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Players to Sell
Josh Jacobs carried the load on the ground with 25 rushing attempts, gaining 77 yards. While he didn’t find the end zone, his hard-nosed running style kept the offense moving. Alas, 7 red zone carries resulted in zero TDs. Jacobs ranks 5th in red zone carries but has just two RZ TDs (two TDs all together).
Davante Adams (WR): 91%
Jakobi Meyers (WR): 91%
Michael Mayer (TE): 81%
Josh Jacobs (RB): 81%
Jimmy Garoppolo (QB): 61%
Brian Hoyer (QB): 39%
Austin Hooper (TE): 34%
Tre Tucker (WR): 31%
Jakob Johnson (FB): 24%
Ameer Abdullah (RB): 13%
Hunter Renfrow (WR): 10%— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) October 16, 2023
Even if Jacobs struggles versus an underrated Bears run defense he should be able to be effective as a receiver.
However, from a bigger picture, I think Jacobs is a sharp sell high.
As alluded to, the Bears have an underrated run defense. The Lions have an elite run defense. Those are the next two matchups for Jacobs, who has been supremely underwhelming this season. Dead last in fantasy points scored above expectation. 2.9 yards per carry on the year.
Raheem Mostert exhibited his explosiveness with 17 carries for 115 yards, averaging an impressive 6.8 yards per carry, and reaching the end zone twice. Caught all 3 targets with another receiving TD while playing 61% of the snaps.
In addition to Mostert’s contribution, Chris Brooks added 28 yards on 6 carries, while Salvon Ahmed provided 23 yards on 6 carries (36% snap share), including a rushing touchdown. Ahmed and Mostert split their routes 50/50.
Brooks came in during garbage time.
Still want to sell high on Mostert. He has 11 TDs this season. But he’s 31 years old and has a long injury track record. Also, both Jeff Wilson Jr. and De’Von Achane will be returning to the lineup in the coming weeks. Considering how excellent Mostert has been, you can get whatever you want for him. Sell high.
Zack Moss and Jonathan Taylor shared rushing duties. Moss led the way with 7 carries for 21 yards, finding the end zone with a touchdown run. Taylor recorded 8 carries but was held to 19 yards. Taylor was involved in the passing game as well, catching 5 passes for 46 yards. His ability to contribute as a receiver adds versatility to the Colts’ offense (6 targets). Moss was another key contributor, catching 6 passes for 38 yards, helping move the chains and providing an additional dimension to the offense (7 targets). Moss also ran more routes than JT. Snaps are ticking up for JT, but I don’t think we are going to see Moss disappear from the offense anytime soon. Was on the sell JT train last week, and I am sticking to my guns with two tough matchups coming up.
Calvin Ridley was heavily involved with 8 targets and 4 receptions for 30 yards (29% Target share, 100 air yards). But again, he underwhelmed in the final box score.
As we get farther and farther away from Ridley’s Week 1 boom, reality is starting to set in. Since Week 2, his 18% Target share ranks third on the team. Ranks 50th among all WRs.
Every week it’s so hard to project the Jaguars WRs because they are all so matchup based. I still think selling high on Kirk is a sharp move, as is selling on Ridley. It’s not like this offense is absolutely lighting up the box scores, and it’s so crowded that makes it tough to trust one guy not-named Kirk. And even his production might be boosted since the Zay Jones injury.
All in all, if you can cash out for a strong return, I think your avoiding potential headaches down the road. But in full transparency, if you can’t get any worthwhile returns, they remain holds.
Star running back Alvin Kamara led the ground attack with 19 carries for 68 yards while playing 80% of the snaps. While Kamara didn’t find the end zone in this matchup, his versatility was evident as he contributed in both the rushing and passing game. Kendre Miller only earned 2 carries. AK41 was a straight bell cow.
While his usage remains great – league high 25 touches per game – I am concerned about this being sustainable in the long term with Jamaal Williams‘ potential return. Also don’t love the upcoming schedule or this Saints offense in general.
Derek Carr‘s primary target was Chris Olave, who was targeted 10 times and secured 7 receptions for 96 yards, averaging 13.7 yards per catch. However just a 22% Target share with 157 air yards.
Through 6 games, Olave has a 25% Target share. It’s just rinse and repeat about how many times Carr misses Olave deep on his throws. Therefore, Olave remains a sell for me. He has 4 red-zone targets through 6 games. 1 TD.
James Cook led the rushing attack with 14 carries, gaining 71 yards at an average of 5.1 yards per carry. He did not score a touchdown, and his longest run was 14 yards.
Latavius Murray carried the ball 12 times, accumulating 45 yards with an average of 3.8 yards per carry. Like Cook, he didn’t score a touchdown and had a long run of 12 yards. Cook narrowly edged out Murray in routes run, but the usage overall was essentially a 50/50 split. In fact Murray was highly involved during the beginning of the game – drawing the start and taking the first team carry.
He was also highly involved in the red zone with 4 red-zone carries – as he has done all season.
Each player played 49% of the snaps as Damien Harris left the game with a neck injury on his lone carry.
With Harris sidelined, Murray has a clear path to base work, targets and priority touches in the red zone for Buffalo. Not great for Cook, who was not targeted in this game.
Derrick Henry was the standout player in the rushing attack, amassing 97 yards on just 12 carries, averaging an impressive 8.1 yards per attempt with a massive 63-yard run on a direct snap. He also found the end zone. Henry also chipped in with 2 receptions, gaining 16 yards.
Tyjae Spears, with 15 yards on 4 carries, added depth to the rushing game. He also caught one pass for 48 yards.
And yet again, he out-snapped Henry (56% vs 53%). His role is not going away, and he needs to be held on through the bye weeks. Elite upside if Henry were to suffer an injury/get traded.
In the receiving game, Terry McLaurin was the primary target, receiving 11 targets and catching 6 passes for 81 yards, showcasing his ability to move the chains and create explosive plays. The gameplan was built around targeting TMC at all costs with him posting a 52% Target share.
Considering this has not been nearly what the Commanders have done at any point this season, I’d sell high.
In the receiving game, Drake London emerged as the primary target, receiving 12 targets (27%) and catching 9 passes for an impressive 125 yards, showcasing his ability to create separation and make big plays. After a Week 1 dud, London has been a target hog with a team-high 23% Target share.
Still, I can’t help but view him as a sell-high. Desmond Ridder notoriously plays worse on the road than at home, and that has trickled into London’s splits. On the road this year, he has not exceeded 32 yards or 3 catches.
Quarterback Bryce Young‘s primary target was Adam Thielen, who was targeted an impressive 13 times. Thielen hauled in 11 receptions for 115 yards and found the end zone once, confirming his role as the Panthers’ top receiver (37% Target share).
He is the WR3 in PPR (pending MNF). I’d cash out now. Remember, the Panthers have been very vocal about adding another WR before the trade deadline.
Alexander Mattison had 18 carries but was limited to 44 yards, averaging just 2.4 yards per carry. Despite not finding the end zone, Mattison’s volume of carries allowed the Vikings to maintain possession and control the clock. Mattison dominated the backfield with a 79% snap share.
Additionally, Mattison was involved in the passing game, catching 4 passes for 28 yards on a whopping 7 targets. Owned all the routes. 23% Target share.
Cam Akers had just one carry and one target. Lowest snap share since joining the Vikings. Still, I would hold him.
Still, Mattison’s inefficient play as a rusher as me concerned about his longevity with job. The 49ers are up next as well. Woof. The second-most fantasy points scored under expectation this season.
I also do not think Mattison’s boost as a receiver is a role change. Credit the to Vikings for exposing the Bears’ weakness against the RBs in the passing game coming in with their game plan.
And don’t just take my word for it. Just check the post-game press conference comments from Vikings fans that follow the team closer than I do. They want Mattison straight up benched.
Running back D’Onta Foreman led the ground attack with 15 carries, gaining 65 yards at an average of 4.3 yards per carry. While he didn’t find the end zone, Foreman was solid as the RB1 without Khalil Herbert or Roschon Johnson. 1 target for 2 yards (61% snap share while running a route on 38% of dropbacks).
Newly acquired running back Darrynton Evans (36% snap share) contributed with 9 carries for 32 yards, while backup quarterback Tyson Bagent managed 2 carries, one of which resulted in a rushing touchdown. Evans got the first carry in the Bears backfield, but Foreman started.
This likely forecasts a dreaded committee when Roshon Johnson returns to the lineup after he comes back from the concussion. Sell high for those looking at RJ to be an all-purpose bell cow.
George Pickens was the standout receiver for the Steelers, targeted 10 times (32% Target share). He made 6 receptions for an impressive 130 yards, averaging 21.7 yards per catch, and scored a touchdown on a long 41-yard pass.
Allen Robinson made 5 receptions for 29 yards (9 targets) showcasing his reliability as a possession receiver.
This team won because of their defense – a big reason why they have won any games this year. Much needed bye week is coming up where they can get healthier and work on a new offensive strategy. Whispers…fire Matt Canada.
Still, consider me pessimistic. If able, I would sell high on Pickens. He has made a lot of production ripping off big plays and his Target share can only go down with the eventual returns of Diontae Johnson and Pat Freiermuth.
Johnson is eyeing a Week 7 return as is Pat Freiermuth.
Pickens’ Target share has been 26% through 5 games with a top-10 air yards share (42%). I think Pickens is a great talent, but the offense and his role – having to rely some heavily on contested sideline catches – are just not conducive to sustained fantasy production.
In the rushing department, Jerome Ford led the charge with 17 carries for 84 yards, averaging 4.9 yards per carry. Ford also caught both of his targets for 7 yards. Played 50% of the snaps while splitting routes with Kareem Hunt 50/50.
Hunt also contributed significantly with 12 carries for 47 yards and a touchdown, showcasing his versatility. Hunt also started the game and earned 3 carries inside the red zone to Ford’s zero.
Turning into a more 50/50 spit than Ford being the dominant force despite his strong box score. Head coach Kevin Stefanski talked about how they wanted to get Hunt ‘going’ post-game as he gets back into football shape.
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