Week 8 is here! This week has a weird caveat that changes the rules for approaching our stats and research. There are ZERO NFL teams on bye after a plethora of teams had the week off in Week 7.
The NFL may want to compete with the NBA or the World Series, but regardless, we now have to focus our research not on finding the best plug-and-play option on our existing roster. Let me help you navigate the overwhelming flood of thoughts around your lineup construction.
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Stats To Know Before Setting Your Fantasy Football Lineup
Let’s start this week with a straightforward rule concerning the Dolphins’ wide receivers.
K.I.S.S.
“Great Advice. Hurts my feelings every time” – Dwight Schrute
The Office had it right when they composed this line and Dwight delivered it perfectly. Keeping things simple can help you in your fantasy football approach. Your approach is about to hit a fork in the road due to injuries within the Dolphins’ wide receiver core. Let’s first discuss Tyreek Hill, as his status is up in the air and a quote from his quarterback, Tua Tagovailoa, had the entirety of Twitter up in arms this week. Tua said:
” No one can emulate What Tyreek does on the field… If we couldn’t have Tyreek, that would be tough. But the show goes on. We’ve got to continue to play. Somewhere down the line, we’re going to get Tyreek back.”
Those are not words of comfort from his quarterback that make us feel like he will play in Week 8. We must also remember that Jaylen Waddle was exiting the game multiple times last week with his back flaring up. So, who should we turn to in the offense if we turn to anyone?
Well, the answer to that question is veteran wide receiver Braxton Berrios. When we remove Hill and Waddle from our research, we see that Berrios is amongst the leaders in first-read targets on the Dolphins. We also can extrapolate that Berrios is leading the team in Hero receptions (even with Hill and Waddle within the model). These two stats show us the developed trust between Tua and head coach Mike McDaniel with Berrios in this offensive scheme.
Another reason to lean on Berrios over the rest of the roster is his slot rate percentage. Berrios has a 53.8 Slot Rate %, which is crucial to the following rule: Depending on a slot wide receiver’s safe floor allows us to take advantage of designed plays within the offense. The Dolphins beat the Patriots in the first matchup by running the ball. Expect Bill Belichick to take this away and force Tua to beat his team with a weakened pass attack.
I Will Walk 500 Miles and I Will Use Miles Sanders More
Ignore my weak reference to a one-hit wonder, but let us discuss Sanders. He was a highly-debated draft pick this season, with many analysts stating that Chuba Hubbard will and has taken over in this offense. We are here to tell you to remember to research the critical downs within an offense.
Do you know which snaps are significant? The snaps that take place within the five-yard line. In the Panthers’ offense, Sanders takes 100% of the snaps/attempts within the five-yard line. With Houston tied for sixth-most rushing touchdowns allowed this season, Sanders can help elevate your team, so don’t count him out for Week 8 (barring injury) just yet.
BONUS STAT
Let’s stick with Inside 5% and show you a few running backs who were high draft picks struggling within this stat line. The first player is Dameon Pierce, sitting at 23rd overall with a 60% rate within five yards.
Now, Pierce is game-script dependent (something I have shouted from the rooftops all offseason). Thankfully, he faces the Panthers, who allow the most rushing touchdowns in 2023 to running backs. With the Texans favored to win this week, expect Dameon Pierce to elevate this number and dominate for Week 8 fantasy football.
The next running back is Rhamondre Stevenson, who is just destroying every fantasy roster one roster at a time in 2023. He has an Inside 5% of 40%. This low percentage is not what we imagined this year, and, with Ezekiel Elliot eating into his production at this level, Stevenson has become a flex-worthy option in your lineup. If you have a more solidified option, use it.
“Pressure Pushin’ Down On Me, Pressing Down On You”
Yes, we stick with the song references to explain how weary we should be of the debut Will Levis start this Sunday for the Titans. First thing to explain, we know this offense is appalling. We don’t need to break it down in depth as it’s Week 8 and we have all seen it with our eyes. However, what most people miss when watching the Titans is the pressure percentage per Dropback.
Malik Willis faced pressure 58.3% of the time, with Ryan Tannehill facing pressure 33.3% of the time. Levis must lean on Derrick Henry and checkdowns to remain upright this weekend. You should avoid this home-run play at quarterback, but, if you need a streaming defense, the Falcons have a prime matchup in Week 8.
Fast & Furious Sequels= This Fantasy Football Stat
We have spoken about this stat more often than there are Fast & Furious sequels. However, you want to continue to target outside wide receivers against the Steelers. Outside wide receivers have been able to “EAT” against this defensive back room. Last week was another example, as Puka Nacua had a monster game against the Steelers.
So, who should be in our lineup even after a few weeks of disappointments? Well, that would be Calvin Ridley. Ridley is 6’1 and has the skill set to take over a football game anytime. Please don’t lose faith in Ridley, even with a few weeks of struggle, as he should return to form in Week 8.
Remember to read all the fantastic work here at FantasyPros and don’t hesitate to contact me on Twitter at @jpep20 if you need more help. Good luck in Week 8!
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