Every week we’ll bring you The Primer, a deep dive into every fantasy-relevant player from every NFL game of the week. You can find the full weekly Primer here. Below we dive into a few notable players ahead of this weekend’s games.
- Fantasy Football Start/Sit Advice
- Waiver Wire Picks
- Weekly Fantasy Football Expert Rankings
- Fantasy Football Trade Tools
Fantasy Football Outlook
Curtis Samuel: Samuel is the WR31 in fantasy with a 14.5% target share, 1.62 YPRR, and a 17.3% first-read share. He has finished as a top-24 fantasy wideout in each of the last three weeks (WR12, WR14, WR23). That run of top-24 finishes possibly stops this week. Against man coverage, his target share has dropped to 13.2%, and his first-read share has fallen to 13.5%. While this isn’t great, New York has struggled against slot receivers, and Samuel has a strong foothold in touchdown equity in this offense, so there’s an avenue for Samuel to continue his hot streak in Week 7. New York has allowed the highest PPR points per target and the tenth-most PPR points to slot receivers. Samuel leads the team in red zone targets. Samuel will run about 72% of his routes against Cor’Dale Flott (69.2% catch rate and 112.0 passer rating). Week 7 Positional Value: WR3/4
Jared Goff: Goff continues to play fantastic football. He is the QB6 in fantasy, ranking second in passing grade, third in yards per attempt, and first in adjusted completion rate. Goff should have time in the pocket this week against a defense that ranks 25th in pressure rate despite blitzing at the 12th-highest rate. If the blitz does get home, Goff could have some issues as he is 19th in passing grade and 18th in yards per attempt against the blitz. Baltimore has one of the best pass defenses in the NFL, containing quarterbacks with the second-lowest fantasy points per game, the second-lowest yards per attempt, and the fourth-lowest adjusted completion rate allowed. Week 7 Positional Value: QB2
Josh Downs: Downs might only be the WR48 in fantasy, but he has come on strong lately with WR3 or better finishes in three of his last four games (WR32, WR18, WR30). He has a 17.6% target share, 1.50 YPRR, and an 18.2% first-read share. The Browns deploy man coverage at the highest rate in the NFL (42.1%). Against man, Downs has been the Colts’ go-to with a team-leading 22.7% target share, 1.75 YPRR, and a 23.5% first-read share. Downs ranks 12th among wide receivers in red zone targets while also noting that he had four looks inside the 20 last week. Downs will run about 84% of his routes against Greg Newsome (60% catch rate and 78.2 passer rating). Week 7 Positional Value: WR3/4
D.J. Moore: Moore has been crushing this season as the WR9 in fantasy, but the helium has been taken out of his balloon. Justin Fields will be sidelined by his mangled thumb, which leaves Tyson Baegent starting in Week 7. Last week with Bagent under center, Moore still saw eight targets as he finished with five receptions and 51 receiving yards (WR37). Baegent will determine Moore’s ceiling and floor moving forward as long as Fields is sidelined. Moore is fourth among wideouts in deep targets. Among 99 qualifying wide receivers, Moore ranks 21st in target share (23.3%), fourth in air-yard share (45.9%), eighth in YPRR (2.97), and sixth in first-read share (37.4%). Bagent should know where his bread is buttered as a passer. Feed Moore, and you have a chance, rookie. Moore will run about 83% of his routes against Marcus Peters (66.7% catch rate and 99.3 passer rating) and Amik Robertson (62.5% catch rate and 92.7 passer rating). Week 7 Positional Value: WR3
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio