Fantasy Football Outlook: C.J. Stroud, D’Andre Swift, Tua Tagovailoa, Samaje Perine

Every week we’ll bring you The Primer, a deep dive into every fantasy-relevant player from every NFL game of the week. You can find the full weekly Primer here. Below we dive into a few notable players ahead of this weekend’s games.

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Fantasy Football Outlook

C.J. Stroud: Stroud has been balling out, especially when you zoom in and look at his last two games. In that sample, he ranks ninth in passing grade and third in yards per attempt. He also has the third-lowest turnover-worthy throw rate and fourth-highest fantasy points per dropback. Over the last three weeks, he has finished as the QB13, QB12, and QB10 in fantasy. The Falcons are not a pass defense to fear if you stay away from A.J. Terrell. The Falcons have allowed the ninth-most passing touchdowns while also surrendering the 14th-highest passer rating and the 12th-most fantasy points when targeted 20 or more yards downfield. Week 5 Positional Value: Borderline QB1

Tua Tagovailoa: Tagovailoa continues to set the league on fire. He is the QB8 in fantasy, ranking first in passing grade, first in yards per attempt, and ninth in adjusted completion rate. He is also sixth in fantasy points per dropback. Tagovailoa should shred the Giants’ man coverage (42-46% of snaps) this week. Tagovailoa ranks second in yards per attempt, first in passing touchdowns, and third in passer rating against man coverage. New York has allowed the 13th-highest yards per attempt and 12th-highest passer rating while also ranking 16th in fantasy points per game given up to quarterbacks. Week 5 Positional Value: QB1

D’Andre Swift: Swift is the RB14 in fantasy, averaging 22 touches and 132.6 total yards since taking over as the team’s starter. He’s played 54-75% of the snaps weekly. Swift is the team’s goal-line back. Over the last two weeks, he has played 80% of the snaps when the team is inside the five-yard line and 70% of the snaps when they are inside the ten-yard line. Swift ranks 33rd in missed tackles forced per attempt and 19th in yards after contact per attempt. He faces a Rams’ run defense that has surrendered the 11th-highest explosive run rate while ranking 18th in yards after contact per attempt. Los Angeles has given up the fourth-highest yards per carry to zone runs (Swift 88.1% zone!!). Swift should be a focal point of the offensive game plan this week for Philly. Week 5 Positional Value: RB1

Samaje Perine: Perine dominated snaps in the second half of last week’s game after Javonte Williams left the game. He played 60% of the snaps (McLaughlin 32%). He out-snapped McLaughlin nine to four on passing plays and six to one in the red zone. Overall, he played 46% of the snaps with eight touches and 35 total yards. Perine has been lumbering along all season. Among 58 qualifying backs, he has the ninth-highest stuff rate, the third-lowest missed tackles forced per attempt, and the fifth-lowest yards after contact per attempt. He has not recorded one explosive run this season. He’s essentially Denver’s Dalvin Cook. He could again get a crack at the work first this week. Once Sean Payton sees him run for two yards and a cloud of dust consistently again, we should see more McLaughlin. New York has the 11th-lowest stuff rate while ranking 15th in yards after contact per attempt. The Jets have allowed the 14th-highest yards per carry to gap runs (Perine 72% gap). Week 5 Positional Value: RB3