Fantasy Football Outlook: Alvin Kamara, Christian Watson, Christian Kirk, DeVonta Smith

Every week we’ll bring you The Primer, a deep dive into every fantasy-relevant player from every NFL game of the week. You can find the full weekly Primer here. Below we dive into a few notable players ahead of this weekend’s games.

Fantasy Football Outlook

DeVonta Smith: Smith faded into the background with Brown going ham since Week 3. Since that time, he has had a 17.6% target share, a 25.3% air-yard share, 1.07 YPRR, and a 19.6% first-read share (third on the team). He is the WR38 in fantasy, ranking ninth in deep targets. Smith has also been on the end of some misfortune as he is eighth in unrealized air yards, so all hope is not lost for him to turn around his season. He only has two red zone targets this season, so if he scores, it will have to be on a downfield toss. Smith will run about 69% of his routes against Benjamin St. Juste (68.3% catch rate and 95.0 passer rating) and Kendall Fuller (68.3% catch rate and 82.9 passer rating). Week 8 Positional Value: WR3

Christian Kirk: Kirk has been the mainstay for the Jacksonville passing attack as the WR21 in fantasy. Kirk should be the focal point for Lawrence this week against a Steelers secondary that has the fifth-highest rate of man coverage (37.5%) in the NFL. Against man, Kirk’s target share has inflated to 30.8% and his first-read share has been a whopping 32.4%. Kirk will run about 71% of his routes against the Steelers new slot corner Patrick Peterson (59.4% catch rate and 116.5 passer rating). Kirk should have no problems burning the former All-Pro. Week 8 Positional Value: WR2 with WR1 upside

Christian Watson: Watson is practicing in full, so the injury scare last week seems to be a false alarm. In the two games Watson has played this season as a full-time player, he has commanded a 19.4% target share, a 44.8% air-yard share, and a 20.9% first-read share (tied for first) with 2.51 YPRR. Over that short span, Watson leads the team with four deep targets, which account for 33.3% of his target volume. Watson will run about 70% of his routes against Byron Murphy (since Week 4: 72.2% catch rate and 109.5 passer rating) and Akyleb Evans (since Week 4: 76.9% catch rate and 91.5 passer rating). Week 8 Positional Value: WR3

Alvin Kamara: Kamara has been nothing short of a godsend for ailing fantasy rosters as the RB3 in fantasy points per game. He is seventh in opportunity share, 19th in weighted opportunities, and first among running backs in targets despite playing only four games. Kamara has averaged 26.1 touches and 109.6 total yards. Yes, you read that correctly. 26.1 touches per game. Kamara has two 14-target games this season. While the volume has been amazing, Kamara’s tackle-breaking ability was vaporized last season, and it’s degraded even more this season. Among 59 qualifying backs, he ranks 39th in explosive run rate, 47th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 57th in yards after contact per attempt. Indy has been a tough team to run on, with the 12th-highest stuff rate and fifth-lowest yards after contact per attempt allowed. Look for the Saints to “run through the air” against Indy’s zone defense. Kamara leads all running backs with a 22.8% target share while also sitting at seventh in YPRR. Against zone coverage, his target share has been a mind-blowing 28.6%. That’s alpha wide receiver-type usage at the running back position. Week 8 Positional Value: RB1