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    Pat Fitzmaurice | Thu, Oct 19th 2023, 9:52am EDT

Anthony Richardson Dynasty Trade Advice & Injury Outlook (Fantasy Football)

The Indianapolis Colts announced on Monday that rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson will have season-ending surgery to repair a shoulder injury sustained in a Week 5 game against the Titans.

It’s a depressing development for football fans. Richardson was only a few games into his NFL career when he injured his shoulder, but he was already making Colts games appointment viewing. It was a joy to watch this 21-year-old wunderkind play football.

The silver lining is that the injury isn’t expected to derail Richardson’s career. (See the accompanying sidebar from Dr. Deepak Chona for details on Richardson’s injury and the outlook for his recovery.)

The announcement that Richardson will undergo season-ending surgery was unwelcome news for a lot of fantasy managers. The No. 4 pick in this year’s NFL draft had quickly himself as a valuable fantasy asset even in redraft leagues. Let’s take a look at the injury outlook and how to approach Richardson in dynasty leagues. Deepak Chona, MD breaks down the injury implications, while fantasy football analyst Pat Fitzmaurice helps navigate the dynasty trade waters.

Anthony Richardson Dynasty Trade Advice & Injury Outlook

Anthony Richardson (QB – IND) Injury Outlook

It’s never ideal for a QB to be undergoing surgery on his throwing shoulder, but the concern level on Anthony Richardson should remain relatively low. Limited NFL data exists, but ~90% of athletes with a similar profile would return to their sports without problems. Surgical protocols vary a bit, but most would allow him to start throwing again at 3-4 months post-surgery and return to football at six months. He’ll see a temporary decline in his throwing ability but should fully regain both power and accuracy by the start of the 2024 season.

The key long-term question with Richardson has more to do with injury risk. This injury itself doesn’t carry a high re-injury rate, but rushing as a ball carrier has the highest injury rate per play, so it’s key that he learns to avoid big hits and slide as needed. Certainly, the Colts coaching staff will be preaching that with extra emphasis following this injury, so it’s possible that this turns out to be a bit of a blessing to happen early in his career.

— Deepak Chona, MD

Anthony Richardson Fantasy Football Outlook

Richardson started four games and left two of them early. He had four TD runs and three TD passes, and he averaged 43.7 rushing yards per game in his first three starts. Richardson was also proving to be a more advanced passer than advertised.

There was concern that Richardson might struggle as a passer early in his NFL career after spending only one college season as a starter at Florida. He completed only 53.8% of his passes last year and had 17 TD passes and nine interceptions. But Richardson was a competent passer in his first few games with the Colts, completing 59.5% of his throws and averaging 6.9 yards per attempt (the league average is 6.9), with only one interception.

Four starts (two of them incomplete) is a small sample size, but Richardson was averaging 0.43 fantasy points per snap when he got hurt. To put that into perspective, the current leader in QB fantasy scoring, Josh Allen, is averaging 0.37 fantasy points per snap.

Richardson is particularly valuable in dynasty leagues because he’s so young and should have many high-scoring seasons ahead of him.

So, what’s a Richardson dynasty investor to do?

“Hold” is overly simple advice. If your team is in a rebuild or “productive struggle” mode and doesn’t have any chance to win a championship this year, then yes, you’re simply holding Richardson. But what if you’re a Richardson stakeholder with a championship-caliber team?

Title contenders who have Richardson on their dynasty rosters face an interesting dilemma. The young QB’s future value is colossal, and parting with such a valuable asset would be difficult. But the return for Richardson in a dynasty trade would be immense, giving a contending team a turbo boost for the rest of the regular season and the playoffs.

The return on a trade for Richardson would obviously be greater in Superflex dynasty leagues than in 1QB leagues. Let’s assess Richardson’s trade value in both formats.

Richardson’s Trade Value in Superflex Leagues

In Superflex dynasty leagues, Anthony Richardson is pure gold despite the shoulder injury. Yes, his AC joint injury is a reminder that running quarterbacks come with an added injury risk. Richardson had also left one of his starts early with a concussion and missed the following week’s game. But the reward is well worth the risk.

Richardson’s running ability makes it likely he’ll be a top-5 fantasy quarterback for years to come, and his yardage per snap suggests that he could become the most valuable quarterback in fantasy football. This is, after all, a 6-4, 244-pound QB who clocked a 4.43 at the NFL Scouting Combine. Richardson is a unique physical specimen and a dangerous run/pass threat.

The FantasyPros Dynasty Trade Value Chart gives Richardson a numerical value of 96 in superflex leagues. I’m going to list some player combinations that add up to 96 on our trade value chart.

Bear in mind that to make this deal attractive to the non-contending dynasty manager who would be interested in acquiring Richardson, we’re not going to ask for the sort of valuable young players a rebuilding dynasty manager would be reluctant to part with, such as Bijan Robinson or Jaylen Waddle. We’re also not going to ask for future draft picks, because a rebuilding manager certainly wouldn’t want to part with those.

Here are some potential return packages, with the trade value of each player listed in parentheses:

That’s a lot of immediate firepower for a contending team. Mind you, these are packages that add up to exactly 96. With a little leeway on either side of that number, the possible permutations are nearly endless. You should have no trouble putting together a package deal for Richardson that would provide rocket fuel for your championship drive.

Richardson’s Trade Value in 1QB Leagues

Let’s try the same exercise with 1QB leagues. Obviously, the format diminishes the value of quarterbacks. It’s all about supply and demand. The demand for quarterbacks is greatly reduced because you only need to start one every week.

There are about seven high-value veteran QBs in the league right now: Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen, Justin Herbert, Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson and Tua Tagovailoa. There are also some valuable but less stable young QBs (Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields), some credible stopgaps (Jared Goff, Brock Purdy, Geno Smith), and some interesting wild cards who are currently injured but expected to return eventually (Kyler Murray, Deshaun Watson). There are also some exciting young QB prospects who’ll be entering the league next year (Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, et al.), which further dilutes the value of the position. Greater supply = lesser demand.

Our dynasty trade value chart gives Richardson a numerical value of 36 in 1QB leagues. Here are some potential return packages that add up to 29, with the trade value of each player listed in parentheses:

Parting with Richardson in a dynasty league would be difficult, and we certainly don’t recommend it if you’re not a true title contender. Be honest with a self-assessment of your roster before even thinking about dealing away such a valuable young asset. But if you’re a Richardson stakeholder on the cusp of a dynasty championship and all the rewards that come with it, you have to at least consider making a deal that could dramatically improve your title hopes.

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