Hello and welcome to the Week 6 edition of Hoppen to Conclusions! This is where I, Sam Hoppen, will share some of my favorite charts, which are designed to give you an overview of the NFL landscape. These charts, along with the commentary that I provide, aim to help you make start or sit, DFS lineup construction, betting picks, or any other fantasy football decisions. There can be a lot of noise in fantasy football analysis, but these charts have been carefully selected to give you some of the most relevant and useful decision points. Here are all of my takeaways ahead of Week 6. Below we dive into a few notable players.
- Waiver Wire Advice
- Weekly Fantasy Football Expert Rankings
- Fantasy Football Start/Sit Advice
- Fantasy Football Trade Tools
Fantasy Football Outlook
Wide Receiver Usage
- The San Francisco 49ers are the best team in football, but they may not be the best team for fantasy purposes. Christian McCaffrey is great, phenomenal, absurd, all of the above – you’re getting everything you asked for from him. The wide receivers, though, have been much more boom-or-bust. Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk currently sit next to each other as the WR16 and WR17 in Half PPR this season, respectively. Let’s start with Aiyuk, who has two games with at least 17 fantasy points, but two other games with fewer than eight fantasy points. This has happened despite running a route on 80% of dropbacks in each of those four games he’s played (he missed Week 3). But Aiyuk is playing a much different role this year as his 15.7-yard average depth of target is by far a career-high. With this downfield role, he’s earned between six and eight targets in every game, but the results of those targets are a lot more variable. Onto Deebo, who had a target share of at least 25% in each of the first three weeks, but just a 7% target share across San Francisco’s last two games. Fortunately, his rushing workload (average of 3.2 carries per game) hasn’t changed much from last year. Ultimately, I think these two will continue to have up-and-down weeks, but the ceiling is high enough that they’re always worth a start.
- Action: hold Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel
- Green Bay’s wide receivers were thriving early in the year when Jordan Love had thrown for six touchdowns in the first two weeks. Romeo Doubs had recorded at least 18 PPR points in three of the first five games with 12 and 13 targets in back-to-back games. It hasn’t quite been the same recently, though, as the offense has regressed a bit. Green Bay welcomed Christian Watson back to the fold in Week 4 with limited participation in the game (just a 48% routes run rate), but he was ramped up quickly to an 85% rate on Monday Night Football. Doubs has also seen his route rate grow each week, topping out at 97% the other night, but he only had four total targets to show for it. Jayden Reed appears to have been diminished to a more ancillary role upon Watson’s return as his routes have dropped in each of the last three weeks. I still think Reed is a fine bench stash, but Doubs and Watson are clearly the top receivers of this group and should be treated as such.
- Action: buy Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson
-Sam Hoppen
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