Every week we’ll bring you The Primer, a deep dive into every fantasy-relevant player from every NFL game of the week. You can find the full weekly Primer here. Below we dive into a few notable players ahead of this weekend’s games.
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Fantasy Football Outlook
DeAndre Hopkins: Hopkins is the WR37 in fantasy that’s been seeing monster market share numbers. Among 112 qualifying wide receivers, Hopkins ranks seventh in target share (28.5%), ninth in air-yard share (42.5%), and 15th in YPRR (2.72). Hopkins has been impressive this season, especially when you factor in Tannehill’s lackluster play. The Ravens have utilized zone coverage on 67.3% of their defensive snaps. Against zone, Hopkins has a 27.4% target share, a 45.6% air-yard share, and 2.39 YPRR. Hopkins will run about 74% of his routes against Marlon Humphrey (83.3% catch rate and 151.4 passer rating) and Brandon Stephens (68.3% catch rate and 78.2 passer rating). Week 6 Positional Value: WR3
K.J. Osborn: If you’re looking for Osborn to make a huge jump with Jefferson out of the lineup, you’ll probably be quite sad this Sunday. Over the last three seasons, Osborn has been the WR57, WR51, and WR46 in fantasy. He’s a better NFL player than a fantasy asset. He has been playing a full-time role all season, which has amounted to a 12.3% target share, a 15.4% air-yard share, 0.89 YPRR, and a minuscule 9.8% first-read share. I don’t see Osborn morphing into someone who can help carry a passing attack. The Bears’ zone coverage heavy approach sadly won’t do him many favors either. Among 71 qualifying receivers against zone coverage, Osborn ranks 64th in YPRR (0.77) and 60th in fantasy points per route run. Week 6 Positional Value: WR4/5
Michael Pittman: Pittman has a 26.9% target share, a 29.2% air yard share, and a 34.2% first-read share. In Minshew’s one full start, Pittman’s numbers remained consistent, with a 25% target share and a 31.3% first-read share. Pittman is the WR25 this season, but he’s been underperforming compared to his WR16 ranking in expected fantasy points per game. He ranks 12th in red zone targets among wide receivers. This is a great spot for Pittman to enjoy some positive regression. The Jaguars deploy zone coverage (78.6%) at the ninth-highest rate in the NFL. Pittman has seen his target share increase to 29.4%, and his first-read share balloon to 40.5% against zone coverage. Pittman will run about 72% of his routes against Tyson Campbell (65.4% catch rate and 106.7 passer rating) and Darious Williams (67.7% catch rate and 72.8 passer rating). Jacksonville has allowed the fifth-most PPR points per target to outside wide receivers this season. Week 6 Positional Value: WR2 with WR1 upside in Week 6
James Cook: Cook bounced back last week with 62% of the snaps played, even though his final stat line didn’t reflect the increase in playing time, as he finished with eight touches and 21 total yards. Cook is the RB20, averaging 15 touches and 86.4 total yards. Cook ranks 27th in explosive run rate and 30th in yards after contact per attempt. New York has no shot at stopping Cook this week. The Giants have the second-worst explosive run rate and stuff rate. They have surrendered the second-highest yards per carry to gap runs (5.45). Cook has been utilized on gap runs on 72.1% of his rushing attempts. Week 6 Positional Value: RB1
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