Mike Fanelli | Sat, Oct 14th 2023, 6:55am EDT

6 Last-Minute Fantasy Football Waiver Wire Pickups & Injury Replacements (Week 6)

Fantasy football can be an extremely fun game to play. It can also be highly frustrating at times. Nothing is more annoying than needing to make a last-minute waiver-wire move because someone in your starting lineup is out for the week.

Sadly, there isn’t much you can do about it. However, I’m going to try and help.

Every week I will have six players you can grab off the waiver wire at the last minute and throw into your lineup. Some will succeed, while others will fail. Unfortunately, that’s how the game of fantasy football is played.

Last-Minute Waiver Wire Pickups & Injury Replacements

All the players in this article are rostered in under 35% of ESPN leagues.

Baker Mayfield (QB – TB) vs. Detroit Lions (18.5% Rostered)

Many thought Tampa Bay would turn to Kyle Trask during their bye week. Instead, Mayfield has played well, and the team is in first place in the NFC South. The former Oklahoma star has averaged 16.8 fantasy points per game this year. Furthermore, he has been excellent outside of the matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles, averaging 245.3 passing yards, two touchdowns, and 19.1 fantasy points per game. According to Fantasy Points Data, the former No. 1 overall ranked eighth in completion percentage over expectation (6.2%) during those three matchups.

Meanwhile, Detroit has put together an elite run defense this season. However, their passing defense has been average, surrendering 16.7 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks over the first four weeks. Bryce Young had two passing touchdowns entering Week 5. Then, he had 247 passing yards, three touchdowns, and 18.3 fantasy points against the Lions on Sunday, all career highs. More importantly, they have surrendered 261.8 passing yards, two touchdowns, and 19.7 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks not named Desmond Ridder this year. Mayfield is the perfect last-minute replacement for Deshaun Watson.

Chuba Hubbard (RB – CAR) vs. Miami Dolphins (25.4% Rostered)

Carolina ruled Miles Sanders out of this week’s game with a shoulder injury. Therefore, Hubbard will have a featured role. The former Oklahoma State star had a role even with Sanders healthy, averaging 5.4 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. More importantly, he has averaged 7.1 fantasy points per game in the two contests with at least 11 touches despite not scoring a touchdown this year. According to Fantasy Points Data, Hubbard has averaged a higher missed forced tackles per rushing attempt average than Sanders (0.34-0.11) this season.

Unfortunately, the projected game script isn’t ideal for the third-year running back. Carolina is the 14-point underdog against Miami. However, Hubbard has a 19% target per route run rate, the fifth-highest among qualifying players on the team. Meanwhile, the Dolphins had no trouble slowing down the New York Giants running backs, minus Saquon Barkley last week. Yet, they surrendered one rushing touchdown and 22.6 fantasy points per game to running backs over the first four weeks this year. With Sanders out of the lineup, Hubbard will have a featured role and be heavily involved in the passing game.

Fantasy players who miss out on Hubbard can pivot to Latavius Murray against the New York Giants. The veteran has been the clear-cut No. 2 running back behind James Cook. He has found the end zone in two of the past four weeks, averaging 6.6 fantasy points per game since Week 1. Meanwhile, the Giants have surrendered 1.4 rushing touchdowns and 25 fantasy points per game to running backs this season. Murray is rostered in only 6.1% of ESPN leagues.

D’Onta Foreman (RB – CHI) vs. Minnesota Vikings (15.2% Rostered)

Khalil Herbert will miss a few weeks with a high ankle sprain. Meanwhile, Roschon Johnson suffered a concussion in Week 5 and won’t play against the Vikings. That means Foreman will be active for the first time since Week 1 and have a featured role. More importantly, the former Longhorn was impressive last year with the Carolina Panthers. After the team traded away Christian McCaffrey, Foreman averaged 79.7 rushing yards and 11.3 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. According to Fantasy Points Data, the veteran running back had the fourth-most explosive rushing yards last season after the team traded away McCaffrey.

Furthermore, the former Longhorn had the third-most yards after contact over the final 11 weeks of the 2022 season. According to Fantasy Points Data, the Vikings have given up 62.7% of their rushing yards after contact this year, the ninth-most in the NFL. Minnesota has held running backs to only 14.5 fantasy points per game in 2023, the ninth-fewest in the league. However, they have surrendered 92.3 rushing yards per game to the position since Week 1. Foreman is a safe floor low-end RB2, thanks to his projected workload this week.

Josh Downs (WR – IND) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (28.9% Rostered)

With Anthony Richardson spending at least the next four weeks on injured reserve, Gardner Minshew will take over under center. That’s good news for Downs, who has played better with the veteran quarterback. The former UNC star is the WR51, averaging 7.4 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. However, he has averaged 9.4 fantasy points per game in three contests that Minshew had at least three pass attempts. More importantly, Downs is coming off the best performance in his career, catching all six targets for 97 receiving yards and 12.7 fantasy points against the Tennessee Titans.

Meanwhile, Jacksonville has struggled to slow down opposing wide receivers outside of the matchup against the Atlanta Falcons, giving up 15 yards per reception and 34.6 fantasy points per game. Furthermore, they have surrendered six receiving touchdowns to wide receivers this season. Meanwhile, Downs has been productive with Minshew under center. In the three games with the veteran quarterback, the rookie receiver has averaged a 28% target per route run rate, a 22.5% air yards share, and 2.42 yards per route run. Fantasy players should pick up Downs, start him, and keep him on their roster.

Jonathan Mingo (WR – CAR) vs. Miami Dolphins (11.4% Rostered)

I get it – two Carolina players in one article? Yet, Mingo has been decent this season. The rookie is the WR86, averaging 4.4 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. However, he has missed 1.5 games because of a concussion. More importantly. Mingo has finished second among the wide receivers on the team in targets in every game he has started and finished, including last week. According to Fantasy Points Data, Mingo is the second-highest targeted wide receiver on the roster (18%), only behind Adam Thielen (22%) in his three healthy games.

While Miami held the New York Giants wide receivers to only 16.9 fantasy points in Week 5, they struggled to slow down wide receivers over the first four weeks. Before last week’s matchup, the Dolphins surrendered five receiving touchdowns and 33.9 fantasy points per game to wide receivers. Furthermore, according to Fantasy Points Data, Miami has given up the fifth-highest catch rate (76.1%) this season. Carolina will be in negative game script most of the day, creating plenty of opportunities for Mingo to score garbage time fantasy points.

Logan Thomas (TE – WAS) vs. Atlanta Falcons (34.5% Rostered)

Thomas missed 1.5 games with a concussion. Yet, he is still the TE9 for the year, averaging 9.4 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. The veteran tight end is coming off his best performance of the season, totaling nine receptions on 11 targets for 77 receiving yards, a touchdown, and 16.2 fantasy points against the Chicago Bears. More importantly, Thomas has been a go-to target for Sam Howell. According to Fantasy Points Data, the veteran tight end has a higher target per route run rate (18%) than Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson, or Curtis Samuel.

Atlanta has surrendered 62.6 receiving yards (the fourth-most) and 13.4 fantasy points (the second-most) per game to tight ends this season. Furthermore, the Falcons have given up at least 80 receiving yards, a touchdown, and 18 fantasy points to tight ends in two of the past three weeks. According to Fantasy Points Data, Dalton Schultz had the third-highest air yards share (31.7%) and second-high target per route run rate (43%) among qualifying tight ends last week against the Falcons. After finishing last week as the TE5, Thomas could have another top-five performance in Week 6.

Unfortunately, Thomas is near the 35% rostered number for this article. Therefore, I have a desperate long-shot backup tight end option – Cade Otton (1.9% rostered) against the Detroit Lions. The second-year tight end has averaged eight fantasy points per game in the two contests with more than three targets this season. Meanwhile, the Lions have given up 13.1 fantasy points per game to tight end this year, the third-most in the NFL. Last week, Detroit gave up a touchdown to Tommy Tremble. Hopefully, Otton can find the end zone for the second consecutive contest.

Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.

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