Welcome back, everybody! We’ve got NFL Week 5 wrapped and a lot to recap from ALL the action! Hopefully, you have liked the new version of the 2023 usage report. While slightly altered from previous installments, I think it packs a punch that is exactly what fantasy managers want and NEED as they make transactions heading into the next week.
Again, we live in the year 2023, where bite-size and easy-to-digest content is the way, the masses consume content. My goal with this weekly piece is to provide you with the KEY ACTION items – waiver wire pickups, trade, add, drop, stash, buy, sell, start, sit, etc. – for your fantasy football team based on what happened the previous week. Let me do the work of scouring through the data, so you can just follow my lead. As my college marketing professor always said, “Keep it simple, stupid.” The KISS mantra is at its finest.
- Waiver Wire Advice
- Weekly Fantasy Football Expert Rankings
- Fantasy Football Start/Sit Advice
- Fantasy Football Trade Tools
As always, I’ll be citing data and what I watched on film from the weekend’s past matchups highlighting what matters most and what’s potentially just noise. I will make a strong effort to feature players who are coming off polarizing performances, as they are sure to be the ones fantasy managers have the most question marks about. Note that If I omit a certain player(s), it’s likely because their role/usage did not change from the week prior. Want to save valuable space for players whose stock is rising/falling, as this is where we can take advantage as savvy fantasy gamers.
Here is my entire Week 6 fantasy football forecast. Below we dive into a few notable players.
Fantasy Football Forecast
Denver Broncos
Buy Jerry Jeudy, Hold Jaleel McLaughlin/Samaje Perine, Avoid Adam Trautman
No Javonte Williams left the backfield to Jaleel McLaughlin and Samaje Perine. McLaughlin scored on a receiving TD (4 targets) while adding nine carries for 68 yards. 4 catches on just 10 routes run. Whoever the early-down RB on the Broncos is – either McLaughlin or Javonte Williams – continues to get work.
Perine added 6 for 22 on the ground but was also effective as a receiver. Team-high 73 yards on 5 targets.
Led backfield in routes run.
Each RB saw 2 red zone carries. McLaughlin’s both came inside the 6-yard line. Would view him as RB1 on a short week versus KC, but Perine has appeal should Denver be dialing up pass attempts.
Don’t drop either of them until we get the green light for Williams. Short week as they play on Thursday at Arrowhead Stadium.
Jerry Jeudy led the team in targets (7, 26%), catching 6 for 50. The only incompletion came on the final drive in total desperation mode. Was efficient and led the team in routes run and air yards. He now leads the team in target share (21%) this season.
Either he continues on the strong trajectory, or he gets traded as the Broncos’ 2023 season goes off the rails. Either way, he’s a nice buy-low target. The Broncos’ defense is still horrible which means Jeudy will continue to see heavy involvement.
Courtland Sutton got sauced to one catch for 13 yards.
Marvin Mims continues to play behind Brandon Johnson. Woof. But he also fumbled twice. Not ideal.
Adam Trautman was more involved this week than ever before, which can happen when you consistently play 90% of the snaps. Saw his most targets (5) since Week 1. Still, I’d tread lightly especially with Greg Dulcich returning soon from IR.
Cincinnati Bengals
Buy Joe Mixon, Tee Higgins, Add Trenton Irwin,
How’s the calf Joe Burrow? Feels good? Cool? Cool.
Burrow tossed 317 passing yards and 3 TDs to Ja’Marr Chase who went OFF. Most points scored by a player this season.
192 yards and 3 TDs. 15 catches on 19 targets (43% target share). Finally feels good to have drafted him No. 1 overall.
Without Tee Higgins, Trenton Irwin commanded 10 targets, catching 8 for 60 yards. Tyler Boyd was fine with 6 for 39 on 7 targets. Both were near every-down players. Irwin narrowly missed another long TD as well. Add off waivers if you need a warm body, should Tee Higgins (also a buy low not being top of mind) not be ready.
As for the backfield, same old for Joe Mixon. 25 carries for 81 yards and four catches (4 targets). 77% snap share. And although he was effective, he did not score. Buy the dip on the lack of TDs. He had 2 red-zone targets, and 8 red-zone carries. He just kept getting stuffed play after play. Mixon had 8 red-zone carries entering Week 5…
Seattle up next, then the bye week.
Watch out for this offense if this was the launch pad they needed to HEAT up.
Arizona Cardinals
Add Emari Demercado, Buy Michael Wilson
James Conner left with an injury and Keontay Ingram was already out. That thrust pass-catching specialist Emeri Demercado into the RB1 role. 10 carries for 45 yards to go along with 3 targets on a whopping 77% snap share.
Add him off waivers this week, but be wary his role might not be as high in Week 5 should Ingram – the offseason RB2 – return to the lineup. However, I’d rather be on the optimistic side as the team had Corey Clement active…and he played zero offensive snaps.
Marquise Brown finished with another strong outing, 4-61 on 10 targets (33%) and 1 TD. Owned nearly half of Josh Dobb’s air yards (49%). 28% target share through 5 games.
Can’t say the same for hot Week 5 waiver wire pick up, rookie Michael Wilson. 1 for 18 on 2 targets. Was not targeted until the fourth quarter. The routes and snaps were still there, so just chalk it up to WR variance.
Zach Ertz turned back into a pumpkin – 2 for 10 on 4 targets – but got the TD.
The Rams, Seahawks and Ravens up next. Probably buy low on Wilson with some really good matchups coming up.
-Andrew Erickson
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