Fantasy Football Outlook: Chris Olave, D.J. Chark, Gabe Davis, Jahmyr Gibbs

Every week we’ll bring you The Primer, a deep dive into every fantasy-relevant player from every NFL game of the week. You can find the full weekly Primer here. Below we dive into a few notable players ahead of this weekend’s games.

Fantasy Football Outlook

Gabriel Davis: This doesn’t set up like a Davis spike week. Davis is the Bills deep threat. He ranks seventh among wide receivers in deep targets and sixth in aDOT. Jacksonville has held passing attacks to the 13th-lowest deep passer rating and deep-adjusted completion rate. Davis has a 13.3% target share, a 31.9% air yard share, and a 1.86 YPRR. He is tied for third on the team with only two red zone targets, so even if you’re hoping for a touchdown to save his day, it doesn’t look good. Davis will run about 83% of his routes against Campbell and Williams. Week 5 Positional Value: WR3/4

Jahmyr Gibbs: In Montgomery’s three games played, Gibbs has played 27-48% of the snaps, averaging 11.6 touches and 55.6 total yards. Gibbs has been efficient with his touches overall. The biggest problem is his zero touchdowns. Among 58 qualifying running backs, Gibbs ranks seventh in explosive run rate, fifth in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 25th in yards after contact per attempt. Gibbs was supposed to make his money in the passing game this season, but that’s where his biggest struggles have occurred. Among 40 qualifying running backs, he is seventh in targets, but he is 17th in receiving yards and 15th in YPRR. Volume has not been a problem for Gibbs. It has been pass game inefficiency and the lack of touchdowns. In a plus matchup, Gibbs is a strong flex play. Week 5 Positional Value: RB3 with upside

D.J. Chark: Chark was second in the team in route run rate (69.2%) last week. Chark has a 12.2% target share and a 31.8% air-yard share as the team’s deep threat. Chark leads the team in deep targets (35.7% of his target volume). This doesn’t look like a Chark week against a Detroit secondary that is 15th in passer rating and 17th in adjusted completion rate against the deep ball. Chark will run about 77% of his routes against Cameron Sutton (57.9% catch rate and 82.8 passer rating) and Jerry Jacobs (64.5% catch rate and 87.6 passer rating). Week 5 Positional Value: WR4/5

Chris Olave: Olave leads the Saints’ wide receivers with a 26.6% target share, a 42.7% air-yard share, and a 33.3% first-read share. Olave ranks tenth in receiving grade and 20th in YPRR. Olave should be fed this week against New England’s man coverage heavy approach. Against man coverage, Olave has goggled up targets this season with a monster 38.5% target share and a 38.1% first-read share. He has 3.57 YPRR against man coverage this year. Olave will run about 52% of his routes against Shaun Wade (69.2% catch rate and 95.7 passer rating) and J.C. Jackson (46.2% catch rate and 72.0 passer rating). Week 5 Positional Value: WR2