Advanced stats can help fantasy managers determine potential breakout candidates in fantasy football. Two wide receivers can have similar stat lines in a given week. But they may have gotten there in different ways, and one may have more value going forward than another.

In recent years, targets and target share have become an important part of how we value pass catchers. However, those metrics only tell part of the story. This is because not all targets have the same fantasy value.

Air yards is an important metric because it can often be an indicator of a player’s potential value. Downfield targets offer more big play — and thus big fantasy point — potential. Those players who are being targeted often and also down the field could be in store for more fantasy production down the road.

Let us take a look at some of the top air yards performances from last week to see if we can uncover any hidden gems as we head into Week 5.

• More Waiver Wire Picks
• Weekly Fantasy Football Expert Rankings
• Fantasy Football Start/Sit Advice
• Fantasy Football Trade Tools

Fantasy Football Air Yards Analysis & Takeaways: Week 5 (2023)

Stats via FTNFantasy.com

The Top 10 Quarterbacks

There are a few names on the air yards leader list from last week that we are not used to seeing. One of them is Anthony Richardson of the Indianapolis Colts. He made this list in large part due to the Colts falling behind 23-0. But he still only threw the ball 25 times. It will be interesting to see how Indianapolis attacks their Week 5 matchup against the Tennessee Titans.

The Titans are a notorious pass funnel, leading the NLF by allowing just 2.9 yards per carry. Indianapolis is 10th in the league in rushing attempts and may have Jonathan Taylor back in the fold. Given his rushing upside and the potential for more volume through the air based on the matchup, I consider Anthony Richardson to be a Week 5 fantasy starting quarterback in all formats.

Justin Fields of the Chicago Bears also made his 2023 debut on the air yards leaderboard. Fields barely missed the list the week prior, but that performance was due to a negative game script. In Week 4, however, the Bears made a concerted effort to attack a weak Denver defense. The result was Fields’ best fantasy day of the 2023 season. Fields finished as the overall QB3, setting new career highs with 335 passing yards and four touchdowns.

Despite the outstanding results, it is difficult to project that type of volume for Fields moving forward. Fields and the Bears will face the Washington Commanders on Thursday in Week 5. He should be considered a low-end QB1 in 12-team leagues. Washington has allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks so far this season, as well as the third-most rushing yards.

Another quarterback making a rare appearance on this list is Zach Wilson of the New York Jets. Wilson had perhaps his best game as a pro, but still only finished as the QB14 for fantasy purposes. I think that performance is probably where his ceiling lies from a fantasy perspective. Having said that, he faces the same Denver Broncos defense that Fields just torched. The Broncos have allowed the most fantasy points to opposing signal-callers this year, including consecutive top-three weekly finishes.

There are also four NFL teams on a bye this week. Included in that group are quarterbacks like Justin Herbert and Deshaun Watson. That may cause some fantasy managers to go dumpster diving before Week 5. I do not think I can bring myself to deem Wilson a Week 5 starter, but I think the potential is there for a top-15 fantasy week.

The Top 10 Wide Receivers

Last week showed just how much quarterback accuracy can help (or harm) a wide receiver in terms of production. Brandon Aiyuk generated a total of 129 air yards on his six targets. Amari Cooper generated 127 air yards on his six targets. Brock Purdy completed all six of his passes to Aiyuk en route to a 20-for-21 day. Aiyuk had 148 receiving yards and finished as the WR8, even without the benefit of a touchdown. Cooper, meanwhile, caught 1-of-6 targets from rookie fill-in quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson.

Cooper finished with 16 scoreless yards, ending the week as the WR93. So while it is nice to see Romeo Doubs make the list this week, I am not quite convinced he is an auto-start in Week 5. Only Thompson-Robinson has a lower completion percentage this season than Jordan Love.

The Los Angeles Chargers have a Week 5 bye, but make sure Josh Palmer is not still sitting on your waiver wire. He filled in nicely last season when both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams missed time for Los Angeles. Palmer had six top-36 weekly finishes last year and finished inside the top 48 on four other occasions. With Williams lost for the season, Palmer picked up right where he left off last week. He finished as the overall WR35 for the week, amassing the second-most air yards in the NFL.

Yes, a long deep ball vaulted him into that position, but he still saw seven other targets throughout the game. Palmer will not help you this week, but he should be a bargain until rookie Quentin Johnston proves he is capable of being a full-time player.

The Top 10 Tight Ends

Jake Ferguson made the air yards top ten this week by virtue of his seven targets. He caught all seven, converting them into 77 yards. That type of volume and production is not easy to come by at the tight end position. Despite not finding the end zone, Ferguson finished last week as the TE6 in half-PPR formats. He enters Week 5 eighth among tight ends in fantasy points and tied for sixth in receptions. Ferguson has earned exactly seven targets in three of four games this season.

Even though he does not stretch the field very often, that volume provides a solid fantasy floor. I am very interested to see how Ferguson navigates a difficult Week 5 matchup against the San Francisco 49ers. His expected target share should put him in the low-end TE1 conversation.

Part of me thinks that I should just copy and paste the blurb I wrote about Kyle Pitts last week. But I do think Atlanta’s last game lent some clarity to the situation, and it could be worrisome for managers relying on a huge season from Pitts.

Fantasy managers lost their minds when they saw Pitts post another subpar fantasy line while alleged backup Jonnu Smith had six grabs for 95 yards last week. The pair posted identical numbers in the air yards department. That is notable because they are playing very different roles in Atlanta’s passing game. Pitts has an aDOT of 11.9, while Smith’s sits at just 7.05. The problem is that the Falcons are only throwing the ball 30 times a game, and Desmond Ridder‘s accuracy leaves a lot to be desired.

I think it is worth mentioning that Smith was a consensus fantasy darling not that long ago. He also has familiarity with Arthur Smith from their days together in Tennessee. I am not saying I would rather have him than Pitts going forward. But I do think the gap between the two is significantly smaller than we all accounted for.

The Top Five Underperformers

For this section of the air yards report, I will continue to focus on the wide receiver position. We know that generally, running back and tight end targets occur within close proximity of the line of scrimmage. I will also continue to filter this section to include only those wideouts who earned at least five targets. These are generally the type of players who you may be considering starting in your weekly matchups. Even those with a low aDOT could be worth starting in PPR formats if they get enough volume.

This is the second straight week that both Wan’Dale Robinson and Parris Campbell have made the list. In some cases, low aDOTs could mean a lot of underneath targets and, thus, a solid number of receptions. That is not happening with Robinson and Campbell. They are cannibalizing each other’s target share and production in a subpar passing offense.

Campbell has yet to finish a single week inside the top 65 fantasy wideouts. And Robinson’s two weekly finishes thus far are WR80 and WR46. Many of the short throws directed towards Robinson and Campbell in recent weeks will likely be going back in Saquon Barkley‘s direction once he returns from his ankle sprain. This is just an ugly situation all around and one for fantasy managers to avoid.

Terrace Marshall could be an interesting player to pay attention to moving forward. The third-year wide receiver has earned 24 targets in three games, including 18 over his past two outings. Marshall finished as a top-36 weekly finish despite an extremely low aDOT of 1.9 yards. He did so by securing 9-of-10 balls for 56 yards.

The Panthers are averaging over 40 pass attempts per game and should be playing from behind quite a bit this season. Marshall may continue to see a fair amount of balls thrown his way, especially in a game in which the Panthers are 9.5-point underdogs against the Detroit Lions. I do not think Marshall offers much of a ceiling, but his floor could be more stable than most receivers in his general range.

Honorable Mention

I generally leave running backs out of this weekly report because they are all usually targeted at or behind the line of scrimmage. But every once in a while, a running back will put up a line that causes me to do a double-take. Such was the case last week when Alvin Kamara caught 13 passes… for 33 yards. The volume alone was a boon to fantasy managers, particularly in leagues that utilize PPR scoring.

Kamara finished 19th last week in standard, 12th in half-PPR, and ninth in PPR despite failing to score or record 100 yards from scrimmage. Kamara has now played in one game this season and is already tied for ninth among all running backs in total receptions. There were some questions last week as to whether he should be started, but those have been firmly answered in the affirmative.

Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio