It feels like the first five weeks of the season have flown by! But at the same time, it feels as though we have a full season’s worth of drama behind us and Week 5 was as action-packed as any, even with four teams on bye. The week started out with a bang on Thursday night, so where else would you expect us to start with the dynasty rises and fallers?
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Dynasty Fantasy Football Risers & Fallers
Risers
Justin Fields (QB – CHI) and DJ Moore (WR – CHI)
The fate of DJ Moore is not entirely tied to the success, or lack thereof, of Justin Fields, but there’s no denying that the quarterback’s progression unlocks a higher ceiling for Moore. Through the first three weeks of the season, Fields struggled his way to 526 yards and three touchdowns, along with four interceptions and two fumbles. Looking like a completely different player in the last two weeks, the third-year pro has tallied 617 yards and eight touchdowns in that time span. It’s not surprising that Moore has found far more success in the last two games, but 76.1 fantasy points in that span compared to 34 in his first three games is a ludicrous differential. Fields’ rushing ability allows for a relatively safe floor, but DJ Moore doesn’t have that same safety net. The good news, however, is that the passing offense flows through Moore with a dose of Cole Kmet. Moore leads the team with 34 targets, while Kmet sits at 29, and the next closest receiver is Darnell Mooney, who has seen just 16 passes come his way. It remains to be seen if the Bears’ offense is more of what we saw the first three weeks or the past two, but if Fields and Moore continue to connect at this rate, they will have plenty of fantasy success.
I was admittedly skeptical of Travis Etienne’s usage entering the season. As a Tank Bigsby believer, it wasn’t difficult to envision the rookie taking on short yardage work after the training camp narrative, and the path for Bigsby to take away passing work appeared open as well. Instead, Etienne has kept a stranglehold on the backfield, as he handled 26 carries for 136 yards and two touchdowns on Sunday, and added four receptions for 48 yards through the air. He ran 31 routes, compared to four for Bigsby, and the only other running back carries of the game were the three that Bigsby took. The Jaguars’ offense has been up and down to start the season, but it’s capable of exploding any given week and Etienne’s own explosiveness and role within the offense keeps him as a consistent RB1.
Overshadowed by big performances from other rookie wide receivers, Josh Downs has quietly played a big role in the Colts offense. He was targeted 24 times through the first three weeks but was being held below 10 yards per catch with an ADOT hovering around five yards. In Week 4, his ADOT spiked to 17 while he caught two passes for 34 yards. And on Sunday, he grabbed six passes for 97 yards, good for 16.2 yards per catch. The volume has been there for Downs, but now the team is finding ways to utilize him downfield rather than restricting him to short routes around the line of scrimmage.
Facing his toughest test yet, Brock Purdy turned in a masterpiece on Sunday Night Football against the Cowboys’ rigid defense. He completed 17 of his 24 pass attempts, tallying 252 yards and four touchdowns. It was his best fantasy outing, with 26.08 fantasy points, and marks his third straight week of 20+ points. Nobody will mistake Purdy for a gunslinger, but he has yet to throw an interception and is efficiently running Kyle Shanahan’s offense. He doesn’t need to drop back 40 times per game or offer much on the ground when with an offense masterminded by Shanahan and weapons scattered all around him.
Fallers
The floor fell out from beneath James Cook on Sunday when he rushed five times for -4 yards, catching three passes for 25 yards. It’s not that this trend is expected to continue, but more so that it represents the low floor that Cook offers. With the Bills facing a trailing game script, they rotated all three running backs more than they have in recent weeks, particularly on third downs. In a perfect world, the Bills would trust Cook in pass protection and utilize him around the goal line consistently, but Latavius Murray and Damien Harris aren’t going away. The good news is that Cook still ran 27 routes on Sunday and has caught at least three passes in three of five games, but he is becoming more matchup-dependent than managers hoped for.
The snaps for Rhamondre Stevenson and Ezekiel Elliot have become uncomfortably close to one another, as Stevenson played 27 on Sunday while Elliot took 25. They each carried the ball eight times, but Stevenson saw just one target on 15 routes while Elliot was targeted four times on 10 routes. Stevenson’s presumed role as the lead back on passing down work was a big benefactor for his case as an RB1, after a strong season in that department last year. Not only is that no longer the case, but Elliot is absorbing more of the work than the simple short yardage carries we had expected. It’s not a good outlook for Stevenson, who should be able to leave the dusty Elliot in his trail. It doesn’t help that the entire offense is sputtering, but Stevenson will need to separate from Elliot if there’s any chance for him to be a viable fantasy starter.
The Cowboys offense has primarily played complimentary football to their defense this season, but even when they’ve needed to air it out and play more aggressively, the passing offense has been tough to watch. Dak Prescott posted 4.32 fantasy points on Sunday night, which was his second time this season being held in the single-digit mark. He has also failed to reach 20 or more fantasy points in a game this season. On Sunday, he completed just 14 of 24 passes for an average of 6.4 yards and a QBR of 46.4. He threw three interceptions and although he only has one other interception on the year, he’s only thrown for five touchdowns. Prescott doesn’t look like the same quarterback we became accustomed to, and with an out on his contract after this season, is it time we consider that the Cowboys may look to move on?
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