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Players to Buy
Ja’Marr Chase finished with 7 for 73 on a team-high 9 targets (33% Target share). Tee Higgins left the game with an injury that was later reported as a rib fracture. Tyler Boyd was second with 7 targets (4 for 26). But he also led the team in air yards (56%, 71).
Trenton Irwin picked up the majority of snaps and routes in Higgins’ absence.
If they can’t get going versus the Cardinals and Seahawks in the next two weeks, it might be over the Bengals.
I still think Chase is worth buying because he can be a true league-winner if things do improve for Cincy down the stretch. Higgins looks like he is going to miss time, which could potentially put Chase through the roof production wise. Already this season, Chase owns a 29% Target share.
Larger note on Cincy. On the first drive the offense looked fine. Burrow scramble early on, the run game was effective versus arguably the best defensive line in the league. Then the Titans absolutely BLASTED Burrow, as their pass rush started to heat up. Bengals couldn’t generate any explosive plays, that the Titans were able to do on their side of the ball. Game. Set. Match.
Quarterback Brock Purdy had a fantastic outing, completing 20 of 21 passes for 283 yards, one touchdown, and no interceptions. His favorite target was Brandon Aiyuk, who recorded an impressive 148 receiving yards on 6 targets. 129 air yards (79%).
Aiyuk might be my favorite 49ers to be invested in for the rest of season. Over his three healthy games he owns a 27% Target share and league-high 52% air yards share. Whenever San Fran is going downfield, it’s going to Aiyuk.
Derek Carr constantly kept missing Chris Olave, limiting him to one catch for 4 yards on 6 targets. 146 air yards converted into nothing. Woof. Are we sure that Carr is a good match for Olave a month in?
This was a concern I had entering the year. However, for the short-term would view Olave as a buy-low, as he checks off the boxes of a buy-low air yards WR. One of just 6 WRs with 500-plus air yards this season.
Olave ($6,900 on DraftKings) and Shaheed ($3,800) are intriguing buy-low DFS options as well for the upcoming Week 5 slate.
Patriots and Texans up next, both who are extremely thin at cornerback.
Jaylen Waddle recorded 4 receptions for 46 yards on 5 targets.
Not many defenses have the personnel to limit the Dolphins offense, so you must buy low on some of these poor performances.
The Giants (off a short week at home), Panthers and Eagles are the next three matchups. Look for the Dolphins offense to get right back on track.
Hill and Achane are probably untouchable to acquire, so Waddle remains the priority target. Even after a slow start to the year, he still ranks 15th in yards per route run.
Trevor Lawrence had an okay day, amassing 207 passing yards on 23 completions. He threw one touchdown pass to Calvin Ridley. Ridley only caught two passes including the 30-yard touchdown (7% Target share). The fact that he has been this little involved and disappointing the last three weeks (w/o Zay Jones last two weeks) makes Week 1 look like a mirage. He just hasn’t looked anything like that. With Jones coming back it adds another layer of complexion in the target pecking order.
Last week, I recommended that you sell high on Kirk and buy low on Ridley. Both guys were productive in Week 4. So I think I am going to continue my stance of buying low on Ridley. Not because I think he is a locked-and-loaded WR1 rest of season, but because I think he’s “safer” option to chase with Jones returning. Kirk has undoubtedly benefitted the most from Jones’ absence in the last two and half weeks. And when Jones returns, it could spell trouble for Kirk. Sell high especially ahead of a matchup versus the Bills who have been tough on slot WRs this season. They just held Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle in check in Week 4. Meanwhile, Ridley should see more favorable looks on the outside as the Bills defense just lost cornerback, Tre’Davious White, with a season-ending torn ACL injury.
Zay Flowers was quiet in a bad matchup – 3 for 56 on 4 targets. Not worried. Buy low opportunity. Played 98% of the snaps. 100% route participation. Saw nearly half the team’s air yards (47%) and a solid 22% Target share with the Ravens not forced to push the game script against a rookie QB.
Easy game. 30% Target share through the first month of the season. $5.5K on DraftKings in Week 5. Wheels are up.
On the Browns’ side, the offense was led by quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson with Deshaun Watson out. DTR completed just 19 out of 36 passes for 121 yards, zero TDs.
David Njoku was his primary target, securing 6 receptions for 46 yards (7 targets , 21% Target share). Considering it was new QB – not any usage change – that influenced Njoku’s best game to date, best not to read too much into it. Leave him on waivers or drop him.
No Watson killed the fantasy value of Amari Cooper (1 catch, 6 targets) and Elijah Moore (2 for 20, 4 targets). Buy Cooper after the down game with Watson coming back healthy after the bye week.
On the year, Cooper ranks 6th in air yards share.
Deebo Samuel…no catches or targets. Came in banged up. And when one 49ers is hurt/limited all the others FEAST. Well in this case, just two. George Kittle. 1 for 9 despite running a route on all but one of Purdy’s dropbacks.
Woof. Just no need for Samuel/Kittle. Buy low targets.
They will be needed next week versus Dallas. Samuel still played 87% of the snaps with an elite 87% routes run rate.
The Buccaneers’ offensive attack primarily revolved around quarterback Baker Mayfield, who was efficient with 25 completions out of 32 attempts for 246 yards and three touchdowns. Mayfield spread the ball effectively among his targets, with Chris Godwin being his favorite, securing 8 receptions for 114 yards. Deven Thompkins and Mike Evans also contributed significantly with 4 catches for 45 yards and 3 catches for 40 yards, respectively. Evans left early with a hamstring injury. Thompkins did not play the most snaps after Evans injury. Trey Palmer (75% snap share) ran a route on nearly 80% of the dropbacks. Thompkins was around 61%.
Godwin blew up with Evans out, and Mayfield has shown he can support at least one fantasy WR every single week. Buy Godwin now, with the TD regression calling his name. Only receiver this year with 7-plus red-zone targets and zero TDs.
Nobody else did much in the passing game as Kirk only threw 19 times. Buy low on guys like Jordan Addison, T.J. Hockenson etc.
Addison still ran a route on 73% of the dropbacks, despite dropping the goose egg on 1 target. Buy low.
The Chiefs and the Bears up next. I’m sure he will see plenty of usage.
CJ Stroud, with ANOTHER impressive outing. Stroud completed 16 out of 30 passes for an impressive 306 yards and two touchdowns. His primary target was Nico Collins, who had a standout performance with 7 receptions for 168 yards and two touchdowns (9 targets, 33% Target share).
After it was Tank Dell WR1 szn all week, Collins reclaimed the throne.
Through four weeks, Collins ranks third in receiving EPA and 1st in yards after the catch.
All in all, you should you WANT and LIKE both guys. Stroud is good enough to support multiple fantasy weapons. Dell’s probably a nice buy low after a dud (one catch for 16 yards, 3 targets). The rookie also ran the most routes (tied with Robert Woods, who also drew 6 targets) as he has done the past three weeks.
With Collins likely catching tight coverage from A.J. Terrell and Marshon Lattimore over the next two weeks – they also rank second in fewest yards after the catch allowed – we could easily see things shift back toward Dell. Just $4,800 on DraftKings this week.
As for the KC WRs…more nonsense and rotating. However, once again, Rashee Rice stood out above the rest. 17% Target share (5 targets) led all non-Travis Kelce receivers. 3 targets in the red zone where he has been targeted frequently all season. 6 red-zone targets lead all Chiefs this season.
And although his routes are not where we want them to be, he is getting targets when he plays. 32% target rate per route run is the epitome of the flame emoji. More likely his role increases as the season progresses.
Rice is second on the team with a 14% Target share through four games. 2nd in catches (13).
After Week 1, I thought I was being too reactive thinking Rice over Skyy Moore rest of season. Now, it’s obvious that Moore is not going to hit. 14% target rate per route run. Ran fewer routes than both Justin Watson and Maquez Valdes-Scantling in Week 4.
Players to Sell
DJ Moore had a standout game for the Bears, hauling in all 8 of his 9 targets (28% Target share) for 131 yards and a touchdown, showcasing his big-play ability.
But despite an awesome effort from the Bears offense, they still lost. Woof. The fumble six was a killer. Chicago plays the Commanders Thursday night, then Vikings. If the Bears start 0-5, might be the door for their head coach.
We saw last year once this offense got going, they gained momentum. Use that as your selling point.
So, for now, I am mostly holding my Bears skill players or selling for max ROI. Again, the Broncos are probably the worst defense in the NFL. We have seen teams come crashing back to Earth the following week after beating up on Denver’s defense. Although in an interesting scheduling quirk, the first three teams to face Denver played the Bills the week after, going 0-3 versus the spread (2-1 toward the over) with an average margin of loss by 31 points.
In the passing game, Terry McLaurin was Howell’s primary target, receiving 10 targets and making 8 receptions for 86 yards (26% Target share).
Curtis Samuel and Jahan Dotson also played significant roles in the passing attack, with Samuel making 7 receptions (8 targets) and Dotson adding 4 receptions and a touchdown (9 targets, 23% Target share). Dotson saw a whopping four red-zone targets catching two including the TD.
Through four weeks – McLaurin/Dotson are tied with a 19% team Target share. For that reason, I view TMC as a sell high. Again, like DJ Moore, McLaurin will finish the year as a fantasy WR2. He does every year. So, if you can get a bit more after a strong game, I’d cash out.
Christian Watson only ran a route on 48% of the dropbacks, as he was on a snap count. However, he was targeted on 20% of his routes (4) and he caught two for 25 yards including a wide-open TD at the goal line.
However, this was after Doubs got tackled inside the 5-yard line after A.J. Dillon was stuffed (shocked).
His routes will increase (like Jones) in Week 5, making him somebody who’s value could increase. However, I think I am in position where I’d like to sell high on Watson after he scored. Because his path to being the No. 1 WR has changed drastically in my opinion. Doubs, Jayden Reed and Musgrave have all shown they can earn targets and be big parts of the Packers offense. If someone is valuing Watson as high as his Round 4 draft capital was during draft season, I’d capitalize.
And although I have been low on Doubs, I might be changing my tune slightly after another strong outing. It’s clear that he and Jordan Love have a connection, and that didn’t change in Week 4 with Watson back in the starting lineup. Doubs was viewed as a candidate that could lead the Packers in catches this season, and so far, he is coming through on the lofty expectations. In PPR leagues, I think he’s another player to seek in trade with his trade value likely not matching his production thus far.
Watson’s return might make him expendable despite how productive he has been. Guy has 12-plus targets in back-to-back games. 26.5% target rate per route run.
George Pickens led the team with 7 targets (two from Trubisky) but caught just 3 for 25. Pat Freiermuth also left with a hamstring injury. The three backups at tight end all split routes and snaps behind him.
This offense is in rough shape. They have the Ravens and their bye week up the next two weeks.
Pickens is the only guy anybody can start just based on volume, but that could go away with the return of Diontae Johnson in a few weeks. And until this team fires Matt Canada, this offense is sunk. Have to imagine it might be the final showing we get of him till the bye week.
Last year with Mitchell Trubisky, Pickens faced the Ravens at home, catching three balls for 78 yards on three targets. Pittsburgh lost that game outright 16-14 with the Ravens starting Tyler Huntley.
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