Fantasy Football Outlook: Isiah Pacheco, Jake Ferguson, Jordan Love, Jordan Addison

Every week we’ll bring you The Primer, a deep dive into every fantasy-relevant player from every NFL game of the week. You can find the full weekly Primer here. Below we dive into a few notable players ahead of this weekend’s games.

Fantasy Football Outlook

Jake Ferguson: Ferguson is walking a tightrope. He is the TE8 in fantasy with an 18.5% target share (eighth-best) and 30.5% TPRR (second-best). These metrics are insane, considering that he is also 31st in routes run and 32nd in route participation. Ferguson also leads all tight ends with 11 red zone targets. His playing time is mediocre, but when he’s on the field, his usage is elite. I’ll make the bet that Ferguson’s high-wire act gets crushed this week against a 49ers’ defense that has limited tight ends to the sixth-fewest receiving yards and the fifth-lowest yards per reception. Week 5 Positional Value: TE2

Jordan Love: Love has finished as a top-12 fantasy quarterback in three of his four games (QB3, QB6, QB12). He is a much better fantasy option than real life quarterback. Among 36 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 22nd in passing grade, 19th in yards per attempt, and 35th in adjusted completion rate. His combination of downfield passing (first in air yards per attempt) and rushing has propelled him to nice fantasy days. Love is 12th in carries, 13th in rushing yards, and fifth in rushing scores among quarterbacks. Love could be a QB1 again this week. The Raiders pass defense is a pushover. They have allowed the fourth-most passing touchdowns, fourth-highest passer rating, and the eighth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Week 5 Positional Value: Borderline QB1

Jordan Addison: Addison’s route run rate has bounced all over the place over the last three games from 66.7% (Week 4) to 76.4% (Week 3). Minnesota loves K.J. Osborn. I don’t know why the Vikings refuse to bump Addison up to an 80% route run rate, but it hasn’t happened. Addison has a 12.1% target share, a 21.2% air-yard share, and 1.57 YPRR. Addison has only four deep targets, and two red zone looks this season as the WR45 in fantasy. Addison will run about 77% of his routes against L’Jarius Sneed (56.5% catch rate and 72.6 passer rating) and Joshua Williams (37.5% catch rate and 48.4 passer rating). Week 5 Positional Value: WR5

Isiah Pacheco: Pacheco is the RB16 in fantasy. He’s coming off his highest volume game of the season with 60% of the snaps played. Pacheco had 23 touches as he rattled off 158 total yards. It was only the second 100-yard rushing game of his career. Pacheco ranks 20th in weighted opportunity and sixth in red zone touches. His breakneck running style has been paying off as he’s ninth in explosive run rate, 19th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and ninth in yards after contact per attempt. This week, he could be contained. The Vikings’ run defense has been quite good this season. They are limited backs to the third-lowest explosive run rate and the sixth-lowest yards after contact per attempt. Minnesota also has the 13th-best stuff rate. They have given up the lowest yards per carry (2.2) to gap runs (Pacheco 56.4% gap). Week 5 Positional Value: RB2/3