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Players to Buy
In the running game, Tony Pollard provided a spark with 47 rushing yards on just 11 carries, while adding three targets. He still hasn’t scored – amid the Dallas offense red-zone struggles – but eventually, he’ll hit paydirt. He has 31 red zone touches in four games. Hasn’t scored since Week 1.
Also ignore the final snap count for Pollard. Blow-out win had just five touches in the 2nd half.
If somebody is getting frustrated with Pollard, you gladly take him off their hands with a trade.
Bijan Robinson was the standout running back for Atlanta, rushing for 105 yards on 14 carries. He consistently moved the chains and helped in the receiving game. 5 catches for 32 yards on 5 targets. 76% snap share was very strong. Leads the team in targets through four games (21% target share).
He continues to be a strong buy low target. Meanwhile, Tyler Allgeier‘s snaps continue to decrease (26%).
Texans and Commanders are the next two matchups. Falcons tend to play much better at home than on the road.
The Jaguars’ running game, led by Travis Etienne, aimed to control the clock. Despite gaining only 55 yards on 20 carries, the ground attack helped sustain drives and control field position. No big runs (long of 7).
Also tallied three catches. 23 touches. 85% snap share. Continues to be a bell cow. Third in the NFL in touches.
Still think ETN’s usage is not reflecting his final box scores. The Jags offense is still finding their footing, as they have had to shuffle the OL.
They get back starting tackle Cam Robinson back soon from suspension.
The offense will need to be up to the tall order with the Bills storming the castle in their second London game in a row in Week 5.
Ezekiell Elliott is going to see “starter snaps.” 40% snap share. Rhamondre Stevenson starts the game. 54% snap share.
Not like it mattered much in a total blow-out performance. But hey, at least the under cashed!
Stevenson led the way with 14 carries for 30 yards while chipping in 2 catches for 10 yards (3 targets). Stevenson’s had all the volume he can handle – 18-plus touches in all four games – and we know he can be efficient. Just hasn’t been the case so far this year. Still a buy low target.
Elliott’s so-called “starter snaps” translated into 2 catches and 6 carries for 16 yards. Sick.
Another tough day at the office for the Bengals offense. Joe Burrow was held under 170 passing yards. Joe Mixon rushed for 67 yards on 14 carries (1 target) but maintained his alpha usage. 79% snap share. Remains a trade for target as one of the few three-down RBs remaining in fantasy football. Attainable with the negative stigma surrounding Cincy.
Running back James Cook was inefficient – 12 for 29 – but he scored a red zone TD! It was a bizzarro turn of events as a long Latavius Murray rush (29 yards) put Cook in command near the end zone. Don’t anticipate him having the red zone role every week, but the limited red-zone looks he is getting the last two weeks is encouraging none of the less. And the fact that he converted matters. Coaches see it.
Only played 40% of the snaps, but he only had three carries in the second half.
Cook also caught a wheel route for a massive 48-yard gain. Not sure how high the market is fully on Cook, but I love targeting him in trades attached to this offense.
Brian Robinson was the key contributor in the rushing game, gaining 45 yards on 14 carries and finding the end zone once. He should have scored twice but fumbled into the end zone (recovered by Terry McLaurin). Totaled four red-zone targets. Played 55% of the snaps and ran just one fewer route than Gibson. That’s huge.
Antonio Gibson took a backseat in the receiving game to BRob, who saw 2 targets for Gibby’s one. Positive development for Robinson, who the team just seems to love. If we get him in a full three-down role, he will be a fringe fantasy RB1. Buy high. Could be in for a monster game versus Chicago. He’s currently tied for 3rd in the NFL in rushing yards (pending MNF).
I felt like I was on an island last week backing my stance for Isiah Pacheco last week, and he came through BIG. 20 carries for 115 yards and 1 TD on SNF. Caught three balls for 43 on 3 targets. 4 red-zone carries including the score.
Other Chiefs RBs combined for just 5 carries, 19 rushing yards and 2 targets. Dare I say, Pacheco is a bell cow with a 60% snap share. Career. High. Buy high.
Jahmyr Gibbs managers looks away. The rookie RB’s usage returned to “meh” with him playing just 37% of the snaps. Lowest snap rate since Week 1 (27%). Although the touches remained relatively high at 12. 8 for 40 rushing yards (5.0 yards per carry) and four receptions on five targets.
Montgomery has scored five touchdowns in just three games, and it’s pretty clear that role is not going away. And in positive game scripts versus plus-matchups, Monty will routinely see 20-plus carries. All in all, it is hard to not view him as at least a backend fantasy RB1 for the rest of the season as a grinder on an above average offense. He has another great matchup on deck versus Carolina in Week 5.
As for Gibbs, I still think there’s enough equity in the offense for him to be a fantasy RB2 the rest of season, with obvious room to grow if his role increases down the stretch (as it typically does for rookies). He’s flashed efficiency and as a pass-catcher (14% target share).
However, the chances of him unseating Montgomery is very unlikely without an injury. Say what you like about Montgomery stylistically as a rusher, but the Lions LOVE what he is doing. 9th in success rate even at 3.8 yards per carry. Meanwhile, Gibbs ranks third worst in rushing success rate (36%) despite a superior 4.6 yards per carry.
If I needed wins now, I’d probably trade Gibbs for Monty straight up. In a vacuum I’d still like to buy low on Gibbs – as a bet on talent for a rookie RB that is still offering some value in PPR formats even as the RB2 on his own team. His role is somewhat similar to James Cook – although Gibbs’ rush share is vastly inferior.
If I were to buy low on any Jets player, it would be Breece Hall.
The plucky Jets gave the Chiefs quite the scare on Sunday night, but them came up just short of the massive upset.
The backfield was hardly used. Breece Hall carried the ball 6 times for 56 yards – big 43-yard gain – while Dalvin Cook went 5 for 16. Return ace Xavier Gipson chipped in two carries for 13 yards.
Hall also added three catches for 13 yards on four targets wrapping his night up with 44% snap share (26 snaps). Cook settled at just 25%.
The time is now to buy Hall. He is slowing edging out Cook, while flashing the explosive upside we saw pre torn ACL last season. With the Jets showing some signs of life vs KC, there’s a chance that Hall can still be a league-winner in the second half of the season.
The Broncos are the league’s worst defense, where we could finally see Hall go NUCLEAR and remind us all why he was drafted so highly. Just $5.4K on DK.
The Ravens utilized a committee of running backs. Gus Edwards led the way with 15 carries for 48 yards (69% snap share). Justice Hill went 3 for 33 (12% snap share), Melvin Gordon went 3 for 21 (19% snap share). Gus Bus also earned 3 targets with a shockingly high route participation (65%).
All aboard the Gus Bus.
He’s the only Ravens RB you can rely on. Got the reeling Steelers defense up next, then a juggernaut in the Tennessee Titans.
Players to Sell
Nobody is more hot or cold than the Titans. One week they can’t do anything, the next they just dominate. Derrick Henry got rolling with 122 yards on 22 carries with 1 long rushing TD (1 target, 59% snap share). Also threw a TD at the goal line. Tyjae Spears carried the ball 5 times for 40 yards while adding three catches on 4 targets – but he also still played 53% of the snaps. Spears also ran more routes per usual.
This one is too easy. Sell high on Henry. Again, as I mentioned at the top. This team is super-hot/cold. Sell high while the getting is good. Be afraid of a fierce Colts defensive line in Week 5 on the road. Don’t get things confused. The Titans offensive line is still bad. Bad Ols don’t travel.
And note that Henry’s usage is still nowhere near where it was last season with Spears threating his total workload. Spears is part of the offensive game plan every week.
The New Orleans Saints took a different approach with their backfield than Tampa Bay, relying heavily on Alvin Kamara in both the running and passing game in his first game back from the suspension. Kamara had a whopping 14 targets, leading to an impressive 13 receptions albeit for 33 yards, showcasing his versatility as a dual threat running back. 70% route participation. 75% snap share. 37% target share.
However, the fact that the Saints offense struggled mightily does not suggest to me that this exact usage is what we will see every week from New Orleans’ offense. This offense isn’t good right now, and Kamara said as much after the game. “It’s been two years since we had that offense that was rolling.” Woof.
In the rushing department, Dameon Pierce led the way with 24 carries for 81 yards, showcasing his ability to grind out tough yardage. 2 targets and one catch for 27 yards. Played a season-high 59% of the snaps. Although the route participation stayed the same (36%).
Devin Singletary added 7 carries for 25 yards and threw a TD to Schultz. Five carries came in the 4th quarter. As this team gets healthier, specifically the OL, this offense can get even better. That makes all offensive pieces buys on this roster.
In the running game, Chuba Hubbard and Miles Sanders split carries. Hubbard carried the ball 14 times for 41 yards, while Sanders contributed 19 yards on 13 carries. Sanders was questionable entering the game, so I’d have to imagine why there was such a stark split versus the first three weeks. 1st half Sanders had 7 carries for 9 yards.
But Hubbard was very much involved. 2 targets to Sanders’ 3 targets while also running more routes. Also earned 5 red zone carries to Sanders’ 2.
Hubbard also out-snapped Sanders 54% to 43%. Can’t really do much with Sanders given his injury and bad game top try and move him (do it if you can), aside from trying to target Hubbard either off waivers or through trade. Sanders’ receiving usage has been buoying his production which could go away in favor Hubbard. That’s a problem for Sanders, who ranks dead last in rushing success rate this season (31.5%).
Alexander Mattison was the workhorse in the Vikings’ backfield, amassing 95 rushing yards on 17 carries. Cam Akers‘ debut did little to impact him on the surface, as the former Ram carried the ball just 5 times…but 40 yards. 8 yards per carry. Oh. That’s new. And it was TRUE 8 yards per carry. Rushes of 6, 8, 9, 7 and 10.
And Akers – who has been a total zero in the passing game throughout his career – sees two targets to Mattison’s one in his first game as a Viking. Saw 7 routes to Mattison’s 10.
Sell high. Akers’ 7 touches and 29% snap share was already higher than any snap rate or workload Ty Chandler had through three games. Mattison’s 69% snap share was a season low.
Pierre Strong was the standout performer with 5 carries for 49 yards, averaging an impressive 9.8 yards per carry. Although it came all in garbage time for a second straight game. Jerome Ford started but was underwhelming with 9 for 26, but he caught 5 passes on 6 targets. Kareem Hunt also tallied 5 carries, but was not targeted.
Bye week, and then the 49ers up next in Week 6. Not great for Ford. Sell high. Ranks second to last in the NFL in rushing success rate (34%) and total rushing EPA this season. So, although I’ll acknowledge his snaps and receiving usage is encouraging the schedule and Hunt’s potential to take larger chunk concern me long term. Note that in the first half it was just 6 to 4 carries between Ford and Hunt.
In the rushing department, Khalil Herbert led the Bears’ ground attack with 18 carries for 103 yards and a touchdown. 78% snap share. YLTSI.
Roschon Johnson‘s time will have to wait seems like. 5 carries for 13 yards. 1 target. Herbert had 5 targets, catching four for 19 yards. Just a 22% snap share.
And of course, they finally use Herbert the week I boldly predict that RJ takes a bigger role. That’s fantasy football for you.
We saw last year once this offense got going, they gained momentum. Use that as your selling point.
So, for now, I am mostly holding my Bears skill players or selling for max ROI. Again, the Broncos are probably the worst defense in the NFL. We have seen teams come crashing back to Earth the following week after beating up on Denver’s defense. Although in an interesting scheduling quirk, the first three teams to face Denver played the Bills the week after, going 0-3 versus the spread (2-1 toward the over) with an average margin of loss by 31 points.
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