Fantasy Football Outlook: C.J. Stroud, Derek Carr, Alexander Mattison, Calvin Ridley

Every week we’ll bring you The Primer, a deep dive into every fantasy-relevant player from every NFL game of the week. You can find the full weekly Primer here. Below we dive into a few notable players ahead of this weekend’s games.

Fantasy Football Outlook

Calvin Ridley: Ridley is the WR46 in fantasy as he’s seen massive week-to-week volatility. He has two weeks as a top-ten fantasy wide receiver, but he also has four games where he hasn’t topped eight fantasy points. Overall he has a 19.3% target share, a 37.4% air-yard share, 1.63 YPRR, and a 23.6% first-read share. The struggles have been real as he ranks 56th out of 81 qualifying wide receivers in open score. Per the above tables, Ridley has been better against man coverage this season which will help him this week against the Steelers who utilize man coverage at the fifth-highest rate (37.5%) in the NFL. This is a neutral matchup for Ridley against the Steelers who are 15th in PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Ridley will run about 85% of his routes against Joey Porter Jr. (10% catch rate and 0.0 passer rating) and Levi Wallace (61.7% catch rate and 100.8 passer rating). Week 8 Positional Value: WR3

Alexander Mattison: Mattison’s standing in this backfield is on shaky ground. He has played 51-53% of the snaps in two of his last three games, averaging ten touches and 44 total yards as Cam Akers has eaten into his workload. Among 59 qualifying backs, Mattison ranks 35th in explosive run rate and 39th in yards after contact per attempt. Mattison has received every running back rushing attempt inside the red zone over the last three weeks, but Minnesota leads the NFL in red zone passing rate, so his touchdown equity on the ground is nerfed anyway. The matchup is fantastic this week, so I’m not ruling out Mattison breaking off a chunk run or two in this game. Green Bay has allowed the eighth-highest explosive run rate, the seventh-highest missed tackle rate per attempt, and the ninth-highest yards after contact per attempt. Week 8 Positional Value: RB3 with RB2 upside

Derek Carr: Carr has stacked back-to-back QB1 outings (QB10, QB9). Since Week 6, he has averaged 52.5 passing attempts, 327 passing yards, and one passing touchdown. Carr’s efficiency metrics have been quite bad. Among 33 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 23rd in passing grade, 28th in yards per attempt, and 30th in adjusted completion rate. What has propped him up is the wondrous volume as he is sixth in passing attempts and 14th in passing yards. Indy has been a middling pass defense, ranking 14th in passing yards per game, 16th in yards per attempt, and 21st in adjusted completion rate allowed. The Colts have the second-highest rate of zone coverage (83.0%). Against zone, Carr is 17th in adjusted completion rate and 24th in fantasy points per dropback. Week 8 Positional Value: QB2 with QB1 upside

C.J. Stroud: Stroud is the QB13 in fantasy, ranking 16th in passing grade, fourth in yards per attempt, and tenth in passer rating with the fourth-lowest turnover-worthy throw rate. Stroud is 13th in fantasy points per dropback. Stroud will tear the Panthers’ secondary apart this week. Carolina hasn’t been able to stop anyone from passing, especially deep. The Panthers have allowed the sixth-highest yards per attempt, ninth-highest passer rating, and the 11th-highest adjusted completion rate. Against deep passing, they have been one of the worst defenses in the league, giving up the sixth-highest deep passer rating and the seventh-highest deep-adjusted completion rate. Stroud will continue to shut the mouths of S2 stans in Week 8. Week 8 Positional Value: QB1