Every week we’ll bring you The Primer, a deep dive into every fantasy-relevant player from every NFL game of the week. You can find the full weekly Primer here. Below we dive into a few notable players ahead of this weekend’s games.
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Fantasy Football Outlook
Dallas Goedert: Goedert is the TE7 in fantasy. He’s been heating up with at least 77 receiving yards and scores in two of his last three games. This shapes up as another monster outing for Goedert. He ranks seventh in deep targets and fifth in red zone targets among tight ends. Since Week 5, among 42 qualifying tight ends, Goedert ranks ninth in target share (19.3%), third in YPRR (2.38), fourth in first-read share (25.4%), and sixth in fantasy points per route run. Since Washington made the change in their cornerback rotation, they have been a turnstile against tight ends. Over the last two weeks, they have allowed the most fantasy points, the most receiving touchdowns, and the ninth-highest yards per reception to tight ends. Week 8 Positional Value: Top 3 TE this week
Diontae Johnson: Johnson returned to the lineup last week with an 85% route run rate, a 24.0% target share, a 30.9% air-yard share, 3.29 YPRR, and a 35.3% first-read share (tied with George Pickens for the team lead). Johnson was the intermediate threat with a 9.8 aDOT. Johnson finished as the WR23 in fantasy last week and now gets to face a secondary that has given up the 11th-highest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Week 8 Positional Value: WR2/3
Darrell Henderson: Henderson jumped right back into the rotation last week like he never left, playing 57% of the snaps with 19 touches and 66 total yards to finish the week as the Rb17. Henderson was impressive last week. Among 74 running backs with at least 18 carries, he is 14th in explosive run rate and 29th in missed tackles forced per attempt. Those numbers will play, no doubt. While Dallas has allowed the ninth-highest explosive run rate, all of their other metrics scream that this is a tough run defense. They have contained backs with the second-lowest missed tackles allowed per attempt and the ninth-lowest yards after contact per attempt and yards per carry to gap runs (Henderson 72% gap). Henderson’s snap rate could climb even higher this week, which puts him in the volume-based RB2 basket. Week 8 Positional Value: Low-end RB2
Chris Olave: Olave has been massively underperforming as he and Carr are trying to get on the same page. Among 105 qualifying wide receivers, he is 21st in target share (24.4%), 14th in air-yard share (39.5%), and 17th in first-read share (32.0%), but he is only 44th in YPRR (1.75) and the WR25 in fantasy with the most unrealized air yards in the NFL. Better days are ahead for Olave. He leads all wide receivers in deep targets. Indy has the second-highest rate of zone coverage (83.0%). Against zone, Olave’s air-yard share has increased to 41.7%, and he leads the team with four end-zone targets. Olave will run about 58% of his routes against Jaylon Jones (44.4% catch rate and 95.1 passer rating) and Darrell Baker Jr. (61.5% catch rate and 121.0 passer rating). The Colts have toughened up against perimeter wide receivers recently. Since Week 4, they have allowed the tenth-lowest PPR points per target to perimeter wideouts. Week 8 Positional Value: WR2
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