Fantasy Football Outlook: George Pickens, Terry McLaurin, Garrett Wilson, Jonathan Taylor

Every week we’ll bring you The Primer, a deep dive into every fantasy-relevant player from every NFL game of the week. You can find the full weekly Primer here. Below we dive into a few notable players ahead of this weekend’s games.

Fantasy Football Outlook

Terry McLaurin: McLaurin is the WR24 in fantasy with a 19.9% target share, a 30.5% air-yard share, 1.71 YPRR, and a 26.8% first-read share. McLaurin has two touchdowns this season, but it’s difficult to count on those in any week for a wide receiver with zero red zone targets. Philly has utilized zone coverage on 69.2% of their coverage snaps. Against zone, McLaurin’s target share has dropped to 18.4%, his YPRR has dropped to 1.49, and his first-read share has declined to 25.0%. McLaurin will run about 81% of his routes against Darius Slay (71.4% catch rate and 92.9 passer rating) and James Bradberry (55.6% catch rate and 102.7 passer rating). Week 8 Positional Value: Volume-based WR3

George Pickens: Pickens is the WR18 in fantasy with a 24.9% target share, a 46.0% air-yard share, 2.60 YPRR, and a 33.0% first-read share. Pickens is tied for 33rd among wide receivers in deep targets. Last week, with Johnson back, he still led the team with a 32.0% target share, a 61.8% air-yard share, 3.96 YPRR, and a 35.3% first-read share (tied with Johnson). Pickens should eviscerate a Jaguars’ secondary this week that has struggled to defend the deep ball. Jacksonville has allowed the third-most deep passing yards and the 11th-highest deep completion rate. I was not in on Pickens this year, but he has proven me wrong and taken his game to another level this season. Week 8 Positional Value: WR2

Garrett Wilson: Wilson is the WR23 in fantasy, which is a true testament to his talent to produce as a WR2 despite the quarterback play of Zach Wilson. He has been the only startable receiver in this offense and a fountain of high-leverage usage. He ranks ninth in deep targets and second in red zone targets among wideouts. Among 105 qualifying wide receivers, he ranks tenth in target share (28.4%), sixth in air-yard share (45.9%), 40th in YPRR (1.86), and first in first-read share (45.3%). The Giants utilize man coverage at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL (39.5%). Against man, Wilson’s YPRR has increased to 2.27. Week 8 Positional Value: WR2/3

Jonathan Taylor: Taylor’s workload continues to ramp up. He played 50% of the snaps last week, which doesn’t sound like a ton, but when he was out there, the idea was to get the ball in his hands. Taylor had 21 touches with 120 total yards last week while playing only 35 snaps. If he was on the field, the ball was likely going to Taylor. He also dominated the red zone work with all six red zone carries in Week 7. He finally displayed his usual explosiveness in Week 7, which we’ve been waiting for. Among 41 qualifying backs last week, he ranked 17th in explosive run rate and tenth in yards after contact per attempt. Taylor takes on an improving Saints run defense that has surrendered the tenth-lowest yards after contact per attempt, the second-fewest fantasy points per game to backs, and the third-lowest yards per carry to zone runs (Taylor 59.4% zone). Week 8 Positional Value: RB2