Fantasy Football Outlook: De’Von Achane, Nico Collins, Joe Mixon, Marvin Mims

Every week we’ll bring you The Primer, a deep dive into every fantasy-relevant player from every NFL game of the week. You can find the full weekly Primer here. Below we dive into a few notable players ahead of this weekend’s games.

Fantasy Football Outlook

Nico Collins: Collins has had a monster season so far. He’s the WR7 in fantasy with a 21.1% target share, a 34.3% air-yard share (21st), and the third-highest YPRR (among 100 qualifying wide receivers). If Stroud looks to challenge this secondary deep, Collins will be a part of it. He is tied with Dell for the team lead in deep targets (four). Collins will face some tough competition on the perimeter this week as the Falcons changed up their cornerbacks last week with Jeff Okudah returning to the lineup. Collins will run about 81% of his routes against Okudah (2022: 61.5% catch rate and 97.0 passer rating) and A.J. Terrell (61.1% catch rate and 94.7 passer rating). Week 5 Positional Value: WR2

De’Von Achane: This is Achane’s backfield. He played 60% of the snaps last week with 11 touches and 120 total yards as the RB5 for the week. He dominated routes and red zone opportunities last week. This could get murky once Jeff Wilson returns, but for now, it’s the Achane show. Achane has been nothing short of amazing. He leads all running backs in explosive run rate, missed tackles forced per attempt, and yards after contact per attempt. Hat tip to Pat Fitzmaurice. This has been his dude since the NFL Draft process. He loved him way back then, and he was right. He has been electric and looks like the second coming of Warrick Dunn. The Giants have no chance of stopping Achane this week. Their run defense has allowed the fourth-highest explosive run rate and tenth-highest yards after contact per attempt while also sporting the sixth-lowest stuff rate. Week 5 Positional Value: RB1

Joe Mixon: Mixon is the RB22 in fantasy, averaging 17.1 touches and 78.6 total yards. He has played at least 75% of snaps in three of four games. Mixon is tenth in snap share and fourth in opportunity share. His efficiency drop-off last year looks real, and it appears it’s here to stay. Among 58 qualified backs, Mixon ranks 41st in explosive run rate, 29th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 27th in yards after contact per attempt. Arizona is an average to above-average matchup for Mixon. The Cardinals have the second-lowest stuff rate, the 12th-highest yards after contact per attempt, and rank 15th in explosive run rate allowed. Week 5 Positional Value: RB2

Marvin Mims: Mims remains only an upside stash. Since Week 2, he has only a 26.8% route run rate despite 7.77 YPRR and a 30% TPRR. I don’t know why Payton refuses to thrust his talented rookie into a full-time role, but it hasn’t happened yet. For now we continue to watch and wait. Mims has produced beautifully with every opportunity that he has earned. Week 5 Positional Value: Stash-only