Hello and welcome to the Week 7 edition of Hoppen to Conclusions! This is where I, Sam Hoppen, will share some of my favorite charts, which are designed to give you an overview of the NFL landscape. These charts, along with the commentary that I provide, aim to help you make start or sit, DFS lineup construction, betting picks, or any other fantasy football decisions. There can be a lot of noise in fantasy football analysis, but these charts have been carefully selected to give you some of the most relevant and useful decision points.

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Fantasy Football Trends & Takeaways

Wide Receiver Usage

• Zay Flowers has quickly evolved into one of Lamar Jackson‘s favorite targets, if not his favorite. Flowers has out-targeted Mark Andrews in three of the five games that the two have played together. His role seems to have normalized a bit, too, as more of a downfield threat while Andrews is used in the intermediate area of the field. After games with an aDOT of 2.8 yards and 3.8 yards in Weeks 1 and 3, Flowers’ aDOT has been above 13 yards in two of the last three games. As for the other Ravens pass catchers, only once has a game with more than five targets been recorded (Nelson Agholor with six targets in Week 2). Rashod Bateman and Odell Beckham have both missed time due to injury already this season, and they only have one game between the two of them in which they’ve run a route on more than 70% of Lamar’s dropbacks. The aforementioned Agholor (63% routes run rate and 14% target share this season) has taken advantage of these two missing time, so he may be worth a speculative add in deeper leagues.
  • Action: hold Zay Flowers, add Nelson Agholor
• A lot has (rightfully) been made about the Falcons’ usage of Kyle Pitts, but a similar narrative surrounding Drake London has seemingly gone away, and for good reason! So far this season, London is running a route on 89% of the team’s dropbacks and has just one game below an 85% rate. Since his Week 1 goose egg in which he only got one target, London has seen at least six targets in each game, topping out at a season-high 12 targets on Sunday (also tied for a career-high). Atlanta’s league-low -8.2% PROE is still a concern, but London’s team-leading 0.51 WOPR and 25.9% first-read target share (via FantasyPoints) are clear signs that he is Desmond Ridder‘s number one target. Mack Hollins is the only other wide receiver in Atlanta with a target share north of 10% (he’s at 12%), so the rest of the group can be safely ignored.
  • Action: buy Drake London
• The Denver Broncos wide receiver group has been as confusing as any in fantasy football this season. Let’s start with Courtland Sutton who, as the WR30 in Half PPR leagues, is the only one to have shown any semblance of fantasy relevance this season. Sutton has just one game with a routes run rate below 90%, but that was Week 1 when he was at 89%. Still, Sutton is averaging just 6.2 targets per game for an uninspiring 22% target share. Then we have Jerry Jeudy. Fresh off of some heavy criticism from Steve Smith, Jeudy has just one game with more than 55 receiving yards and one game with more than five receptions. Both Jeudy and Sutton have a WOPR over 0.5, which is good, but Sutton’s seven end zone targets this season are what have kept him relevant. Lastly, there’s Marvin Mims, who has an absurd 4.24 yards per route run (2nd behind only Tyreek Hill), but the problem is that he’s only run 58 routes all season. He’s somehow still second on the Broncos in receiving yards despite that, but Sean Payton seems to have little intention of increasing his workload given Brandon Johnson has nearly twice as many routes run as Mims.
  • Action: hold Courtland Sutton, fade Jerry Jeudy, drop Marvin Mims

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