Every week, I’ll be writing a comprehensive primer on every NFL matchup and all of the relevant players, matchups, pace and playcalling notes, and injuries. It covers everything you need to know when setting your lineups. But since that article is massive and requires a full pot of coffee, we’re also going to offer these more focused matchup overviews to help you prepare for Thursday Night Football: Buccaneers vs. Bills. Here’s the full Thursday Night Football Primer. Below are a few notable players.
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Thursday Night Football Outlook
Wide Receivers
Chris Godwin: Godwin’s luck this season has to turn around. He leads the team with a 23.4% target share and a 20.6% first-read share while posting a strong 2.19 YPRR. Godwin even leads the team with nine red zone targets, but he has still yet to score a touchdown this season. Against zone, he has taken a backseat to Evans as he has seen a 20.9% target share and 26.7% first read share. Godwin will run about 65% of his routes against Christian Benford (72.7% catch rate and 100.9 passer rating) and Dane Jackson (80% catch rate and 118.9 passer rating). I would not be surprised to watch Godwin enjoy a massive positive regression game in an island contest. Week 8 Positional Value: WR2
Stefon Diggs: Diggs is the WR4 in fantasy points per game, ranking third in target share (30.9%), seventh in air-yard share (44.9%), and 12th in YPRR (2.73). Diggs ranks fourth in first-read share (41.3%) as one of only four wide receivers with above a 40% first-read share (Garrett Wilson, Diggs, A.J. Brown, and Davante Adams). If Allen attacks this secondary deep, Diggs will be a central cog as he ranks second on the team in deep targets behind only Gabriel Davis. Diggs will run about 62% of his routes against Carlton Davis (87.5% catch rate and 89.4 passer rating) and Jamel Dean (76.9% catch rate and 129.2 passer rating). Week 8 Positional Value: WR1
Gabriel Davis: Davis is the WR31 in fantasy as the Bills deep threat. He has a 13.9% target share, a 25.8% air-yard share, and 1.62 YPRR. Davis leads the team in deep targets, so if Allen is trying to torch this secondary deep (he will), then Davis should be his go-to. Against zone, Davis has seen his YPRR increase to 1.99 and his first-read share climb from 13.8% to 15.2%. Davis will run about 81% of his routes against Carlton Davis (87.5% catch rate and 89.4 passer rating) and Jamel Dean (76.9% catch rate and 129.2 passer rating). Week 8 Positional Value: WR3 with WR2 upside
Tight Ends
Dalton Kincaid: On the surface, Kincaid’s numbers don’t offer a ton of intrigue. Among 40 qualifying tight ends, he ranks 29th in route run rate, 27th in target share (10.6%), and 20th in YPRR (1.27), but the boom is coming. Dawson Know is now sidelined with a wrist injury, which means Kinciad should get a big bump in snaps and routes moving forward. Last week, the Bills finally decided to feature the talented rookie. He ranked seventh in target share (19.5%), fifth in YPRR (2.68), and seventh in first-read share (20.8%). This was a massive departure from his 8.8% target share and 11.4% first-read share in Weeks 1-6. The matchup this week is brutal for Kincaid. Tampa Bay has smothered tight ends to the 11th-fewest receiving yards and the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game. Volume will have to be his ally in Week, but he likely finds himself as the third option behind Diggs and Davis this week. Week 8 Positional Value: low-end TE1
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*All data utilized in this article courtesy of FantasyPros, PFF, SharpFootball Stats, Football Outsiders, FTN, Rotoviz, and Playerprofiler.com unless otherwise specified.*