• We have a very similar situation playing out in Philadelphia between AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith, but this one has a couple of key differences. First, Brown is averaging over two targets per game more this year than he was last year, while Smith is down from 8 targets per game last year to just 7.1 targets per game this year. Because of this, Smith’s target share has dropped a full five percentage points year-over-year. Part of this change is likely due to Smith’s increased aDOT, which has risen from a career-low 9.6 yards in 2022 to 12.5 yards this year. But, a big reason why I’m still bullish on Smith is twofold. First, he’s running a route on almost every dropback this season — there have only been two games in which he hasn’t run a route on every dropback, and he was at a 97% rate and 96% rate for those two. Second, Philadelphia is throwing the ball a little bit more this year. Last year, the Eagles’ 58.8% neutral script pass rate ranked sixth, but this year their 64.8% rate is second behind only Cincinnati. Both Smith and Waddle will be more boom-or-bust than originally hoped for, but they’re both great buy-low candidates.
  • Action: buy DeVonta Smith
• This week’s Monday Night Football game featured the Jordan Addison breakout. With two touchdowns for 123 yards on seven receptions, Addison now has the highest-scoring fantasy week for a Vikings wide receiver. He only ran a route on 75% of the team’s dropbacks, but that was because he left the game due to some cramping (I’d bet he would have been in on every play had it not been for that). In the two games that Justin Jefferson has missed, Addison has a team-leading 2.29 yards per route run on a 37% air yards share. Kj Osborn has still been involved in those games, running a route on all but one dropback, but it’s a lot of wind sprints as his 0.14 targets per route run is last on the team in that span. With uncertainty around when Jefferson might actually return and the Vikings’ continued penchant for passing the ball, I’m more than willing to buy high on Addison following his breakout.
  • Action: buy Jordan Addison

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