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Players to Buy
Running backs Tyler Allgeier and Bijan Robinson split the ground game duties in Week 6, with each receiving 13 carries. While the rushing attack didn’t find the end zone, the pair combined for 88 yards, demonstrating their ability to move the chains.
Robinson was a reliable receiver out of the backfield, catching 5 passes for 43 yards, contributing to the passing game’s success (8 targets, 18% target share). Been preaching this for a while but BUY LOW on Robinson.
77% snap share was his second-highest mark of the year. He led the team in routes run. Also saw 2 red zone carries to Allgeier’s four.
Breece Hall had a decent outing with 12 carries for 39 yards and a touchdown. But the usage is salivating. Hall got there for fantasy with 5 catches for 54 yards on 5 targets. The three down role and usage has returned. YLTSI. 66% snap share. 60% route participation. Bell. Cow.
Dalvin Cook had just 3 carries for 12 yards. Michael Carter with just two RB opportunities. Dust. If Jets can just focus on everything around Hall and Garrett Wilson, we should be okay for fantasy purposes. Schedule second half of the season is JUICY. Giants, Chargers, Raiders, Bills and Dolphins up next. Can’t believe I am saying this but….buy Jets.
Brandon Aiyuk dominated the targets (10, 42% target share) but Brock Purdy kept missing him deep. Still went 4 for 76 despite 158 air yards (62%).
He owns a top-10 target share (30%) and league-leading 54% air yard share this season. Only
Cooper Kupp ranks higher in total weighted opportunity than Aiyuk this season.
Cooper Kupp remained WR1 with 7 catches for 148 yards and 1 TD (9 targets, 43% target share). Targets remained concentrated between Kupp and Puka Nacua (7 targets, 33% target share).
Although Nacua had his worst game to date. 4 for 26. Dropped a TD. Buy Low.
He and Kupp ran a route on 100% of the dropbacks.
Nobody else is involved in this passing attack outside these top two guys. Kyren Williams was a monster on the ground. 20 for 158 and 1 TD. Ronnie Rivers got banged up, so Zach Evans got some run late. Rivers is expected to miss time, making Evans the next handcuff to Kyren (who is also expected to miss Sunday’s game with a sprained ankle).
Saquon Barkley is back. After missing some time with a high ankle sprain, Barkley returned to the lineup and played 78% of the snaps. The team fed him 24 times for 93 yards on the ground and he added 4 catches for 5 yards. He looked like his explosive self, with rushes of 34 yards and 19 yards.
In the receiving game, Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf were the primary targets. Lockett was targeted 8 times, securing 6 receptions for 94 yards, while Metcalf received 10 targets (27% target share), making 4 receptions for 69 yards. Their involvement remained crucial in the Seahawks’ aerial assault. Additionally, Jaxon Smith-Njigba (5 targets, 14% target share, 2 red-zone targets) Jake Bobo (2 targets) and Kenneth Walker (3 targets) all contributed with multiple receptions, helping to spread the ball around.
The big takeaway here is that we DID see a usage bump come from Smith-Njigba ($3,900 on DraftKings). Tied Lockett and Metcalf for the team lead in routes run (81%). Was a season-high snap share (72%). Posted season-high in receiving yards (48) with two red-zone targets. Make sure he is not available on waivers.
At the same time, it’s prime time to sell high on Tyler Lockett. Strong yardage output in Week 6 was boosted by two catches of 30-plus yards. He had zero catches of 20-plus yard air targets entering the game (0-for-7).
I’d also be buying Metcalf aggressively ($6,800 on DraftKings). 143 air yards and 10 targets should be more than 4 for 69. Was targeted thrice in the red zone, but no TDs.
DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert contributed but not nearly to the level of AJB WR1 szn. Smith had all the targets he could handle with a team-high 11 targets (26% target share, 154 air yards) but finished with just five catches for 44 yards. DG wasn’t running nearly the same number of routes, so something to monitor. Maybe related to the injury to Lane Johnson. Something to monitor.
The Dolphins, Commanders and Cowboys over the Eagles’ next 3 games. Buy low on Smith. The usage, the routes, the matchups and the talent are ALL there for the taking.
Jaylen Waddle made a significant impact, with 7 receptions for 51 yards, and a touchdown reception (9 targets, 30% target share). Two more red-zone targets as the team is clearly trying to get him usage when they close in on scoring.
Buy low on Waddle. The eruption game is coming. 9-plus targets in back-to-back weeks.
Eagles on SNF (oh baby), Patriots and Chiefs up next.
In the passing game, Amari Cooper emerged as the primary target, being targeted 8 times (24%), securing 4 receptions for 108 yards, averaging a remarkable 27 yards per catch. Cooper’s highlight-reel ability was a highlight of the Browns’ passing attack. He also continues to dominate the team’s air yards (42%).
Elijah Moore saw 7 targets (21%) but was not very effective with just 4 catches for 19 yards. Still, very clear emphasis trying to get him the ball. He also had 3 carries.
The Colts, Seattle and Arizona are up next. Buy low on ALL the Browns WRs with the team hopeful that Deshaun Watson can make his return. And P.J. Walker showed that he can least support fantasy viable options if Watson isn’t ready for Week 8.
Rhamondre Stevenson had a solid game on the ground, recording 46 yards on 10 carries, including a touchdown. His power and ability to find running lanes were evident. Stevenson was productive in the passing game, with 5 receptions for 24 yards (6 targets, 19% target share). The receiving usage was a great return to form, as Mondre ran a route on 63% of dropbacks.
He did leave the game briefly after being checked for an injury but returned. Played 65% of the snaps. Buy. The Bills cannot stop the run. Stevenson is $5.6K on DK in Week 7.
Buy Isiah Pacheco.
Pacheco remains on the league’s under-the-radar bell cows. Another 16 carries for 62 yards with increased receiving usage. 6 for 6 for 36 yards (15% target share). 63% snap share. Tied Jerick McKinnon in routes run (18) for the second straight week.
He faces DEN again and the Chargers in the next two games. Buy.
Garrett Wilson contributed 8 receptions for 90 yards on a whopping 12 targets (36% target share, 48% air yard share). He continues to amaze and deliver with a horrible QB.
Wilson ranks 5th in the NFL in target share (32%) and air yards share (45%).
If Jets can just focus on everything around Hall and Wilson, we should be okay for fantasy purposes.
Schedule second half of the season is JUICY. Giants, Chargers, Raiders, Bills and Dolphins up next.
Can’t believe I am saying this but….buy Jets.
Devin Singletary took the lead, carrying the ball 12 times for 58 yards, averaging 4.8 yards per carry. Led the backfield with a 54% snap share. Ran a route on 56% of the dropbacks which boosted his total snap numbers.
Dameon Pierce contributed 13 carries for 34 yards. It was bizarre to see Singletary play so much after not tallying any carries last week. Led team in carries in the first half (9 vs. 8). Pierce was held to just a 33% snap share. Woof.
Pierce also had the chance for a massive run blown dead by the whistle. Also, his poor ypc is somewhat contributed to getting stuffed at the goal-line thrice. With Carolina coming after the bye week and the Texans offense line getting healthy, I’d be looking at Pierce as a sharp buy low target. He still started.
He is still a zero in the passing game, but he should have more productive games with Houston playing more competitively.
The entire Cardinals passing game was ineffective. Still, Marquise Brown led with 11 targets and finished with 4 catches for 34 yards. Michael Wilson led the team with 62 receiving yards on 3 catches (4 targets).
Mostly garbage time though. As were Brown’s 11 targets (29% target share, 183 air yards). Although Josh Dobbs missed Brown early that could have easily been a TD to go along with 3 red-zone targets. He will bounce back.
On the year, Hollywood Brown ranks 14th in the NFL with a 29% target share and 5th in air yards share (45%). Very cheap on DraftKings this week at $5,300.
The Bengals’ receiving corps was highlighted by Ja’Marr Chase, who received 13 targets and caught 6 passes for 80 yards. Chase’s contributions were significant in moving the ball downfield. Additionally, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, and Joe Mixon were also essential receiving options, collectively contributing to the Bengals’ passing attack. Boyd scored while catching all 7 targets for 38 yards. Higgins was a major bust – again – with 2 for 20 on 4 targets. He has had one good game this season…Worth noting that he did not play a full-time role – 56% route participation – as he continues to deal with the rib injury. But with a bye week, I think he will be healthier making him a screaming BUY LOW. Again, I say this because his production is going to regress positively. Higgins has always been a fantasy WR2 throughout his entire three-year career. Currently he is WR64. But it’s justified based on the injury and slow start for the offense.
He won’t finish that poorly over the rest of season. The definition of a buy-low WR, with the most fantasy points scored UNDER expectation. Higgins is WR21 in expected points per game. WR58 in actual points per game.
He won’t finish that poorly over the rest of season. The definition of a buy-low WR.
Bye week, then 49ers/Bills.
After Jerry Jeudy had been emerging as the No. 1 WR, Courtland reclaimed No. 1 duties commanding 6 targets for 46 yards with a great TD catch. Jeudy – who was ripped by Steve Smith during pre-game festivities – was a major disappointment. 3 catches for 14 yards on 5 targets (22%). Obviously when the QB throws for just 95 yards all WRs are going to disappoint.
Nobody else saw more than 2 targets. Marvin Mims was not targeted on any of his seven routes run (23% snap share). Seriously Sean Payton. I want to hold Mims. But if you have to make a move, hard to justify holding a guy that barely plays.
Again, this WR room is going to get shaken up before the trade deadline. I’d buy Jeudy for next to nothing with the hopes he gets traded.
Rashee Rice only saw four targets – but caught all of them four 72 yards with 55 coming after the catch. I’ve been saying it since Week 1. This is the only KC WR you want on your fantasy team. He is showing out and is earning more opportunities. This team needs somebody to step up behind Kelce, and Rice looks like that guy.
49% snap share was his highest since Week 3 (blow-out game). Tied for the second most routes run behind Marquez Valdes-Scantling. Ran a route on 51% of the dropbacks.
Every time he is on the field they are looking to feed him the ball. 31% target rate per route run.
And the Justin Watson injury creates more snaps/routes for Rice to take on. Buy the rookie.
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