Welcome back, everybody! We’ve got NFL Week 5 wrapped and a lot to recap from ALL the action! Hopefully, you have liked the new version of the 2023 usage report. While slightly altered from previous installments, I think it packs a punch that is exactly what fantasy managers want and NEED as they make transactions heading into the next week.
Again, we live in the year 2023, where bite-size and easy-to-digest content is the way, the masses consume content. My goal with this weekly piece is to provide you with the KEY ACTION items – waiver wire pickups, trade, add, drop, stash, buy, sell, start, sit, etc. – for your fantasy football team based on what happened the previous week. Let me do the work of scouring through the data, so you can just follow my lead. As my college marketing professor always said, “Keep it simple, stupid.” The KISS mantra is at its finest.
As always, I’ll be citing data and what I watched on film from the weekend’s past matchups highlighting what matters most and what’s potentially just noise. I will make a strong effort to feature players who are coming off polarizing performances, as they are sure to be the ones fantasy managers have the most question marks about. Note that If I omit a certain player(s), it’s likely because their role/usage did not change from the week prior. Want to save valuable space for players whose stock is rising/falling, as this is where we can take advantage as savvy fantasy gamers.
And for those tuning into the usage report for the first time; the idea behind the usage report has always been about identifying which players are running routes, seeing high snap shares, and earning high-value targets as these tend to be precursors for future fantasy production. And sometimes they don’t always show up in the normal box score.
So, without further ado…let’s roll out the red carpet for the 2023 Usage Report for Week 5, to prepare for success in Week 6. The Fantasy Football Week 6 Rankings Forecast features Waiver Wire Pickups and Buy Low/Sell High Trade Targets.
Let’s ride. Because the forecast calls for more action in the upcoming Week 6 slate.
For some overarching data points, check out my Twitter/X thread that covers some important nuggets from Week 5’s action…
Along with snap counts…
Note the bye weeks from Week 5:
- Cleveland Browns
- Los Angeles Chargers
- Seattle Seahawks
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Week 6 bye weeks:
- Green Bay Packers
- Pittsburgh Steelers
Lookahead Week 7 bye weeks:
- Carolina Panthers
- Cincinnati Bengals
- Dallas Cowboys
- Houston Texans
- New York Jets
- Tennessee Titans
Fantasy Football Forecast
Washington Commanders
Add Logan Thomas/Antonio Gibson, Sell Terry McLaurin, Drop Jahan Dotson, Buy Brian Robinson
Washington’s defense got its doors blown off versus the Bears on Thursday night. Luckily, the negative game script set up nicely for a number of Commanders skill players to get there in fantasy football.
Tight end Logan Thomas continued to be super involved in the passing game, leading with a team-high 11 targets (23%) for 9 catches, 77 yards and 1 TD. Ran a route on 78% of the dropbacks. Told you to add him last week. Start him. Continues to be a target in the red zone (2 in Week 5). Great matchup versus the Falcons this week.
After Thomas, Curtis Samuel drew 7 targets catching 6 for 65 and 1 TD. Still 3rd in routes run.
Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson each only saw 5 targets. Not great. Hope you were able to ship off McLaurin before Thursday night.
Through five weeks – McLaurin/Dotson are tied with a 17% team Target share. Woof. Dotson can be dropped because his role is maxed out and I don’t envision his targets increasing too drastically. He has just been super inefficient ranking 8th-worst in yards per route this season.
In the backfield Thursday night, Antonio Gibson dominated the snaps with Washington facing a negative game script. 54% Gibson, 36% Brian Robinson. Gibson ran 27 routes to Robinson’s 18. However, Robinson still earned 4 targets catching all four for 33 yards. Gibson saw 6 targets catching four for 64 yards (including a nice deep ball down the sideline).
The game scripts for Washington when they fall behind result in scary rushing lines for B-Rob (6 for 10 yards) but the fact that he is continuing to earn designed receiving looks like me wanting to buy. Nobody else carries the ball for the Commanders. He also saw 6 carries by the start of the second quarter, and the run game was abandoned completely in the second half. They didn’t run once in the second half with an RB.
Conversely, Gibson’s own receiving chops and abilities are a reminder that he should be rostered. He owns a standalone appeal when Washington must air it out…and would be a bell cow if Robinson got hurt.
I think you want to acquire the Commanders RBs. Falcons and Giants are up next.
Chicago Bears
Add Darnell Mooney, Hold/Sell D.J. Moore, Buy Roschon Johnson, Add D’Onta Foreman
D.J. Moore could do no wrong on Thursday night football. The Bears’ prized trade acquisition went NUCLEAR catching nearly everything thrown his way more massive gains and production. 40% Target share (10 targets). 8 catches for 230 yards and 3 TDs. 142 yards after the catch.
Cole Kmet scored again and caught all five of his targets for 42 yards (20% Target share). Kmet won’t score every week, but his every down role puts him in starting fantasy tight end territory.
Darnell Mooney was really the only Bear that couldn’t get in on the action. He had ample opportunities – 4 targets, 95 air yards – but the connection was not there like it was between Fields/Moore.
Still, I think Mooney is interesting buy low/waiver wire add target because he still has a strong role in the offense. Ran a route on 81% of dropbacks.
Chicago’s schedule is also favorable with Minnesota, Las Vegas and the Chargers up over their next three games.
As for the backfield – Khalil Herbert dominated the snaps with a 66% snap share, then followed by fullback Khari Blasingame, then third in the pecking order was rookie Roschon Johnson after he was ruled out with a concussion.
Herbert has been the No. 1 guy for two straight games and totaled 10 carries for 76 yards versus the Commanders while seeing three targets. With the Bears’ offense playing much better, I’d expect them to continue feeding Herbert as RB1. But that will no longer be the case in the short term with Herbert slated to miss multiple weeks with an ankle injury. If you don’t have an IR spot, I’m cool dropping him.
As for Blasingame working ahead of RJ – it’s mostly just related to the injury. RJ totaled 3 carries for 19 yards but was not targeted (6 snaps, 9% snap share). Unsure if he will be ready by Week 6, but he’s going to start if he’s healthy. Also be sure to add D’Onta Foreman, who the Bears signed this offseason. He has been inactive most of the year, but likely be in the starting lineup in Week 6 and beyond with Herbert out.
I was on the sell/hold train with Bears players last week, and still feel the same about them. Obviously, Moore is coming off a career-best game, and on prime time no less. If you can trade him for a king’s ransom, think I’d do so. And by that, I mean like top-5 RB/WR talent.
Again, Moore has never been better than a fantasy WR2 throughout his entire NFL career. So come certain highs – as seen most recently – and certain lows that will come eventually. He can’t actually keep up with the pace he’s on. Most points scored above expectation through 5 games among all WRs. WR5 in points per game. WR40 in expected points per game.
But if you can’t, think he’s fine to hold with an easy schedule. Again, worst case scenario is fantasy WR2.
We saw last year that once this offense got going, they gained momentum. And I think we see them continue in the positive direction.
New Orleans Saints
Add Kendre Miller, Sell Chris Olave, Alvin Kamara
Alvin Kamara led the ground game for the Saints with 22 rushing attempts, gaining 80 yards and finding the end zone once (62% snap share). He displayed his versatility as a dual-threat back catching 3 balls for 17 yards (3 targets). 37% route participation was down from last week as the team didn’t really need to throw up big early in a blow-out victory.
Kendre Miller was also heavily involved, receiving 4 targets and making 4 receptions for 53 yards, displaying his reliability in the passing game. Only ran two fewer routes than Kamara and each saw two targets in the first half.
Miller went 12 for 37 rushing, although some of his work came later in the blowout. Still, he saw some time alongside Kamara before the game got out of hand as the team recently released Tony Jones Jr.
Make sure he’s not on waivers as a high-end handcuff to Kamara. The guy has juice, especially in the passing game.
I also think Kamara might be a sharp sell-high after this game. Backfield was not all his with Miller sprinkling in. And Jamaal Williams will eventually be returning, which could spell further touches away from AK41. Kamara has averaged 24.5 touches per game since returning from suspension. That leads all players and is likely not sustainable.
| Rank |
Player |
Games |
Touches |
Touches/game |
| 1 |
A.Kamara |
2 |
49 |
24.5 |
| 2 |
Z.Moss |
4 |
97 |
24.25 |
| 3 |
C.McCaffrey |
5 |
119 |
23.8 |
| 4 |
D.Montgomery |
4 |
93 |
23.25 |
| 5 |
T.Etienne |
5 |
113 |
22.6 |
| 6 |
J.Jacobs |
5 |
105 |
21 |
| 7 |
T.Pollard |
5 |
100 |
20 |
| 8 |
A.Ekeler |
1 |
20 |
20 |
| 9 |
J.Mixon |
5 |
97 |
19.4 |
| 10 |
D.Henry |
5 |
95 |
19 |
| 11 |
R.White |
4 |
76 |
19 |
| 12 |
S.Barkley |
2 |
38 |
19 |
| 13 |
D.Pierce |
5 |
93 |
18.6 |
| 14 |
D.Swift |
5 |
91 |
18.2 |
| 15 |
K.Williams |
5 |
90 |
18 |
| 16 |
K.Walker |
4 |
72 |
18 |
| 17 |
D.Jackson |
1 |
18 |
18 |
| 18 |
B.Robinson |
5 |
88 |
17.6 |
| 19 |
I.Pacheco |
5 |
82 |
16.4 |
| 20 |
R.Stevenson |
5 |
80 |
16 |
| 21 |
N.Chubb |
2 |
32 |
16 |
| 22 |
A.Mattison |
5 |
78 |
15.6 |
| 23 |
J.Conner |
5 |
76 |
15.2 |
| 24 |
M.Sanders |
5 |
76 |
15.2 |
| 25 |
B.Robinson |
5 |
76 |
15.2 |
| 26 |
J.Cook |
5 |
75 |
15 |
| 27 |
J.Ford |
4 |
60 |
15 |
| 28 |
R.Mostert |
5 |
73 |
14.6 |
| 29 |
J.Kelley |
4 |
58 |
14.5 |
| 30 |
J.Williams |
2 |
29 |
14.5 |
| 31 |
N.Harris |
5 |
68 |
13.6 |
| 32 |
T.Allgeier |
5 |
68 |
13.6 |
| 33 |
A.Dillon |
5 |
67 |
13.4 |
| 34 |
J.Gibbs |
4 |
53 |
13.25 |
Michael Thomas was Derek Carr‘s primary target, with 7 targets (28% Target share). He caught 4 passes for 65 yards. Chris Olave had 5 targets, making 2 receptions for 12 yards, and he found the end zone once. Was very close to a second score. Still, I’m not sold on the Derek Carr-Olave pairing. The Saints QB consistently misses Olave downfield. Therefore after the TD score, I am looking to SELL Olave even after buying low last week. The Saints second-year WR has 3 catches for 16 yards over the last two games.
The Texans, Jaguars and Colts are up next for the Saints.
New England Patriots
Buy Rhamondre Stevenson, Add Kendrick Bourne
Rhamondre Stevenson and Ezekiel Elliott shared the rushing duties. Stevenson had 8 rushing attempts, gaining 24 yards, while Elliott carried the ball 8 times for 21 yards. The Patriots struggled to find significant success on the ground. Shocker.
Elliott had a notable role in the passing game, catching all 4 targets for 17 yards. Stevenson had just 2 targets (both on the 1st drive). Snaps were nearly 50/50, although Stevenson ran more routes (15 vs 10).
This was Stevenson’s worst game and lowest volume output with just 10 touches. You’d be selling low if you move him especially ahead of a great matchups against the Raiders, Bills and Dolphins. Buy low.
He looked much better in this game than he has despite how bad the Patriots’ offense has played. Opened the game with an 8-yard rush, followed by rushes of 4, 4, 0, 8, -5, 7, 0 and 5. If he wasn’t getting completely stuffed, he was racking up 4-plus yards on the ground. The major loss came on a botched pitch by Jones.
Considering the current state of the Patriots offense – Bill Belichick said they need to start over – I’d bet he just rides in the best offensive players he has. That guy is Stevenson.
Mac Jones started the game but faced pressure from the Saints’ defense. He completed 12 out of 22 passes for 110 yards but threw two interceptions. Jones had to contend with a Saints defense that was effective in creating turnovers. He didn’t finish the game for the second straight week…
Kendrick Bourne was the Patriots’ primary target with 5 passes thrown his way. He caught 2 of them for 43 yards, including a 28-yard reception that displayed his ability to stretch the field (116 air yards).
Rookie Demario Douglas was targeted twice, catching one pass for 24 yards, showcasing his capability to gain substantial yardage on a single play. However, he left with an injury.
JuJu Smith-Schuster (too early to call the worst FA signing?) also left with an injury.
With all the injuries to the WRs, Bourne is back in a full-time role. Puts him in the desperation streamer category for Week 6. He leads the Patriots with a 17% Target share and 29% air yards share this season. Leads team in all receiving categories.
The Raiders, Bills and Dolphins are up next.
Baltimore Ravens
Add Justice Hill, Buy Zay Flowers
The Ravens’ rushing attack was led by a committee of running backs. Starter Gus Edwards had 12 rushing attempts, gaining 48 yards, and averaged 4.0 yards per carry.
Quarterback Lamar Jackson displayed his dual-threat abilities, rushing for 45 yards on 6 carries, averaging an impressive 7.5 yards per rush.
Justice Hill contributed with 7 carries for 32 yards, including a touchdown run, showcasing the depth of the Ravens’ backfield. Hill made contributions in the passing game, catching all 4 passes targeted to him while running a route on 40% of dropbacks. Looked spry in the receiving game but lost a fumble that led to a Steelers field goal. Edwards was not targeted.
After it appeared that Edwards was “the” guy for the Ravens, they went back to Hill as the snap leader and favorite in the red zone. Add Hill if you’re in a pinch, but don’t expect too much versus a fierce Titans defense in Week 6. At least we have just a two-headed backfield with no other Ravens RB seeing any touches.
Lamar Jackson completed 22 out of 38 passes for 236 yards. While he didn’t throw any touchdowns, he did have one interception.
Rookie Zay Flowers was Lamar Jackson‘s top target, receiving 11 passes (29% Target share). He caught 5 of them for 73 yards, demonstrating his ability to gain significant yardage on receptions. Ravens WR1. 29% Target share this season. And he left production on the table.
Massive game coming versus Tennessee this weekend.
Tight end Mark Andrews was a reliable target for Jackson, receiving 10 passes and making 6 receptions for 65 yards.
Nelson Agholor caught 4 of 5 targets for 64 yards, averaging 16 yards per reception. However, he dropped a long pass that could have easily gone for 6.
Other receivers, including Odell Beckham Jr., Rashod Bateman, and Devin Duvernay, were not involved in the passing attack. Beckham got banged up early on and Bateman was plagued by drops (including a TD) on his 3 targets in his first game back. Bateman is still playing behind Agholor in snaps/routes.
Titans (London), Lions and Cardinals are up next.
Have to expect a major bounce-back game for the Ravens after they totally blew a game that could have easily won versus the Steelers. Blown 4th downs and points in the red zone. Multiple dropped TDs. A blocked punt resulted in a safety.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Sell George Pickens
The Steelers’ rushing game was a shared effort. Jaylen Warren had 9 rushing attempts, gaining 40 yards and averaging 4.4 yards per carry. Najee Harris carried the ball 14 times but faced tough defense, gaining 37 yards at an average of 2.6 yards per carry. Woof. Warren was another key target, receiving 3 passes for 39 yards. Harris had 1 target. Routes were even split.
The backfield has been bad, so don’t feel bad if you need to drop someone over the Steelers bye week. Still, I’d try to hold Warren or even acquire him dirt cheap. He has out-scored Harris through 5 weeks. He has juice. Najee is averaging under 7 points per game in PPR. RB37 in half PPR. Warren has 21 catches for 166 yards this season.
QB Kenny Pickett led the Steelers’ passing game. He completed 18 out of 32 passes for 224 yards, including one touchdown and no interceptions.
George Pickens was the standout receiver for the Steelers, targeted 10 times (32% Target share). He made 6 receptions for an impressive 130 yards, averaging 21.7 yards per catch, and scored a touchdown on a long 41-yard pass.
Allen Robinson made 5 receptions for 29 yards (9 targets) showcasing his reliability as a possession receiver.
This team won because of their defense – a big reason why they have won any games this year. Much needed bye week is coming up where they can get healthier and work on a new offensive strategy. Whispers…fire Matt Canada.
Still, consider me pessimistic. If able, I would sell high on Pickens. He has made a lot of production ripping off big plays and his Target share can only go down with the eventual returns of Diontae Johnson and Pat Freiermuth.
Johnson is eyeing a Week 7 return (after the Steelers bye week).
It’s been 26% through 5 weeks with a top-10 air yards share (42%). I think Pickens is a great talent, but the offense and his role – having to rely some heavily on contested sideline catches – are just not conducive to sustained fantasy production.
New York Giants
Buy Saquon Barkley, Darren Waller, Add Jalin Hyatt, Wan’Dale Robinson, Drop Matt Breida
Daniel Jones left the game in the 4th quarter so monitor his status. It’s a neck injury, but not considered serious.
In Week 5, the Giants adopted a running back-by-committee approach to their ground game
Rookie Eric Gray was the leading rusher for the Giants, carrying the ball 12 times for 25 yards, averaging 2.1 yards per attempt.
Matt Breida contributed significantly with 9 carries for 21 yards, averaging 2.3 yards per carry. He played the most snaps and ran the most routes.
This team needs Saquon Barkley back. The Bills cannot stop the run. He is LITERALLY their only hope.
Gray was more involved in the first half and would presumably be the guy to roster in Week 6 if Barkley misses another game.
Darren Waller led the team in receptions, receiving 8 passes for 86 yards (11 targets, 37% Target share). Ran a route on 100% of dropbacks. Still, a trade-for-target based on his alpha usage in plus-matchups.
Wan’Dale Robinson caught five passes for 18 yards (6 targets, 20% Target share). PPR machine. Continues to be HYPER-TARGETED. Standard zero. He left the game, was ruled out but then came back. Only Giants WR not-named Waller you can play (strictly PPR).
Jalin Hyatt‘s playing time increased again, as this time he totally supplanted Isaiah Hodgins as the No. 3 WR. Keep him stashed as a high-upside rookie. Second on the team in routes run, but was not targeted.
A wounded Bills defense, Commanders and Jets are the next three matchups.
Miami Dolphins
Buy Jaylen Waddle, Sell/Hold Raheem Mostert, Add Jeff Wilson Jr.
De’Von Achane had ANOTHER outstanding game on the ground, carrying the ball 11 times for an impressive 151 yards, averaging an incredible 13.7 yards per carry. He also scored a touchdown, highlighting his explosiveness, but also lost a fumble. Interestingly enough, after he fumbled the offense went right back to him on the next drive which is when he ripped off a 76-yard TD.
Raheem Mostert contributed significantly with 10 carries for 65 yards, averaging a solid 6.5 yards per carry. Mostert also found the end zone with a rushing touchdown. Sell high.
Both guys started. But Achane dominated the carries in the first half. 5 to 2. Mostert finished with two targets to Achane’s one. Achane saw 4 red zone carries to Mostert’s 2.
Wouldn’t be concerned at all with the snap share favoring Mostert (59% vs. 48%). Use that as your selling point. 3 of Mostert’s final touches came on the final drive of the game with 1:21 remaining on the clock.
Note that Achane is dealing with an injury that will knock him out several weeks and Jeff Wilson Jr. is slated to return from IR. He will have 21 days to return to the active roster.
Tua Tagovailoa completed 22 of 30 passes for an impressive 308 yards. He threw 2 touchdown passes but also had 2 interceptions (pick six).
The Dolphins spread their passing targets among various receivers, emphasizing a well-rounded passing attack.
Tyreek Hill was the standout receiver, recording 8 receptions for a whopping 181 yards. Hill made a significant impact, averaging an incredible 22.6 yards per catch, and scored a touchdown on a 69-yard reception.
Cedrick Wilson contributed 4 receptions for 52 yards, showcasing his ability to move the chains.
Jaylen Waddle recorded 5 receptions for 35 yards and scored a touchdown (4 red-zone targets). Team-high ten targets while leading the team in routes run. More involved but not as efficient as you’d hope.
The big game is LOOMING. In this matchup in Week 5, the Dolphins were not pushing downfield as things were open underneath. Chase the volume and routes. An injury to Achane could shift the big spike plays to Waddle…
The Panthers, Eagles and Patriots are the next 3 matchups.
Tennessee Titans
Sell Derrick Henry, DeAndre Hopkins, Avoid Chigoziem Okonkwo
Derrick Henry carried the ball 13 times for 43 yards, averaging 3.3 yards per carry. Although he didn’t find the end zone, his rushing efforts contributed to ball control. He also tried to throw another TD pass, but it was just out of bounds.
Tyjae Spears showcased his versatility with 7 carries for 34 yards, averaging an impressive 4.9 yards per carry. He also scored a rushing touchdown on a cool end-around designed run, displaying his ability to finish drives. Spears contributed with 4 receptions for 35 yards (5 targets), demonstrating his ability to make short and intermediate catches to move the chains. Henry also caught 3 balls on 3 targets.
Spears – per usual – also ran more routes. Both RBs also played more than 50% of the snaps
Henry’s upside continues to be limited with Spears in the fold. Sell the Big Dog.
DeAndre Hopkins was a primary target, receiving 11 passes and catching 8 of them for a total of 140 yards (32% Target share). It was the perfect storm for Hopkins, with Treylon Burks out in a plus-matchup versus a weak secondary. He was also healthier than he had been in the past weeks.
Still, I’d sell high to any receiver attached to the Titans passing game. Still hasn’t scored a TD this season, which limits him in half-PPR formats. Don’t love the schedule coming up either.
Chigoziem Okonkwo also played a significant role with 5 receptions for 33 yards, showcasing his versatility in the short passing game. 9 targets! With no Treylon Burks. Still, 5 for 33 is hardly worth any major victory laps. Big drop in the red zone.
Leave him on waivers. 65% route participation is also not great.
Ravens (London), bye week Falcons and Steelers up next. Tennessee plays better at home so look forward to back-to-back home games. Too bad London’s not actually home.
Indianapolis Colts
Sell Jonathan Taylor, Buy Michael Pittman Jr., Add Josh Downs
The Colts’ rushing attack was dominant, led by running back Zack Moss, who displayed both power and big-play ability against a fierce Titans DL.
Moss started, played 80% of the snaps and carried the ball an impressive 23 times, accumulating 165 yards on the ground with an outstanding average of 7.2 yards per carry. He found the end zone twice, showcasing his ability to break tackles and make explosive runs.
Jonathan Taylor (15% snap share) contributed 6 carries for 18 yards, although he didn’t manage to score a touchdown. (2 to 1 targets in favor of Moss). Taylor was used heavily at a per-snap rate (10 snaps, 7 RB opportunities), but Moss’s production cannot be ignored, nor can his overwhelming routes run rate (68%).
Also thought it was curious that the team elected to NOT use JT near the goal line. Moss has 8 red-zone carries to Taylor’s one.
The ultimate worst-case scenario for fantasy managers who had Moss and started JT this week. Woof. Expect JT’s snaps to rise…but perhaps we won’t see Moss totally disappear based on how well he has played. After all, JT has a long-term contract, so the team might be more keen on keeping him upright for the long haul. I think he’s a sharp sell-high. Not like Shane Steichen is known for strictly using just 1 RB…
The Colts had an efficient and conservative passing game, with both Gardner Minshew and Anthony Richardson taking snaps. Richardson was knocked out of the game with a shoulder injury and is expected to miss up to 4 weeks on IR.
Gardner Minshew completed 11 of 14 passes for a total of 155 yards. He did not throw any touchdown passes and maintained a strong passer rating of 112.8.
The Colts’ receiving corps spread out targets effectively, with several players contributing to the passing attack.
Josh Downs was the standout receiver, receiving 6 passes for 97 yards, averaging an impressive 16.2 yards per catch. 6 targets. 4 targets from Minshew.
Michael Pittman Jr. also played a significant role with 5 receptions for 52 yards, showcasing his ability to make catches at different levels of the field. 7 targets. 5 from Minshew (35% Target share). Caught a DPI on a deep target.
Downs has been more productive in the games that Minshew has played than with Richardson. The same goes for Pittman.
Both guys should be viewed in higher regard with Minshew slated to be QB1 over the next month.
The targets have been extremely concentrated between the two WRs anyway. Pittman has a 29% Target share this season. Downs owned a 25% Target share in Week 5. On the year, it’s 20%.
The Jaguars, Browns and Saints are the next 3 games for Indy. Indy played Jacksonville in Week 1, and Pittman posted a 8-97-1 stat line on 11 targets.
Houston Texans
Buy Dameon Pierce, Nico Collins, Avoid Dalton Schultz
The Texans’ rushing game was led by running back Dameon Pierce, who carried the ball 20 times and demonstrated his ability to grind out yards. Pierce managed to gain 66 yards on the ground, averaging 3.3 yards per carry. Although he didn’t find the end zone.
But more importantly, in a close game, there was no sniff of Devin Singletary. As the Texans’ OL gets healthier…. Watch out. Usage is trending upward for Pierce.
CJ Stroud completed 20 of 35 passes for a total of 249 yards. He threw one touchdown pass and didn’t record any interceptions, showcasing his poise in the pocket.
Tight end Dalton Schultz was the leading receiver, receiving 7 passes for 65 yards, including one touchdown. He averaged 9.3 yards per catch and proved to be a reliable target for Stroud. 10 targets (31% Target share). Still think this was more matchup-based with Atlanta’s strong perimeter CBs.
Too bad Schultz plays the Saints next week…
Tank Dell also made a significant impact, with 3 receptions for 57 yards (4 targets), averaging an impressive 19 yards per catch. But left the game with a concussion. John Metchie saw more snaps as a result. Dell will most likely miss Week 6 as players tend to miss one game after sustaining a concussion.
Robert Woods got the targets in a plus-matchup in the slot. Alas, the dusty veteran could not capitalize. 3 for 30 on 9 targets. Woof.
Nico Collins contributed with 3 receptions for 39 yards. Bad matchup. With the injury to Dell and the other TEs/WRs just not good enough, I expect Collins to bounce back. Still top-10 in receiving yards this season.
But a reminder that the Falcons’ defense is best exposed through slot WRs and tight ends.
Atlanta Falcons
Buy Bijan Robinson, Sell Kyle Pitts/Drake London, Add Jonnu Smith
Bijan Robinson carried the ball 14 times, gaining 46 yards with an average of 3.3 yards per carry. Although he didn’t find the end zone (scored on 1 of his two targets in the red zone) his consistent running provided valuable yardage.
Tyler Allgeier contributed significantly to the rushing game, with 17 attempts for 40 yards, averaging 2.4 yards per carry. Desmond Ridder also made a contribution on the ground, rushing for 10 yards and scoring a goal-line touchdown.
B-Rob’s 318 rushing yards are the third-most in the NFL, but he has zero rushing TDs. That will not sustain. Buy low.
Ridder (undefeated at home in both college/pros) completed 28 of 37 passes for a total of 329 yards! He threw one touchdown pass and didn’t record any interceptions.
The Falcons’ receiving corps was actively involved in the game, with several players being targeted.
Kyle Pitts was the leading receiver, being targeted 11 times and catching 7 passes for 87 yards. He averaged 12.4 yards per reception. Have a day! SELL HIGH.
Drake London demonstrated his receiving skills with 6 receptions for 78 yards, averaging 13 yards per catch (9 targets). Again…sell high. Zero catches in the first half.
Ridder may never throw for 300-plus yards ever in his career.
No. 2 tight end Jonnu Smith made 6 receptions for 67 yards, showcasing his consistency as a target. 4 straight weeks of consistent usage.
On the year, Smith and Pitts have identical 20% target shares. London is at 19%, followed by Robinson (18%).
Also, as a side note, KhaDarel Hodge played ahead of Mack Hollins.
Commanders at home looks like a nice spot for this Falcons offense in Week 6. So, if you are “stuck” with Falcons WRs/TEs play them. But I’d be shipping them off even with a solid matchup.
Carolina Panthers
Sell Miles Sanders, Add Jonathan Mingo, Chuba Hubbard
Chuba Hubbard carried the ball 9 times and gained 35 yards, averaging 3.9 yards per carry. Earned two red-zone opportunities.
Miles Sanders contributed 32 yards on 7 carries, with an average of 4.6 yards per carry. Sanders led in carries in the first half (6 to 3) and started.
Laviska Shenault had 5 carries. Not nothing.
1 target for Sanders, two for Hubbard. Sanders ran more routes.
The second straight game where Hubbard out-snapped Sanders. This looks like a full-blown committee as Sanders has no injury excuses this week compared to last.
Quarterback Bryce Young commanded the Panthers’ passing game:
Young completed 25 of 41 passes for a total of 247 yards. He threw three touchdown passes but also recorded two interceptions.
Adam Thielen was the standout target, being targeted 13 times (37% Target share) and catching 11 passes for 107 yards. He averaged 9.7 yards per reception and scored a late touchdown.
Jonathan Mingo made 5 receptions for 48 yards, showcasing his reliability as a target (7 targets, 20% Target share). He put Terrace Marshall Jr. back on the bench.
D.J. Chark contributed 42 yards on 3 receptions, averaging 14 yards per catch, and scored a touchdown (6 targets). 3 red-zone targets.
The Dolphins, Texans and Colts over the next three games.
The fact that Young was able to support fantasy weapons and be fantasy-viable himself puts him and his pass-catchers on the waiver wire list.
Both Chark and Mingo have 30% or higher air yard shares this season, with Mingo boasting the higher Target share 18% vs. 12%). Mingo is also coming off his best game to date. The first play was a pass to the rookie.
Think I prefer chasing the rookie than the boom-or-bust Chark off waivers. 7-plus targets in Young’s last two games. Chark has totaled fewer than 3.5 targets per game in 3 games with Young.
Detroit Lions
Add Josh Reynolds, Hold Jameson Williams
Dominate performance is to be expected by one of the league’s best teams.
And no Amon-Ra St. Brown or Jahmyr Gibbs. No problem.
David Montgomery led the ground game with 19 carries, accumulating an impressive 109 yards. He averaged 5.7 yards per carry and scored a touchdown. 6 targets while finishing second on the team in routes run.
No. 2 RB Craig Reynolds contributed “significantly” with 7 carries for 52 yards, averaging an impressive 7.4 yards per carry, and also recorded a touchdown. Didn’t touch the ball till the 4th quarter…
Quarterback Jared Goff orchestrated the Lions’ passing game with remarkable efficiency:
Goff completed 20 of 28 passes for a total of 236 yards. He threw three touchdown passes and did not record any interceptions. Goff at home? Jared God.
Josh Reynolds emerged as the top target, being targeted 5 times and catching 4 passes for 76 yards. He averaged 19 yards per reception and scored a touchdown. And that was just on 13 routes run.
Clearly, he is the go-to guy for Goff whether or not St. Brown is active.
Sam LaPorta made 3 receptions for 47 yards and was a valuable target in the red zone, scoring two touchdowns. “The” late-round tight end that could legitimately finish No. 1 overall…
Kalif Raymond contributed 45 receiving yards on 3 receptions, showcasing his big-play ability (3 targets).
Jameson Williams finished third in routes run among WRs and in snaps played. He did not start. Caught two passes for 2 yards on 3 targets. Expect his snaps to increase so keep him stashed.
Cannot risk missing out on him if the St. Brown injury is long-term.
Detroit plays Tampa Bay then Baltimore over the next two games.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Buy Evan Engram, Sell/Hold Christian Kirk
Travis Etienne was the workhorse (AGAIN) in the backfield, tallying 26 carries for an impressive 136 yards. He averaged 5.2 yards per carry and reached the end zone twice with two rushing touchdowns. Etienne showcased his versatility with 4 receptions for 48 yards. 5 targets.
Tank Bigsby. The preseason hype king? 3 carries for 8 yards. 15% snap share. Woof.
Calvin Ridley was a standout receiver, targeted 8 times and securing 7 receptions for a remarkable 122 yards (124 air yards). He averaged 17.4 yards per catch. Christian Kirk contributed significantly with 6 receptions for 78 yards (8 targets, 22% Target share).
Evan Engram (8 targets) and Zay Jones, with Jones catching a touchdown pass. Jones left the game with a knee injury – as he missed time earlier this year with a knee injury. Jones plays such a critical role in the red zone for the Jaguars.
I’ve done my best to approach the Jags WR room with buy/low tips, and buying on Ridley last week paid off. The Colts up next is a GREAT spot for him.
Selling Kirk…did not. But again, I did not anticipate Jones getting re-injured.
Either way, I think the move with this roster is to just buy any asset after a bad game and sell high after a strong game. In this case, it’s Evan Engram as the buy target. Still saw 8 targets but just 4 for 28.
Jaguars take on Colts, Saints, and Steelers over the next three games.
Buffalo Bills
Buy James Cook, Sell Gabe Davis
Did anybody tell the Bills they were scheduled to play at 9:30 ET? Did absolutely nothing in the first half and just too big a hole that’s they couldn’t rally out of in time during the second half. Still for fantasy…monster games.
Josh Allen threw for 350-plus yards. Stefon Diggs went for 121 on 8 catches on 11 targets. Gabe Davis 6 for 100 on 8 targets and another TD. You wanna sell high off a 4-week TD streak? Be my guest.
Dalton Kincaid missed some time with an injury while Dawson Knox saw 6 targets.
James Cook. WOOF. 5 for -4 yards. 3 for 25 on 4 targets. The run game was completely abandoned.
Still…The Giants and Patriots up next.
So, I’d be buying the bounce back on the talented second-year RB.
Still played 62% of the snaps, tied for a season-high. 63% route participation.
Cincinnati Bengals
Buy Joe Mixon, Tee Higgins, Add Trenton Irwin,
How’s the calf Joe Burrow? Feels good? Cool? Cool.
Burrow tossed 317 passing yards and 3 TDs to Ja’Marr Chase who went OFF. Most points scored by a player this season.
192 yards and 3 TDs. 15 catches on 19 targets (43% Target share). Finally feels good to have drafted him No. 1 overall.
Without Tee Higgins, Trenton Irwin commanded 10 targets, catching 8 for 60 yards. Tyler Boyd was fine with 6 for 39 on 7 targets. Both were near every-down players. Irwin narrowly missed another long TD as well. Add off waivers if you need a warm body, should Tee Higgins (also a buy low not being top of mind) not be ready.
As for the backfield, same old for Joe Mixon. 25 carries for 81 yards and four catches (4 targets). 77% snap share. And although he was effective, he did not score. Buy the dip on the lack of TDs. He had 2 red-zone targets, and 8 red-zone carries. He just kept getting stuffed play after play. Mixon had 8 red-zone carries entering Week 5…
Seattle up next, then the bye week.
Watch out for this offense if this was the launch pad they needed to HEAT up.
Arizona Cardinals
Add Emari Demercado, Buy Michael Wilson
James Conner left with an injury – and is expected to miss several weeks – and No. 2 RB Keontay Ingram was already out. That thrust pass-catching specialist Emeri Demercado into the RB1 role. 10 carries for 45 yards to go along with 3 targets on a whopping 77% snap share.
Add him off waivers this week, but be wary that his role might not be as high in Week 5 should Ingram – the offseason RB2 – return to the lineup. However, I’d rather be on the optimistic side as the team had Corey Clement active…and he played zero offensive snaps.
Marquise Brown finished with another strong outing, 4-61 on 10 targets (33%) and 1 TD. Owned nearly half of Josh Dobb’s air yards (49%). 28% Target share through 5 games.
Can’t say the same for hot Week 5 waiver wire pick up, rookie Michael Wilson. 1 for 18 on 2 targets. Was not targeted until the fourth quarter. The routes and snaps were still there, so just chalk it up to WR variance.
Zach Ertz turned back into a pumpkin – 2 for 10 on 4 targets – but got the TD.
The Rams, Seahawks and Ravens up next. Probably buy low on Wilson with some really good matchups coming up.
Philadelphia Eagles
Buy DeVonta Smith
D’Andre Swift ended Week 6 with 17 carries for 70 yards compared to Kenneth Gainwell‘s 7 for 17.
But Swift saw awesome receiving usage for the second straight game – 6-for-6 and 38 receiving yards.
This time it was accompanied by a dominant route participation at 58%.
Kenneth Gainwell still has TD appeal in deeper formats – 5 red-zone carries. But again, the majority of his work came in the 4th quarter (5 carries).
The presence of Gainwell and Jalen Hurts near the goal line is really the only thing holding back a healthy Swift from being a top-5 fantasy RB.
Dallas Goedert got the squeaky wheel treatment – 8-117-1 – on a team-high 9 targets.
AJB WR1 szn continues on with 6-127 on 8 targets.
DeVonta Smith ended with just 1 catch for 6 yards. 5 targets. Woof. Must imagine HIS squeaky wheel game is coming….
The Jets, Dolphins, and Commanders are incoming. Bombs away.
Buy low on Smith. Lead the team in routes run.
He was visibly upset on the sideline with not much involvement. Seems like the biggest problem for the 5-0 Eagles is just trying to balance the offensive production to keep their players happy. Great problem to have – said a very sad Patriots fan.
Los Angeles Rams
Hold/Sell Kyren Williams, Add Ronnie Rivers
Cooper Kupp returns…
What would happen to Puka Nacua‘s targets? Nacua saw 11 targets for 7-71 and 1 TD. 100% snap share. 32% Target share. Exactly the same as Weeks 1-4. Baller.
Kupp earned 12 targets for 8-118, but no scores. Kupp was insanely involved early on. Half of his targets came on the first drive.
The Rams duo combined for a 67% Target share. 79% air yards share. I expect the targets to be concentrated like this moving forward. Nobody else had more than 5 targets (Tutu Atwell).
Atwell still scored and ran a full route tree, but the writing is on the wall that his production is going to dip. If anything, Atwell is a WR handcuff you can play if Kupp or Nacua gets hurt.
Kyren Williams maintained RB1 status out-touching Ronnie Rivers 15 to 1. Williams just didn’t score. Still very strong 84% snap share. Would expect him to be in a solid bounce-back spot next week. Probably a decent buy-low candidate. Just don’t overpay as he was someone I have voiced “selling” in past articles.
No. 1… not sure how good he actually is. Second worst in the NFL in rushing yards below expectation.
And I am somewhat concerned about the return of Kupp drastically altering his TD and receiving upside. Williams tied a season-low in targets with Kupp back. After scoring 6 TDs in the first four weeks, he did not find the end zone in Week 5.
Just make sure you keep Rivers stashed because I feel confident he could seamlessly replace Williams’ production with the same role.
The Cardinals and Steelers are the Rams’ next 2 opponents. Think I might use that as leverage to move off Kyren to somebody who thinks he is the exact same guy to start the year. I’m less bullish, that’s the case.
New York Jets
Buy Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson, Avoid Tyler Conklin
My bold prediction in Week 5 was that Breece Hall would go for 150-plus yards and 2 TDs. I failed. He went for 177 yards on 22 carries and ONLY scored once, on a 72-yard touchdown.
YTLSI.
22 carries for Hall and 6 for Dalvin Cook. No targets for Cook, while Hall gobbled up 52% of the snaps. Just 17% of the snaps for Cook. Hall also chipped in 3 targets on just 10 routes. Michael Carter was actually the more involved receiver in routes, but that just means Hall’s role can continue to rise. Buy high. Because the buy window is closed. But it might open back up again in a tough matchup in Week 6.
Garrett Wilson had his worst game, 3-54-0 on a team-high 7 targets. Happens. Better than a zero. He’s tough to justify as a buy low given his QB situation, even though he’s been productive despite the QB woes.
Still posted a 27% Target share and an insane 59% air yard share (107 air yards). His season-long 59% air-yard share ranks 3rd in the NFL. 5th in weighted opportunities.
Eagles will be tough next week, but the schedule gets back to soft between the Giants, Chargers and Raiders after Philly. I think he’s an interesting buy-low.
Tyler Conklin was sitting on 3 for 30 until he went full GRONKLIN on a 37-yard catch toward the end of the game. Just be wary when the matchup next week versus Philly has you head over heels to stream him.
Only played 55% of the snaps and he ran a route on 66% of dropbacks.
Denver Broncos
Buy Jerry Jeudy, Hold Jaleel McLaughlin/Samaje Perine, Avoid Adam Trautman
No Javonte Williams left the backfield to Jaleel McLaughlin and Samaje Perine. McLaughlin scored on a receiving TD (4 targets) while adding nine carries for 68 yards. 4 catches on just 10 routes run. Whoever the early-down RB on the Broncos is – either McLaughlin or Javonte Williams – continues to get work.
Perine added 6 for 22 on the ground but was also effective as a receiver. Team-high 73 yards on 5 targets.
Led backfield in routes run.
Each RB saw 2 red zone carries. McLaughlin’s both came inside the 6-yard line. Would view him as RB1 on a short week versus KC, but Perine has appeal should Denver be dialing up pass attempts.
Don’t drop either of them until we get the green light for Williams. Short week as they play on Thursday at Arrowhead Stadium.
Jerry Jeudy led the team in targets (7, 26%), catching 6 for 50. The only incompletion came on the final drive in total desperation mode. Was efficient and led the team in routes run and air yards. He now leads the team in Target share (21%) this season.
Either he continues on the strong trajectory, or he gets traded as the Broncos’ 2023 season goes off the rails. Either way, he’s a nice buy-low target. The Broncos’ defense is still horrible which means Jeudy will continue to see heavy involvement.
Courtland Sutton got sauced to one catch for 13 yards.
Marvin Mims continues to play behind Brandon Johnson. Woof. But he also fumbled twice. Not ideal.
Adam Trautman was more involved this week than ever before, which can happen when you consistently play 90% of the snaps. Saw his most targets (5) since Week 1. Still, I’d tread lightly especially with Greg Dulcich returning soon from IR.
Kansas City Chiefs
Buy Rashee Rice, Isiah Pacheco
Isiah Pacheco remains on the league’s under-the-radar bellcows. 16 carries for 55 yards and 1 TD with one catch on 9 yards. 59% snap share. Tied Jerick McKinnon in routes run (12).
Other KC RBs combined for 6 touches.
He faces DEN twice and the Chargers in the next three games. Buy.
Travis Kelce avoided a major injury scare and returned to the game to help seal victory for KC. 10 for 67 and 1 TD on a team-high 11 targets.
2nd in targets was Kadarius Toney for 5 catches and 26 yards (6 targets, 15% Target share).
Skyy Moore. Can. Be. Dropped.
Rashee Rice is the only KC WR I want. 5 targets (13% Target share) for 4 catches and 33 yards and 1 TD. He ran 10 routes. Every time he is on the field they are looking to feed him the ball. 36% target rate per route run.
And unlike Toney – Rice is converting his limited snaps into production.
They like featuring him near the red zone which is the best part of being in a Patrick Mahomes-led offense. Embrace the carb life with Rice.
Justyn Ross was also heavily involved with four targets on just 6 routes run.
The Chiefs are one of those weird teams where I think you can disregard the routes/snaps. Because the players that play the most – Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Skyy Moore, Justin Watson – don’t get targeted as much as Toney, Rice, Ross, etc.
The Broncos face Denver on Thursday night, followed by Chargers and Broncos again.
Minnesota Vikings
Sell Alexander Mattison, Add K.J. Osborn
Alexander Mattison…8 carries for 26 yards. Cam Akers 5 for 15 yards. 3 targets for Mattison and 2 targets for Akers. Hmmm.
Mattison got bailed out by another receiving TD. Sell high. He dropped another pass that could have drastically changed the outcome of the game.
He saw his snaps dip (again) to just 51%. Season-low. Akers saw 7 touches for the second straight week. Mattison finished with just 10. C.J. Ham was playing more on passing downs, seeing a season-high 25% snap share.
Mattison losing snaps to a fullback is all the justification you need to get out.
Justin Jefferson got banged up in this game and will miss at least 4 weeks aftering being placed on IR with a hamstring injury.
Rookie Jordan Addison stepped up, earning a team-high 9 targets for 64 yards, 6 catches and another TD score. Route participation increased to 82%.
K.J. Osborn also saw 9 targets for 5 catches and 49 yards. 89% snap share. Add him off waivers.
Expect the Vikings offense to surge next week against the Bears even without Jefferson in the fold.
As for Jefferson’s own fantasy value. If you are 0-5, 1-4 or 2-3 you are trying to trade him away to a team that is 3-2, 4-1 or 5-0. He cannot help your team now, and there’s no guarantee he will be back in four weeks with Minnesota sitting at 1-4.
Dallas Cowboys
Buy Tony Pollard, Jake Ferguson, Sell CeeDee Lamb
Not much can be taken away from another one-sided Dallas Cowboys game. Either they win big or lose big.
Michael Gallup looks to have firmly supplanted Brandin Cooks as the No. 2. Tied for the team lead in targets (5, 19%) with CeeDee Lamb and Tony Pollard.
Although Cooks just ran HORRIBLE converting 122 air yards (40%), into just 7 yards and one catch. Woof.
Lamb was marked as a sell-high last week, and I think I am doubling down. The dude just isn’t a true fantasy WR1 alpha. Just a 21% Target share for the year. Outside the top 40. And only one game with more than four catches.
Jake Ferguson caught all 3 of his targets and ran a route on 81% of Dak Prescott‘s dropbacks. He’s still a fantasy TE1.
The Chargers, a bye week, Rams, Eagles, Giants, Panthers, and Commanders are the next six matchups for Dallas. Given the performance on Sunday Night Football, I think this is the prime time to buy low on Dallas players.
Specifically, Tony Pollard. Third in the NFL in touches. First in red-zone touches. 69% snap share was his second-highest rate of the year in a game where it was antoher blow out. Rico Dowdle had 3 of his 5 carries with Cooper Rush at QB.
Buy low.
San Francisco 49ers
Buy Brandon Aiyuk, Sell George Kittle
Every week, it’s somebody else. George Kittle‘s week came on Sunday night to the tune of 3 catches for 67 yards on 4 targets (3 TDs). But don’t get it lost that Brandon Aiyuk was the No. 1 WR with a dominant 28% Target share (7 targets) and 49% air yards share (104 air yards).
He caught four balls for 58 yards. Tied Kittle for the team lead in routes run.
So, what do you do when a 49er goes off? You. Sell. High.
Aiyuk remains my favorite 49ers to be invested in for the rest of the season. Over his four healthy games he owns a 27% Target share and league-high 51% air yards share. Whenever San Fran is going downfield, it’s going to Aiyuk.
Deebo Samuel drew 5 carries and caught all three of his targets for 55 yards. I would probably look to buy/hold Samuel, as just wait for the next “BOOM” game to flip him.
Jordan Mason is the No. 2 to Christian McCaffrey if Elijah Mitchell is out.
Just don’t get it twisted that he has stand-alone appeal. He ran a lot in the fourth quarter including the 26-yard TD.
Green Bay Packers
Buy Romeo Doubs, Add Luke Musgrave, Drop Jayden Reed
Aaron Jones missed another game which put A.J. Dillon back into the starting role. He was more effective rushing the ball 20 times for 76 yards and 1 rushing TD versus an exploitable run defense. He played 64% of the snaps. Patrick Taylor inherited the receiving role with 5 targets (2 for 5) while leading the backfield in routes run. I’d expect similar usage between Dillon and Aaron Jones, upon the veteran’s eventual return from his hamstring injury.
As for the receivers it was more of a flat target distribution as we have come to know with Jordan Love under center. Christian Watson and Luke Musgrave tied for the team lead with 7 targets a piece (24% Target share). Musgrave caught 6 for 34 yards, while Watson flashed his big-play upside with a 77-yard grab on one of his 3 catches (177 air yards, 73% air-yard share). Love was constantly missing Watson on downfield attempts.
Watson played a full-time role, but still saw fewer routes run than Romeo Doubs. However, it did not matter as Doubs caught just one of his four targets. Woof.
Doubs was targeted in the end zone, but it came up just short of a score from the 4-yard line.
Green Bay’s offense has sputtered out in recent weeks, but the schedule calls for guys to increase their production in a hurry. Denver is the gift that keeps giving as is the Vikings and Rams’ defenses. And because GB is going on a bye week, they can be acquired for dirt cheap prices – or even scooped potentially off the waiver wire.
Although Jayden Reed‘s lack of involvement with the return of Watson – 50% snap share, 2 targets – suggests he can probably be dropped over the bye week.
Las Vegas Raiders
Buy Davante Adams
The Davante Adams revenge game did not go as scheduled for fantasy managers. Adams was targeted just four times, catching all four passes for 45 scoreless yards.
Meanwhile, it was the Jakobi Meyers show, as the ex-Patriot caught 7 of 10 targets for 75 yards and 1 TD.
In three games with Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback, Meyers has averaged 10.5 targets, 7.6 receptions, 80.3 receiving yards, and 1 TD per game.
The only other difference this week was the LV tight ends were slightly more involved from the get-go. The MNF broadcast was vocal that the team wanted to get their TEs more involved, but it resulted in just four catches for 50 yards on 5 targets between rookie Michael Mayer and veteran Austin Hooper.
It’s more annoying for Adams/Meyers that targets are being taken away from them, as the usage 50/50 split between Mayer/Hooper makes neither playable.
LV faces a reeling Patriots defense in Week 6, followed by the Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions and New York Giants. Find a way to get Davante Adams on your team after his worst week of the season. Still leads the NFL in Target share (33%) while ranking fourth in weighed opportunity and 7th in air yards share (43%).
Bye Week Teams:
Los Angeles Chargers
Drop Gerald Everett, Hold Quentin Johnston, Sell Keenan Allen
Justin Herbert threw for 167 yards and a touchdown in Week 4, including an explosive 51-yard pass to Josh Palmer to seal the deal in the fourth quarter. That was despite Herbert dealing with a hand injury. Baller.
In the rushing department, Herbert showcased his tactical dual-threat ability with 2 rushing touchdowns on 12 carries for 27 yards.
Keenan Allen was Herbert’s top target in Week 4, hauling in 3 receptions for 32 yards and a touchdown. Although Palmer led the team with 8 targets, finishing with 3 for 77 yards. Again, the final stat line is majorly boosted by the last-minute catch, so Palmer busted for essentially 59 minutes. Keep that in mind…
Palmer led the WRs in snaps (86%) and tied with Allen in routes run (97%). If someone is sour on Allen after a low game, he would be a target off a bye week, especially given the injury surrounding Herbert’s finger injury on his non-throwing hand. However, if you want to sell the 31-year-old based on some recent injury history, I think it might be worth it to see what you can get in return.
Rookie Quentin Johnston played more (71% route participation) as was expected with Mike Williams out. Add him if he was dropped during the bye week.
The overall lack of passing was not expected, as Joshua Kelley rushed 17 times for 65 yards. Isaiah Spiller rushed 5 for 12 yards. The Chargers are returning from bye, so we can just Austin Ekeler back in the fold.
DAL, KC and CHI Weeks 6-8.
Cleveland Browns
Buy Amari Cooper, Sell Jerome Ford, Drop David Njoku
On the Browns’ side, the offense was led by quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson with Deshaun Watson out in Week 4. DTR completed just 19 out of 36 passes for 121 yards, zero TDs.
David Njoku was his primary target, securing 6 receptions for 46 yards (7 targets, 21% Target share). Considering it was a new QB – not any usage change – that influenced Njoku’s best game to date, it best not to read too much into it. Leave him on waivers or drop him.
No Watson killed the fantasy value of Amari Cooper (1 catch, 6 targets) and Elijah Moore (2 for 20, 4 targets). Buy Cooper after the down game with Watson coming back healthy.
On the year, Cooper ranks 7th in air yards share.
Pierre Strong was the standout performer with 5 carries for 49 yards, averaging an impressive 9.8 yards per carry. Although it came all in garbage time for a second straight game. Jerome Ford started but was underwhelming with 9 for 26, but he caught 5 passes on 6 targets. Kareem Hunt also tallied 5 carries but was not targeted.
The 49ers are up next in Week 6. Not great for Ford. Sell high. Ranks second to last in the NFL in rushing success rate (34%) and total rushing EPA this season. So, although I’ll acknowledge his snaps and receiving usage is encouraging the schedule and Hunt’s potential to take a larger chunk concerns me long term. Note that in the first half of Week 4, it was just 6 to 4 carries between Ford and Hunt.
Seattle Seahawks
Hold Kenneth Walker, Add Zach Charbonnet, Sell Tyler Lockett, Buy Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Seattle’s offense wasn’t asked to do too much given the lack of offense generated by the Giants back in Week 4. Geno Smith left briefly with a leg injury but returned in the second half. Kenneth Walker maintained his high-end usage, playing 71% of the snaps to go along with 79 rushing yards and 1 TD. KW3 was bottled up in the first half – 9 for 19 – but ripped off two 15-plus yard rushes in the second half.
The one bad thing about his usage – zero targets despite running a route on 50% of the dropbacks. Meanwhile, Zach Charbonnet was targeted on three of his 5 routes run. The rookie played 24% of the snaps. He’s starting to eat more into Walker’s receiving role, but it’s not impacting the starter’s production. Walker is still getting all the TD equity. He remains a hold with Cincy and Arizona coming up.
Suggested selling Tyler Lockett last week and that looks like a sharp move.
One would figure we get an expanded role for Jaxon Smith-Njigba post the bye week. Because through four weeks, Lockett has done pretty much nothing outside of two TDs in Week 2. JSN’s routes increased in Week 4 (75% route participation) versus Weeks 1-3 (63%). He also tied Lockett for the team-lead Iin targets (6).
Look for JSN to hit waivers after a slow start to his rookie year with Seattle coming off a bye. Take advantage and stash him. Could easily be a league-winner down the stretch.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Buy Chris Godwin, Sell Mike Evans, Hold Rachaad White, Add Cade Otton
The Buccaneers’ offensive attack primarily revolved around quarterback Baker Mayfield, who was efficient with 25 completions out of 32 attempts for 246 yards and three touchdowns in Week 4. Mayfield spread the ball effectively among his targets, with Chris Godwin being his favorite, securing 8 receptions for 114 yards. Deven Thompkins and Mike Evans also contributed significantly with 4 catches for 45 yards and 3 catches for 40 yards, respectively. Evans left early with a hamstring injury. Thompkins did not play the most snaps after the Evans injury. Trey Palmer (75% snap share) ran a route on nearly 80% of the dropbacks. Thompkins was around 61%.
Godwin blew up with Evans out, and Mayfield has shown he can support at least one fantasy WR every single week. Buy Godwin now, with the TD regression calling his name. Only receiver this year with 7-plus red-zone targets and zero TDs.
Cade Otton (100% snap share) added another touchdown reception to his name in Week 4. 3 for 13 on 4 targets. The Lions are a solid matchup in Week 6.
On the ground, the Buccaneers deployed a committee of running backs more than we have seen in previous weeks. Rachaad White led the rushing attack with 15 carries for 56 yards (70% snap share), while Ke’Shawn Vaughn saw some action going 9 for 16 (1 target). 5 carries in the 4th quarter. White still was the preferred pass-catcher with 3 catches for 22 yards (3 targets), while running a route on 79% of dropbacks.
White remains a hold due to his consistent workload and the fact that nobody else behind him on the depth chart is any good. He also just got really unlucky in terms of TDs in Week 4, going 0-for-6 on his red-zone attempts. A total of seven red-zone touches altogether.
The Lions’ newly found tough run defense (not great for White) in Week 6 and Falcons up next in Week 7.
Note that the bye week gives Evans a better chance of returning, but don’t be overly optimistic. Older player + hamstring injury usually doesn’t end well.
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