With Bye Weeks and injuries becoming more and more of an issue each week, it can pay off to be extra focused at this time of year and make sure the players you’re starting actually deserve to be started.

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7 Risky & Safe Starts

Safest

Zay Flowers (WR – BAL)

Through five games Zay Flowers is the Rookie WR2 with his 40 targets trailing only Puka Nacua‘s 63, along with his receiving yards also being the second-highest among rookies (347) and his 93.8% route participation is third among all wide receivers. Flowers has built chemistry quickly with Lamar Jackson and while the Ravens offense is yet to really find their feet, when Flowers is on the field he’s no worse than one of the top two options alongside Mark Andrews.

After scoring his first touchdown on the international stage, Flowers now plays a Lions team that has given up passing scores on five of their last six touchdowns allowed. With Flowers only scoring one touchdown thus far, it’s fair to say we probably haven’t seen his ceiling outcomes yet, but we know that he provides a steady floor and with bye weeks hitting particularly heavy this week, a safe floor can be handy.

Zay Flowers' unique change of direction ability makes him really hard to cover on extended plays and especially in the red zone. Look how much separation he gets here. pic.twitter.com/azFngqXwwa

— Ryan Mink (@ryanmink) October 17, 2023

Raheem Mostert (RB – MIA)

Even the biggest Mike McDaniels run-scheme advocates must be surprised by just how much success 31-year-old Raheem Mostert is having with the Dolphins this year. In 2022 Mostert averaged 0.8 PPR points per touch, which is almost half the 1.5 he’s averaging through six games. Mostert has scored 11 touchdowns through six games, easily surpassing the eight he had totaled in the last two seasons combined.

This week the Dolphins play the Eagles, who are a solid defense against the run, allowing only 3.1 yards per carry. Still, it’s fair to consider they haven’t faced a rushing offense like this, and Mostert is also doing plenty of damage through the air, accumulating 18 receptions and two receiving touchdowns. This is an area the Eagles struggle against, allowing opposing running backs to catch 80% of their targets.

Puka Nacua (WR – LAR)

Yes Cooper Kupp is back and yes, Cooper Kupp is still the alpha of this passing offense, but over the last two weeks, while playing alongside Kupp, Nacua has seen 18 targets and scored 26 PPR points. Of course, it represents a drop off from the incredible numbers Nacua was posting earlier on in the season. However, we can still start Nacua consistently safe in the knowledge you didn’t draft him as your WR1, and your roster likely has enough quality to cope with pushing Nacua back down toward the flex spot. In Week 7 the Rams face a Steelers passing defense that allows the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers, giving up 204 yards per game to the position, which is only beaten by the Chargers.

Travis Etienne (RB – JAC)

It seemed like Travis Etienne’s workhorse days were numbered this offseason when Doug Pederson talked consistently about wanting to add another back to work in the receiving game and short yardage area, but to date, Tank Bigsby has been very disappointing and Travis Etienne has been anything but disappointing. Etienne is the RB5 in points per game, averaging 19.2 points per game, scoring 17 or more in four of his six appearances.

The Jaguars play the Saints in Week 7, who have been stout against the run this year, but their numbers are bolstered by having played a host of underperforming running backs which include, Miles Sanders, Dameon Pierce, Rhamondre Stevenson and Rachaad White. Meanwhile, Etienne enters this game seemingly having gained the full confidence of his coaches and could be relied upon even further if Trevor Lawrence is limited due to a knee sprain he’s dealing with.

Travis Etienne this season:

3 rushing TDs of 20+ yards (leads NFL)
29 missed tackles forced on runs (leads NFL)
352 rush yards after contact (2nd)

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— PFF JAX Jaguars (@PFF_Jaguars) October 17, 2023

Riskiest

DJ Moore (WR – CHI)

Bears fans could be forgiven for wishing for perhaps just one reasonable season without quarterback injuries and question marks, but for the next few weeks those will intensify with Justin Fields expected to miss time due to a dislocated thumb suffered in Week 6. Fields has shown an ability to survive bad quarterback play throughout his career, but expecting much from him in the coming weeks with Tyson Bagent under center might be a touch too far.

In Bagent’s debut, he completed 10 of 14 passes for 83 yards, as well as adding one rushing touchdown, a fumble and an interception en route to the Bears’ 19-13 loss. When Bagent was in the game he targeted Moore on six of his 14 passes, completing four, with his interception occurring on a DJ Moore target also. In Week 7 the Bears face a Raiders defense that is far from elite, but feeling confident about Moore would be a very risky proposition.

DeVonta Smith (WR – PHI)

No wide receivers across the league have a higher snap share than Devonta Smith’s 98%, but it hasn’t come to fruition for the Slim Reaper of late with single-digit PPR performances in three of his last four games. AJ Brown has been on a tear since tearing into Jalen Hurts on the sideline, with 99.4 points in his last four games, meanwhile with the offense trying to get Dallas Goedert going, and finding success with D’Andre Swift, Smith has been left out in the cold somewhat. We all know the blow-up week is coming sooner or later for Smith, and it very well could be this week against a Miami defense that allows the sixth-highest catch rate to opposing wide receivers, but that could also very well mean another big week for Brown while Smith gets his cardio in on the boundary.

Since the start of the 2022 season, DeVonta Smith ranks:

– 32nd in target per route run rate
– 32nd in yards per route run

Some WRs who rank ahead of DeVonta in BOTH metrics during that time: Nico Collins, Jakobi Meyers, Tyler Lockett, Mike Evans, Drake London, Chris Godwin

— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) October 17, 2023

Najee Harris (RB – PIT)

There remains a possibility that coming out of the bye week the Steelers will have a coming to Jesus moment and realize that Jaylen Warren is the more elusive and efficient back in Pittsburgh and turn the majority of work over to the second-year undrafted free agent. Of course, there is the possibility that Harris continues to out-snap at a rate of 55-45% even if he does continue to score 0.5 points per touch to Warren’s 0.9. However, we haven’t seen enough from this Steelers’ offense, who rank 28th in offensive DVOA, to believe they can go on the road to the LA Rams and turn it into a points-fest for Harris against a Rams defense allowing the seventh-fewest points per game to opposing running backs.