Fantasy Football Outlook: DeAndre Hopkins, Anthony Richardson, Najee Harris, Jaleel McLaughlin

Every week we’ll bring you The Primer, a deep dive into every fantasy-relevant player from every NFL game of the week. You can find the full weekly Primer here. Below we dive into a few notable players ahead of this weekend’s games.

Fantasy Football Outlook

Anthony Richardson: Richardson’s passing remains a work in progress, although the flashes on film weekly have been eye-popping. He ranks 21st in yards per attempt, 19th in hero throw rate, and 31st in adjusted completion rate. Despite that, he remains a fantasy point-scoring machine. He ranks first in fantasy points per dropback. He is seventh in rushing yards and first in rushing touchdowns. Richardson should have no problems shredding the Tennessee secondary that has given up the sixth-highest yards per attempt and passer rating. The Titans have also surrendered the third-highest CPOE to deep throws and the eighth-most passing yards. Richardson has top-three upside this week. Week 5 Positional Value: High-end QB1

DeAndre Hopkins: Last week, while banged up, Hopkins still had a 67.7% route run rate with a 23.1% target share and a 35.9% air yard share. He was second on the team with a 26.3% first-read share. Overall, this season, Hopkins has a 27.5% target share, a 37.0% air yard share, and a 33.8% first-read share. He ranks 28th in receiving grade and 24th in YPRR. Hopkins will run about 69% of his routes against Dallis Flowers (61.1% catch rate and 98.1 passer rating) and Juju Brents (80% catch rate and 134.2 passer rating). Week 5 Positional Value: Hopkins is a volume WR3 with WR2 upside this week

Najee Harris: Haris and Warren have settled into their roles. Over the last two weeks, Harris has been the early down thumper, playing 49-50% of the snaps, averaging 17 touches and 84 total yards. Harris has been running well, although the box scores don’t show it. Among 58 qualifying backs, he ranks second in explosive run rate, 13th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and tenth in yards after contact per attempt. Yes, Harris has been top-15 in the rushing metrics I care about. Crazy, I know. Harris could have his best game to date of the season in Week 5. Yes, that bar is low, but hear me out. Baltimore’s run defense has not kept up with their stellar pass defense. They have given up the 11th-highest explosive run rate and missed tackles allowed per attempt. The Ravens are surrendering the 11th-highest yards per carry to zone runs (Harris 55.1% zone). Week 5 Positional Value: RB2

Jaleel McLaughlin: The 5’7″ 187 pound McLaughlin is lightning in a tiny bottle. Last week, he played 33% of the snaps, turning ten touches into 104 total yards. It’s an incredibly small sample size this regular season. Still, among 66 qualifying backs, McLaughlin ranks ninth-best in explosive run rate, first in missed tackles forced per attempt, and third in yards after contact per attempt. If we look at his preseason resume, we find more explosive plays on display. Among 64 qualifying running backs this preseason, McLaughlin ranked 15th in yards after contact per attempt, 22nd in breakaway rate, and 13th in elusive rating. He might be tiny, but the elusivity is real across multiple samples. If we go back to his college resume, we find more of the same. In 2022, among 296 qualified FBS and FCS running backs, he ranked 56th in yards after contact per attempt and 99th in elusive rating. The Jets aren’t a fearsome run defense, but they have held zone runs to the tenth-lowest yards per carry (McLaughlin 69.2% zone). I expect Perine to get the first crack at the work this week, but McLaughlin should work in equally with the upside to out touch him. Week 5 Positional Value: RB3