Fantasy Football Outlook: Jake Ferguson, Jaylen Warren, Kendrick Bourne, Kirk Cousins

Every week we’ll bring you The Primer, a deep dive into every fantasy-relevant player from every NFL game of the week. You can find the full weekly Primer here. Below we dive into a few notable players ahead of this weekend’s games.

Fantasy Football Outlook

Jaylen Warren: Warren has been the better fantasy asset in this backfield. He is the RB32 in fantasy points per game with RB2 weeks in four of his last five games (RB19, RB18, RB24, RB24). Since Week 2, he has played 43-49% of the snaps while averaging 10.8 touches and 60.6 total yards. Among 59 qualifying backs, he is 18th in explosive run rate and third in missed tackles forced per attempt. His receiving ability has been on display this season. Among 49 qualifying backs, he is eighth in target share (13.2%), third in target per route run rate, and third in YPRR. Warren will have to produce a good fantasy day through the air because it won’t happen on the ground this week. Jacksonville has allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs while also giving up the second-lowest yard per carry to zone runs (2.61). Warren has seen 60% of this rushing work this season on zone carries. Jacksonville has allowed the most receptions and the fourth-most receiving yards to running backs, so the path is there for him to carve out a decent day. Week 8 Positional Value: RB3 with low-end RB2 upside

Kendrick Bourne: Last week, the Patriots finally woke up and made Bourne a full-time player again. Every time he has been given a full-time role, he has produced. In the four games this season, he has played at least 87% of the snaps; he has earned a 22.3% target share, a 27.2% air yard share, and a 27.9% first-read share with producing 1.93 YPRR. In those four games, he finished as the WR5, WR55, WR10, and WR15. Week 8 Positional Value: WR3/4 with WR2 upside

Kirk Cousins: Cousins is the QB7 in fantasy, ranking fourth in passer rating, first in passing touchdowns, and seventh in highly accurate throw rate. Cousins faces a Packers pass defense that has low-key flaws but has managed to keep quarterbacks held to the eighth-lowest adjusted completion rate, passing yards per game, and fantasy points per game. The Packers’ secondary has been aided by their pass rush, which is 11th in pressure rate and sixth in blitz rate. Cousins has faced the seventh-highest pressure rate this season, so it’s a stretch to think the Vikings offensive line can consistently buy him time. Cousins has navigated muddy pockets well all year, ranking fifth in pressured passing grade, third in pressured yards per attempt, and leading the NFL in pressured passing touchdowns. If he can continue to pull a rabbit out of his dad hat, Cousins can shred this secondary deep. Green Bay has allowed the second-highest deep passer rating and deep-adjusted completion rate. Week 8 Positional Value: QB1

Jake Ferguson: Ferguson is finally a full-time player in this offense, and it couldn’t come at a better time. In his last game played, he had an 82.1% route run rate, which is excellent. Among 28 qualifying tight ends, he ranks sixth in open rate, which is amazing (immediately behind George Kittle). Among 40 qualifying tight ends, Ferguson ranks 16th in target share (14.4%), 17th in YPRR, and 12th in first-read share. He leads all tight ends in red zone targets this season. The Rams have been a glorious matchup for tight ends all season, allowing the highest yards per reception, the sixth-most receiving yards, and the fifth-most fantasy points. Week 8 Positional Value: TE1