Welcome back, everybody! We’ve got NFL Week 5 wrapped and a lot to recap from ALL the action! Hopefully, you have liked the new version of the 2023 usage report. While slightly altered from previous installments, I think it packs a punch that is exactly what fantasy managers want and NEED as they make transactions heading into the next week.
Again, we live in the year 2023, where bite-size and easy-to-digest content is the way, the masses consume content. My goal with this weekly piece is to provide you with the KEY ACTION items – waiver wire pickups, trade, add, drop, stash, buy, sell, start, sit, etc. – for your fantasy football team based on what happened the previous week. Let me do the work of scouring through the data, so you can just follow my lead. As my college marketing professor always said, “Keep it simple, stupid.” The KISS mantra is at its finest.
- Waiver Wire Advice
- Weekly Fantasy Football Expert Rankings
- Fantasy Football Start/Sit Advice
- Fantasy Football Trade Tools
As always, I’ll be citing data and what I watched on film from the weekend’s past matchups highlighting what matters most and what’s potentially just noise. I will make a strong effort to feature players who are coming off polarizing performances, as they are sure to be the ones fantasy managers have the most question marks about. Note that If I omit a certain player(s), it’s likely because their role/usage did not change from the week prior. Want to save valuable space for players whose stock is rising/falling, as this is where we can take advantage as savvy fantasy gamers.
Here is my entire Week 6 fantasy football forecast. Below we dive into a few notable players.
Fantasy Football Forecast
Washington Commanders
Add Logan Thomas/Antonio Gibson, Sell Terry McLaurin, Drop Jahan Dotson, Buy Brian Robinson
Washington’s defense got its doors blown off versus the Bears on Thursday night. Luckily, the negative game script set up nicely for a number of Commanders skill players to get there in fantasy football.
Tight end Logan Thomas continued to be super involved in the passing game, leading with a team-high 11 targets (23%) for 9 catches, 77 yards and 1 TD. Ran a route on 78% of the dropbacks. Told you to add him last week. Start him. Continues to be a target in the red zone (2 in Week 5). Great matchup versus the Falcons this week.
After Thomas, Curtis Samuel drew 7 targets catching 6 for 65 and 1 TD. Still 3rd in routes run.
Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson each only saw 5 targets. Not great. Hope you were able to ship off McLaurin before Thursday night.
Through five weeks – McLaurin/Dotson are tied with a 17% team Target share. Woof. Dotson can be dropped because his role is maxed out and I don’t envision his targets increasing too drastically. He has just been super inefficient ranking 8th-worst in yards per route this season.
In the backfield Thursday night, Antonio Gibson dominated the snaps with Washington facing a negative game script. 54% Gibson, 36% Brian Robinson. Gibson ran 27 routes to Robinson’s 18. However, Robinson still earned 4 targets catching all four for 33 yards. Gibson saw 6 targets catching four for 64 yards (including a nice deep ball down the sideline).
The game scripts for Washington when they fall behind result in scary rushing lines for B-Rob (6 for 10 yards) but the fact that he is continuing to earn designed receiving looks like me wanting to buy. Nobody else carries the ball for the Commanders. He also saw 6 carries by the start of the second quarter, and the run game was abandoned completely in the second half. They didn’t run once in the second half with an RB.
Conversely, Gibson’s own receiving chops and abilities are a reminder that he should be rostered. He owns a standalone appeal when Washington must air it out…and would be a bell cow if Robinson got hurt.
I think you want to acquire the Commanders RBs. Falcons and Giants are up next.
Chicago Bears
Add Darnell Mooney, Hold/Sell D.J. Moore, Buy Roschon Johnson, Add D’Onta Foreman
D.J. Moore could do no wrong on Thursday night football. The Bears’ prized trade acquisition went NUCLEAR catching nearly everything thrown his way more massive gains and production. 40% Target share (10 targets). 8 catches for 230 yards and 3 TDs. 142 yards after the catch.
Cole Kmet scored again and caught all five of his targets for 42 yards (20% Target share). Kmet won’t score every week, but his every down role puts him in starting fantasy tight end territory.
Darnell Mooney was really the only Bear that couldn’t get in on the action. He had ample opportunities – 4 targets, 95 air yards – but the connection was not there like it was between Fields/Moore.
Still, I think Mooney is interesting buy low/waiver wire add target because he still has a strong role in the offense. Ran a route on 81% of dropbacks.
Chicago’s schedule is also favorable with Minnesota, Las Vegas and the Chargers up over their next three games.
As for the backfield – Khalil Herbert dominated the snaps with a 66% snap share, then followed by fullback Khari Blasingame, then third in the pecking order was rookie Roschon Johnson after he was ruled out with a concussion.
Herbert has been the No. 1 guy for two straight games and totaled 10 carries for 76 yards versus the Commanders while seeing three targets. With the Bears’ offense playing much better, I’d expect them to continue feeding Herbert as RB1. But that will no longer be the case in the short term with Herbert slated to miss multiple weeks with an ankle injury. If you don’t have an IR spot, I’m cool dropping him.
As for Blasingame working ahead of RJ – it’s mostly just related to the injury. RJ totaled 3 carries for 19 yards but was not targeted (6 snaps, 9% snap share). Unsure if he will be ready by Week 6, but he’s going to start if he’s healthy. Also be sure to add D’Onta Foreman, who the Bears signed this offseason. He has been inactive most of the year, but likely be in the starting lineup in Week 6 and beyond with Herbert out.
I was on the sell/hold train with Bears players last week, and still feel the same about them. Obviously, Moore is coming off a career-best game, and on prime time no less. If you can trade him for a king’s ransom, think I’d do so. And by that, I mean like top-5 RB/WR talent.
Again, Moore has never been better than a fantasy WR2 throughout his entire NFL career. So come certain highs – as seen most recently – and certain lows that will come eventually. He can’t actually keep up with the pace he’s on. Most points scored above expectation through 5 games among all WRs. WR5 in points per game. WR40 in expected points per game.
But if you can’t, think he’s fine to hold with an easy schedule. Again, worst case scenario is fantasy WR2.
We saw last year that once this offense got going, they gained momentum. And I think we see them continue in the positive direction.
-Andrew Erickson
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