Welcome back, everybody! We’ve got NFL Week 5 wrapped and a lot to recap from ALL the action! Hopefully, you have liked the new version of the 2023 usage report. While slightly altered from previous installments, I think it packs a punch that is exactly what fantasy managers want and NEED as they make transactions heading into the next week.
Again, we live in the year 2023, where bite-size and easy-to-digest content is the way, the masses consume content. My goal with this weekly piece is to provide you with the KEY ACTION items – waiver wire pickups, trade, add, drop, stash, buy, sell, start, sit, etc. – for your fantasy football team based on what happened the previous week. Let me do the work of scouring through the data, so you can just follow my lead. As my college marketing professor always said, “Keep it simple, stupid.” The KISS mantra is at its finest.
- Waiver Wire Advice
- Weekly Fantasy Football Expert Rankings
- Fantasy Football Start/Sit Advice
- Fantasy Football Trade Tools
As always, I’ll be citing data and what I watched on film from the weekend’s past matchups highlighting what matters most and what’s potentially just noise. I will make a strong effort to feature players who are coming off polarizing performances, as they are sure to be the ones fantasy managers have the most question marks about. Note that If I omit a certain player(s), it’s likely because their role/usage did not change from the week prior. Want to save valuable space for players whose stock is rising/falling, as this is where we can take advantage as savvy fantasy gamers.
Here is my entire Week 6 fantasy football forecast. Below we dive into a few notable players.
Fantasy Football Forecast
New York Giants
Buy Saquon Barkley, Darren Waller, Add Jalin Hyatt, Wan’Dale Robinson, Drop Matt Breida
Daniel Jones left the game in the 4th quarter so monitor his status. It’s a neck injury, but not considered serious.
In Week 5, the Giants adopted a running back-by-committee approach to their ground game
Rookie Eric Gray was the leading rusher for the Giants, carrying the ball 12 times for 25 yards, averaging 2.1 yards per attempt.
Matt Breida contributed significantly with 9 carries for 21 yards, averaging 2.3 yards per carry. He played the most snaps and ran the most routes.
D. Waller (TE) – 66 (92%)
D. Slayton (WR) – 49 (68%)
W. Robinson (WR) – 48 (67%)
M. Breida (RB) – 42 (58%)
J. Hyatt (WR) – 33 (46%)
Eric Gray (RB) – 30 (42%)
I. Hodgins (WR) – 28 (39%)
D. Bellinger (TE) – 27 (38%)
S.Shepard (WR) – 20 (28%)
P. Campbell (WR) – 16 (22%)— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) October 9, 2023
This team needs Saquon Barkley back. The Bills cannot stop the run. He is LITERALLY their only hope.
Gray was more involved in the first half and would presumably be the guy to roster in Week 6 if Barkley misses another game.
Darren Waller led the team in receptions, receiving 8 passes for 86 yards (11 targets, 37% target share). Ran a route on 100% of dropbacks. Still, a trade-for-target based on his alpha usage in plus-matchups.
Wan’Dale Robinson caught five passes for 18 yards (6 targets, 20% target share). PPR machine. Continues to be HYPER-TARGETED. Standard zero. He left the game, was ruled out but then came back. Only Giants WR not-named Waller you can play (strictly PPR).
Jalin Hyatt‘s playing time increased again, as this time he totally supplanted Isaiah Hodgins as the No. 3 WR. Keep him stashed as a high-upside rookie. Second on the team in routes run, but was not targeted.
A wounded Bills defense, Commanders and Jets are the next three matchups.
New Orleans Saints
Add Kendre Miller, Sell Chris Olave, Alvin Kamara
Alvin Kamara led the ground game for the Saints with 22 rushing attempts, gaining 80 yards and finding the end zone once (62% snap share). He displayed his versatility as a dual-threat back catching 3 balls for 17 yards (3 targets). 37% route participation was down from last week as the team didn’t really need to throw up big early in a blow-out victory.
Chris Olave (WR) – 57 (79%)
Michael Thomas (WR) – 51 (71%)
Foster Moreau (TE) – 48 (67%)
Alvin Kamara (RB) – 45 (62%)
Rashid Shaheed (WR) – 41 (57%)
Taysom Hill (QB) – 28 (39%)
Jimmy Graham (TE) – 27 (38%)
Kendre Miller (RB) – 26 (36%)
Keith Kirkwood (WR) – 17 (24%)— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) October 9, 2023
Kendre Miller was also heavily involved, receiving 4 targets and making 4 receptions for 53 yards, displaying his reliability in the passing game. Only ran two fewer routes than Kamara and each saw two targets in the first half.
Miller went 12 for 37 rushing, although some of his work came later in the blowout. Still, he saw some time alongside Kamara before the game got out of hand as the team recently released Tony Jones Jr.
Make sure he’s not on waivers as a high-end handcuff to Kamara. The guy has juice, especially in the passing game.
I also think Kamara might be a sharp sell-high after this game. Backfield was not all his with Miller sprinkling in. And Jamaal Williams will eventually be returning, which could spell further touches away from AK41. Kamara has averaged 24.5 touches per game since returning from suspension. That leads all players and is likely not sustainable.
| Rank | Player | Games | Touches | Touches/game |
| 1 | A.Kamara | 2 | 49 | 24.5 |
| 2 | Z.Moss | 4 | 97 | 24.25 |
| 3 | C.McCaffrey | 5 | 119 | 23.8 |
| 4 | D.Montgomery | 4 | 93 | 23.25 |
| 5 | T.Etienne | 5 | 113 | 22.6 |
| 6 | J.Jacobs | 5 | 105 | 21 |
| 7 | T.Pollard | 5 | 100 | 20 |
| 8 | A.Ekeler | 1 | 20 | 20 |
| 9 | J.Mixon | 5 | 97 | 19.4 |
| 10 | D.Henry | 5 | 95 | 19 |
| 11 | R.White | 4 | 76 | 19 |
| 12 | S.Barkley | 2 | 38 | 19 |
| 13 | D.Pierce | 5 | 93 | 18.6 |
| 14 | D.Swift | 5 | 91 | 18.2 |
| 15 | K.Williams | 5 | 90 | 18 |
| 16 | K.Walker | 4 | 72 | 18 |
| 17 | D.Jackson | 1 | 18 | 18 |
| 18 | B.Robinson | 5 | 88 | 17.6 |
| 19 | I.Pacheco | 5 | 82 | 16.4 |
| 20 | R.Stevenson | 5 | 80 | 16 |
| 21 | N.Chubb | 2 | 32 | 16 |
| 22 | A.Mattison | 5 | 78 | 15.6 |
| 23 | J.Conner | 5 | 76 | 15.2 |
| 24 | M.Sanders | 5 | 76 | 15.2 |
| 25 | B.Robinson | 5 | 76 | 15.2 |
| 26 | J.Cook | 5 | 75 | 15 |
| 27 | J.Ford | 4 | 60 | 15 |
| 28 | R.Mostert | 5 | 73 | 14.6 |
| 29 | J.Kelley | 4 | 58 | 14.5 |
| 30 | J.Williams | 2 | 29 | 14.5 |
| 31 | N.Harris | 5 | 68 | 13.6 |
| 32 | T.Allgeier | 5 | 68 | 13.6 |
| 33 | A.Dillon | 5 | 67 | 13.4 |
| 34 | J.Gibbs | 4 | 53 | 13.25 |
Michael Thomas was Derek Carr‘s primary target, with 7 targets (28% target share). He caught 4 passes for 65 yards. Chris Olave had 5 targets, making 2 receptions for 12 yards, and he found the end zone once. Was very close to a second score. Still, I’m not sold on the Derek Carr-Olave pairing. The Saints QB consistently misses Olave downfield. Therefore after the TD score, I am looking to SELL Olave even after buying low last week. The Saints second-year WR has 3 catches for 16 yards over the last two games.
The Texans, Jaguars and Colts are up next for the Saints.
New England Patriots
Buy Rhamondre Stevenson, Add Kendrick Bourne
Rhamondre Stevenson and Ezekiel Elliott shared the rushing duties. Stevenson had 8 rushing attempts, gaining 24 yards, while Elliott carried the ball 8 times for 21 yards. The Patriots struggled to find significant success on the ground. Shocker.
Elliott had a notable role in the passing game, catching all 4 targets for 17 yards. Stevenson had just 2 targets (both on the 1st drive). Snaps were nearly 50/50, although Stevenson ran more routes (15 vs 10).
D. Parker (WR) – 53 (98%)
Kendrick Bourne (WR) – 47 (87%)
Hunter Henry (TE) – 42 (78%)
Mac Jones (QB) – 39 (72%)
J. Smith-Schuster (WR) – 27 (50%)
R. Stevenson (RB) – 27 (50%)
Ezekiel Elliott (RB) – 25 (46%)
Mike Gesicki (TE) – 16 (30%)
Demario Douglas (WR) – 7 (13%)— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) October 9, 2023
This was Stevenson’s worst game and lowest volume output with just 10 touches. You’d be selling low if you move him especially ahead of a great matchups against the Raiders, Bills and Dolphins. Buy low.
He looked much better in this game than he has despite how bad the Patriots’ offense has played. Opened the game with an 8-yard rush, followed by rushes of 4, 4, 0, 8, -5, 7, 0 and 5. If he wasn’t getting completely stuffed, he was racking up 4-plus yards on the ground. The major loss came on a botched pitch by Jones.
Considering the current state of the Patriots offense – Bill Belichick said they need to start over – I’d bet he just rides in the best offensive players he has. That guy is Stevenson.
Mac Jones started the game but faced pressure from the Saints’ defense. He completed 12 out of 22 passes for 110 yards but threw two interceptions. Jones had to contend with a Saints defense that was effective in creating turnovers. He didn’t finish the game for the second straight week…
Kendrick Bourne was the Patriots’ primary target with 5 passes thrown his way. He caught 2 of them for 43 yards, including a 28-yard reception that displayed his ability to stretch the field (116 air yards).
Rookie Demario Douglas was targeted twice, catching one pass for 24 yards, showcasing his capability to gain substantial yardage on a single play. However, he left with an injury.
JuJu Smith-Schuster (too early to call the worst FA signing?) also left with an injury.
With all the injuries to the WRs, Bourne is back in a full-time role. Puts him in the desperation streamer category for Week 6. He leads the Patriots with a 17% target share and 29% air yards share this season. Leads team in all receiving categories.
The Raiders, Bills and Dolphins are up next.
-Andrew Erickson
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