let’s roll out the red carpet for the 2023 Usage Report for Week 4, to prepare for success in Week 5. The Fantasy Football Week 5 Rankings Forecast featuring Waiver Wire Pickups and Buy Low/Sell High Trade Targets.

Let’s ride. Because the forecast calls for more action in the upcoming Week 5 slate.

For some overarching data points, check out my Twitter/X thread that covers some important nuggets from Week 4’s action…

My NFL Week 3 Fantasy Football…

Rapid Reactions?

And Major Takeaways?

— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) October 2, 2023

Along with snap counts…

Week 4 Fantasy Football Snap Counts

To prepare your fantasy team for Week 5…

— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) October 2, 2023

Note the bye weeks for Week 5:

• Cleveland Browns
• Los Angeles Chargers
• Seattle Seahawks
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers

And stay ahead of the game for Week 6 bye weeks:

• Green Bay Packers
• Pittsburgh Steelers

Fantasy Football Forecast

Detroit Lions

Add Jameson Williams, Buy Jahmyr Gibbs

David Montgomery returned to the lineup after a Week 3 absence and picked up where he left off as the Lions RB1. He played 71% of the snaps – like his Week 1 79% snap share – bogarting 32 carries for 121 yards and 3 rushing TDs. Added two more catches for 20 yards on 2 targets while leading the backfield with a 52% route participation.

Jahmyr Gibbs managers looks away. The rookie RB’s usage returned to “meh” with him playing just 37% of the snaps. Lowest snap rate since Week 1 (27%). Although the touches remained relatively high at 12. 8 for 40 rushing yards (5.0 yards per carry) and four receptions on five targets.

Montgomery has scored five touchdowns in just three games, and it’s pretty clear that role is not going away. And in positive game scripts versus plus-matchups, Monty will routinely see 20-plus carries. All in all, it is hard to not view him as at least a backend fantasy RB1 for the rest of the season as a grinder on an above-average offense. He has another great matchup on deck versus Carolina in Week 5.

As for Gibbs, I still think there’s enough equity in the offense for him to be a fantasy RB2 for the rest of season, with obvious room to grow if his role increases down the stretch (as it typically does for rookies). He’s flashed efficiency and as a pass-catcher (14% target share).

However, the chances of him unseating Montgomery is very unlikely without an injury. Say what you like about Montgomery stylistically as a rusher, but the Lions LOVE what he is doing. 9^th in success rate even at 3.8 yards per carry. Meanwhile, Gibbs ranks third worst in rushing success rate (36%) despite a superior 4.6 yards per carry.

If I needed wins now, I’d probably trade Gibbs for Monty straight up. In a vacuum I’d still like to buy low on Gibbs – as a bet on talent for a rookie RB that is still offering some value in PPR formats even as the RB2 on his own team. His role is somewhat similar to James Cook‘s – although Gibbs’ rush share is vastly inferior.

As for the receivers, there is nothing new to report. Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta remain weekly starts. The rookie tight end owns a 21% target share through four games. 4 for 56 on 5 targets last Thursday night.

But this week, second-year and former first-round WR Jameson Williams will return from his suspension after it was reduced from six to four games. Add him off waivers. Will be interested to see how much he plays from the get-go based on how well Josh Reynolds. Be wary that the Lions have shown us through their backfield that they will not prioritize young high-draft picks over productive veterans. Josh Reynolds has been steady as they come for the Lions with three games of 66 receiving yards and two touchdowns over the first quarter of the season.

I’d presume at worst that Jamo immediately takes over the WR4 role for Marvin Jones Jr. who has been a ghost since Week 1.

Green Bay Packers

Buy Aaron Jones, Romeo Doubs, Hold/Sell Christian Watson

The Packers fell behind at home for the second straight week but were unable to complete the comeback like in Week 3. The additional firepower of Aaron Jones and Christian Watson did not offer the boom to the offense that many had hoped.

Jones only played 38% of the snaps off the hamstring injury to A.J. Dillon‘s 67% snap share. Jones finished with five carries for 18 yards while Dillon went 5 for 11 (woof). Jones caught one of his two targets for -4 yards.

It was a disappointment for managers that threw Jones back in their starting lineups, but the game script made it easy for the Packers to limit his touches. Also reported he was on a snap count. Would fully expect Jones to get back up to speed with no relapses and 10 days to rest before they play the Raiders in Week 5. Schedule is REAL good between the Raiders, Bye Week, Broncos, Vikings, Rams and Steelers.

Buy low on Jones. Because through three weeks, Dillon has shown no reason to have a larger role in the Packers offense. Makes sense now why the Packers were rumored to be in the Jonathan Taylor market during the offseason.

As for the receivers, not much changed with Watson back in the lineup. Romeo Doubs remained the target leader, snatching 9 balls for 95 yards on 13 targets (38% target share). Through 4 games, Doubs has 20 catches for 224 yards and 3 TDs on a 24% target share.

Jayden Reed caught a long pass, finishing with 55 yards. He caught another ball in the end zone, but was ruled out of bounds. Also caught a 2-point conversion. The Packers love using Reed in the red zone as they do Doubs.

Each has 7 red-zone targets and 4 red-zone catches this season. Doubs has 3 TDs to Reed’s 2.

Luke Musgrave left the game with a concussion – so he will presumably miss Week 5. Although the extra rest may allow him to return quicker than most players. In his place, Josiah Deguara and Tucker Kraft combined for 6 catches for 39 yards on 6 targets. Deguara ran many routes (60%) and played the most TE snaps (63%).

Watson only ran a route on 48% of the dropbacks, as he was on a snap count. However, he was targeted on 20% of his routes (4) and he caught two for 25 yards including a wide-open TD at the goal line. However, this was after Doubs got tackled inside the 5-yard line after A.J. Dillon was stuffed (shocked).

His routes will increase (like Jones) in Week 5, making him somebody who’s value could increase. However, I think I am in a position where I’d like to sell high on Watson after he scored. Because his path to being the No. 1 WR has changed drastically in my opinion. Doubs, Jayden Reed and Musgrave have all shown they can earn targets and be big parts of the Packers offense. If someone is valuing Watson as high as his Round 4 draft capital was during draft season, I’d capitalize.

And although I have been low on Doubs, I might be changing my tune slightly after another strong outing. It’s clear that he and Jordan Love have a connection, and that didn’t change in Week 4 with Watson back in the starting lineup. Doubs was viewed as a candidate who could lead the Packers in catches this season, and so far, he is coming through on the lofty expectations. In PPR leagues, I think he’s another player to seek in trade with his trade value likely not matching his production thus far. Watson’s return might make him expendable despite how productive he has been. The guy has 12-plus targets in back-to-back games. 26.5% target rate per route run.

Atlanta Falcons

Buy Bijan Robinson, Sell Drake London, Drop Kyle Pitts

Desmond Ridder was Desmond Midder. He led the Falcons’ offense with 191 passing yards, completing 19 of his 31 attempts. He threw one touchdown pass along with two horrible interceptions.

Bijan Robinson was the standout running back for Atlanta, rushing for 105 yards on 14 carries. He consistently moved the chains and helped in the receiving game. 5 catches for 32 yards on 5 targets. 76% snap share was very strong. Leads the team in targets through four games (21% target share).

He continues to be a strong buy-low target. Meanwhile, Tyler Allgeier‘s snaps continue to decrease (26%).

Texans and Commanders are the next two matchups. Falcons tend to play much better at home than on the road.

In the passing game, Jonnu Smith was Ridder’s top target…. receiving 6 passes for 95 yards (6 targets). Wish I could say this was a fluke, but he’s been involved in the offense for the last three games (20% target share) Woof.

Kyle Pitts…2 for 21. And it’s not a usage issue because Pitts is still running a full allotment of routes as a receiver. The only “change” is improved QB play, which doesn’t seem likely to be coming anytime soon. Pitts must hit on a deep ball (39% team-leading air yards share this season) to actually pay off.

At this point, I am cool dropping him. Let somebody else roster this potential land mine.

Drake London caught a touchdown (came close to another) providing the Falcons with a much-needed scoring play. Led team with 7 targets, catching three for 28 yards (23% target share, 91 air yards). Would try and sell high after he scored. Tied for third on the team with 11 catches this season with just an 18% target share. Getting by on TD/red-zone production. 6 red-zone targets lead the team.

Ask yourself this when it comes to Falcons players. Do you think any of them can post back-to-back weeks of production? If the answer is no (yes, the correct answer) you have to move on. If you want to wait another week (better projection playing at home in Week 5) then you might get more on your return.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Buy Travis Etienne Jr., Calvin Ridley, Sell Christian Kirk

Trevor Lawrence had an okay day, amassing 207 passing yards on 23 completions. He threw one touchdown pass to Calvin Ridley. Ridley only caught two passes including the 30-yard touchdown (7% target share). The fact that he has been this little involved and disappointing the last three weeks (w/o Zay Jones last two weeks) makes Week 1 look like a mirage. He just hasn’t looked anything like that. With Jones coming back it adds another layer of complexion to the target pecking order.

Christian Kirk was Lawrence’s primary target, with 12 targets resulting in 8 receptions for 84 yards (40% target share, 46% air yards share).

Evan Engram also contributed significantly with 7 receptions for 59 yards (8 targets), providing Lawrence with a reliable short-to-intermediate target. Engram has really been the one constant in the Jags offense through all four games.

Last week, I recommended that you sell high on Kirk and buy low on Ridley. Both guys were productive in Week 4. So I think I am going to continue my stance of buying low on Ridley. Not because I think he is a locked-and-loaded WR1 rest of the season, but because I think he’s a “safer” option to chase with Jones returning. Kirk has undoubtedly benefitted the most from Jones’ absence in the last two and a half weeks. And when Jones returns, it could spell trouble for Kirk. Sell high especially ahead of a matchup versus the Bills who have been tough on slot WRs this season. They just held Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle in check in Week 4. Meanwhile, Ridley should see more favorable looks on the outside as the Bills’ defense just lost cornerback, Tre’Davious White, with a season-ending torn ACL injury.

The Jaguars’ running game, led by Travis Etienne, aimed to control the clock. Despite gaining only 55 yards on 20 carries, the ground attack helped sustain drives and control field position. No big runs (long of 7). Also tallied three catches. 23 touches. 85% snap share. Continues to be a bellcow.

Still think ETN’s usage is not reflecting his final box scores. The Jags offense is still finding their footing, as they have had to shuffle the OL. They get back starting tackle Cam Robinson back soon from suspension.

The offense will need to be up to the tall order with the Bills storming the castle in their second London game in a row in Week 5.

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