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Players to Sell
Nobody is more hot or cold than the Titans. One week they can’t do anything, the next they just dominate. Derrick Henry got rolling with 122 yards on 22 carries with 1 long rushing TD (1 target, 59% snap share). Also threw a TD at the goal line. Tyjae Spears carried the ball 5 times for 40 yards while adding three catches on 4 targets – but he also still played 53% of the snaps. Spears also ran more routes per usual.
This one is too easy. Sell high on Henry. Again, as I mentioned at the top. This team is super-hot/cold. Sell high while the getting is good. Be afraid of a fierce Colts defensive line in Week 5 on the road. Don’t get things confused. The Titans offensive line is still bad. Bad Ols don’t travel.
And note that Henry’s usage is still nowhere near where it was last season with Spears threating his total workload. Spears is part of the offensive game plan every week.
DJ Moore had a standout game for the Bears, hauling in all 8 of his 9 targets (28% target share) for 131 yards and a touchdown, showcasing his big-play ability.
But despite an awesome effort from the Bears offense, they still lost. Woof. The fumble six was a killer. Chicago plays the Commanders Thursday night, then Vikings. If the Bears start 0-5, might be the door for their head coach.
We saw last year once this offense got going, they gained momentum. Use that as your selling point.
So, for now, I am mostly holding my Bears skill players or selling for max ROI. Again, the Broncos are probably the worst defense in the NFL. We have seen teams come crashing back to Earth the following week after beating up on Denver’s defense. Although in an interesting scheduling quirk, the first three teams to face Denver played the Bills the week after, going 0-3 versus the spread (2-1 toward the over) with an average margin of loss by 31 points.
In the passing game, Terry McLaurin was Howell’s primary target, receiving 10 targets and making 8 receptions for 86 yards (26% target share).
Curtis Samuel and Jahan Dotson also played significant roles in the passing attack, with Samuel making 7 receptions (8 targets) and Dotson adding 4 receptions and a touchdown (9 targets, 23% target share). Dotson saw a whopping four red-zone targets catching two including the TD.
Through four weeks – McLaurin/Dotson are tied with a 19% team target share. For that reason, I view TMC as a sell high. Again, like DJ Moore, McLaurin will finish the year as a fantasy WR2. He does every year. So, if you can get a bit more after a strong game, I’d cash out.
The New Orleans Saints took a different approach with their backfield than Tampa Bay, relying heavily on Alvin Kamara in both the running and passing game in his first game back from the suspension. Kamara had a whopping 14 targets, leading to an impressive 13 receptions albeit for 33 yards, showcasing his versatility as a dual threat running back. 70% route participation. 75% snap share. 37% target share.
However, the fact that the Saints offense struggled mightily does not suggest to me that this exact usage is what we will see every week from New Orleans’ offense. This offense isn’t good right now, and Kamara said as much after the game. “It’s been two years since we had that offense that was rolling.” Woof.
Christian Watson only ran a route on 48% of the dropbacks, as he was on a snap count. However, he was targeted on 20% of his routes (4) and he caught two for 25 yards including a wide-open TD at the goal line.
However, this was after Doubs got tackled inside the 5-yard line after A.J. Dillon was stuffed (shocked).
His routes will increase (like Jones) in Week 5, making him somebody who’s value could increase. However, I think I am in position where I’d like to sell high on Watson after he scored. Because his path to being the No. 1 WR has changed drastically in my opinion. Doubs, Jayden Reed and Musgrave have all shown they can earn targets and be big parts of the Packers offense. If someone is valuing Watson as high as his Round 4 draft capital was during draft season, I’d capitalize.
And although I have been low on Doubs, I might be changing my tune slightly after another strong outing. It’s clear that he and Jordan Love have a connection, and that didn’t change in Week 4 with Watson back in the starting lineup. Doubs was viewed as a candidate that could lead the Packers in catches this season, and so far, he is coming through on the lofty expectations. In PPR leagues, I think he’s another player to seek in trade with his trade value likely not matching his production thus far.
Watson’s return might make him expendable despite how productive he has been. Guy has 12-plus targets in back-to-back games. 26.5% target rate per route run.
In the rushing department, Dameon Pierce led the way with 24 carries for 81 yards, showcasing his ability to grind out tough yardage. 2 targets and one catch for 27 yards. Played a season-high 59% of the snaps. Although the route participation stayed the same (36%).
Devin Singletary added 7 carries for 25 yards and threw a TD to Schultz. Five carries came in the 4th quarter. As this team gets healthier, specifically the OL, this offense can get even better. That makes all offensive pieces buys on this roster.
In the running game, Chuba Hubbard and Miles Sanders split carries. Hubbard carried the ball 14 times for 41 yards, while Sanders contributed 19 yards on 13 carries. Sanders was questionable entering the game, so I’d have to imagine why there was such a stark split versus the first three weeks. 1st half Sanders had 7 carries for 9 yards.
But Hubbard was very much involved. 2 targets to Sanders’ 3 targets while also running more routes. Also earned 5 red zone carries to Sanders’ 2.
Hubbard also out-snapped Sanders 54% to 43%. Can’t really do much with Sanders given his injury and bad game top try and move him (do it if you can), aside from trying to target Hubbard either off waivers or through trade. Sanders’ receiving usage has been buoying his production which could go away in favor Hubbard. That’s a problem for Sanders, who ranks dead last in rushing success rate this season (31.5%).
Alexander Mattison was the workhorse in the Vikings’ backfield, amassing 95 rushing yards on 17 carries. Cam Akers‘ debut did little to impact him on the surface, as the former Ram carried the ball just 5 times…but 40 yards. 8 yards per carry. Oh. That’s new. And it was TRUE 8 yards per carry. Rushes of 6, 8, 9, 7 and 10.
And Akers – who has been a total zero in the passing game throughout his career – sees two targets to Mattison’s one in his first game as a Viking. Saw 7 routes to Mattison’s 10.
Sell high. Akers’ 7 touches and 29% snap share was already higher than any snap rate or workload Ty Chandler had through three games. Mattison’s 69% snap share was a season low.
Pierre Strong was the standout performer with 5 carries for 49 yards, averaging an impressive 9.8 yards per carry. Although it came all in garbage time for a second straight game. Jerome Ford started but was underwhelming with 9 for 26, but he caught 5 passes on 6 targets. Kareem Hunt also tallied 5 carries, but was not targeted.
Bye week, and then the 49ers up next in Week 6. Not great for Ford. Sell high. Ranks second to last in the NFL in rushing success rate (34%) and total rushing EPA this season. So, although I’ll acknowledge his snaps and receiving usage is encouraging the schedule and Hunt’s potential to take larger chunk concern me long term. Note that in the first half it was just 6 to 4 carries between Ford and Hunt.
George Pickens led the team with 7 targets (two from Trubisky) but caught just 3 for 25. Pat Freiermuth also left with a hamstring injury. The three backups at tight end all split routes and snaps behind him.
This offense is in rough shape. They have the Ravens and their bye week up the next two weeks.
Pickens is the only guy anybody can start just based on volume, but that could go away with the return of Diontae Johnson in a few weeks. And until this team fires Matt Canada, this offense is sunk. Have to imagine it might be the final showing we get of him till the bye week.
Last year with Mitchell Trubisky, Pickens faced the Ravens at home, catching three balls for 78 yards on three targets. Pittsburgh lost that game outright 16-14 with the Ravens starting Tyler Huntley.
In the rushing department, Khalil Herbert led the Bears’ ground attack with 18 carries for 103 yards and a touchdown. 78% snap share. YLTSI.
Roschon Johnson‘s time will have to wait seems like. 5 carries for 13 yards. 1 target. Herbert had 5 targets, catching four for 19 yards. Just a 22% snap share.
And of course, they finally use Herbert the week I boldly predict that RJ takes a bigger role. That’s fantasy football for you.
We saw last year once this offense got going, they gained momentum. Use that as your selling point.
So, for now, I am mostly holding my Bears skill players or selling for max ROI. Again, the Broncos are probably the worst defense in the NFL. We have seen teams come crashing back to Earth the following week after beating up on Denver’s defense. Although in an interesting scheduling quirk, the first three teams to face Denver played the Bills the week after, going 0-3 versus the spread (2-1 toward the over) with an average margin of loss by 31 points.
In the passing game, Jonnu Smith was Ridder’s top target…. receiving 6 passes for 95 yards (6 targets). Wish I could say this was a fluke, but he’s been involved in the offense for the last three games (20% target share) Woof.
Kyle Pitts…2 for 21. And it’s not a usage issue because Pitts is still running a full allotment of routes as a receiver. The only “change” is improved QB play, which doesn’t seem likely to be coming anytime soon. Pitts must hit on a deep ball (39% team-leading air yards share this season) to actually pay off.
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