Fantasy Football Outlook: Brian Robinson, Desmond Ridder, Sam LaPorta, Gabriel Davis

Every week we’ll bring you The Primer, a deep dive into every fantasy-relevant player from every NFL game of the week. You can find the full weekly Primer here. Below we dive into a few notable players ahead of this weekend’s games.

Fantasy Football Outlook

Brian Robinson: This is a beautiful bounceback matchup for Robinson. Since Week 3, his stock has plummeted. With the Commanders facing a lot of negative game script (ninth-most plays since Week 3, trailing by eight or more points), his snaps have hovered between 36-37% in two of his last four games. Across his last four games, Robinson has averaged 12 touches and 55 total yards. Among 53 qualifying backs, Robinson ranks 18th in explosive run rate, 30th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 18th in yards after contact per attempt. New York has given up the fifth-highest explosive run rate, the ninth-highest yards after contact per attempt, and the sixth-highest yards per carry to zone runs (Robinson 67.5% zone). Week 7 Positional Value: RB2

Desmond Ridder: Ridder is the QB20 in fantasy points per game with three QB1 outings (QB10, QB6, QB6) this season. During his recent hot streak, while his fantasy production has been strong, his actual level of play on the field has been middling. Since Week 4, among 32 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 28th in passing grade and 27th in adjusted completion rate with the fourth-highest turnover-worthy play rate. We still haven’t seen much rushing production from Ridder, and I don’t see that changing. He has only one game with more than 20 rushing yards. Tampa Bay has utilized zone coverage at the sixth-highest rate (80.8% per Fantasy Points Data). Against zone, among 30 qualifying quarterbacks, Ridder ranks 19th in passer rating, 24th in adjusted completion rate, and 21st in fantasy points per dropback. Tampa Bay has fielded a strong pass defense, allowing the 12th-lowest passer rating and tenth-lowest adjusted completion rate while ranking 19th in fantasy points per game allowed to quarterbacks. Week 7 Positional Value: QB2

Sam LaPorta: Sammy Ballgame continues to do Sammy Ballgame things. He is the TE3 in fantasy. He ranks third in target share (20.7%), fourth in YPRR (2.14), fourth in air-yard share (23.0%), and eighth in first-read share among 46 qualifying tight ends. Ballgame is seventh in deep targets, and 14th in red zone looks among tight ends. LaPorta is a must-start TE1 weekly, but this week, he draws another brutal matchup. Baltimore has held tight ends to the second-fewest receiving yards and yards per reception (zero touchdowns). Week 7 Positional Value: TE1

Gabriel Davis: This is likely a week to consider sitting Davis. Against man coverage, Davis has a 15.4% target share, a 28.8% air-yard share, 1.56 YPRR, and a 12.9% first-read share. His YPRR against zone jumps to 2.19, while his first-read share bumps to 17.5%. This isn’t a great matchup, considering the coverages for Davis, but New England has allowed the 13th-highest adjusted completion rate and the 14th-highest CPOE to deep passing. I won’t be surprised if Davis gets loose for one deep score and then is silent for the rest of the night. That makes him a dart throw WR3/4 type this week who is probably better off on your bench. Week 7 Positional Value: WR3/4