Welcome back to your weekly injury report, brought to you by FantasyPros and SportsMedAnalytics! We know what you’re here for, so we’ll dive right in.
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Week 1 Fantasy Football Injury Report
Dealing with a moderate severity quad strain. Given his practice progression, data favors him playing without much of a performance dip. However, this does carry a moderately elevated re-aggravation risk (~15%), so it wouldn’t be surprising to see them limit his workload if the score is not that close towards the end.
Fully playing and off the injury report after a brief stint on it strongly suggests a mild low ankle sprain. In our data, these don’t show any significant impact on WR production. They do carry mild re-injury risk, but overall that number is quite low (~5%).
TBD. Lean towards Brown playing, although this one will likely come down to him testing it pre-game. Playing Week 1 carries an elevated re-injury risk (~20% higher than baseline) and a moderate performance impact (~15%). If he avoids any re-injury, expect full strength By ~Week 2-3.
Data favors Ertz playing but with a significant performance hit. Returning from an ACL this fast over age 30 tends to drop explosiveness, and given his ~50th percentile pre-injury athletic metrics, machine learning predicts a down year for Ertz.
Cordarrelle Patterson (RB – ATL)
TBD. Lean towards playing. 4 weeks removed from a quad strain and now having logged 3 consecutive “limited” practices, the SMA algorithm rates him a 2/3 chance of suiting up. Data suggests low performance impact but moderate re-injury risk, so don’t be surprised if touches are limited.
Out for Week 1 with a hamstring strain. Progression so far suggests he would most likely be active Week 2, although with a mild explosiveness dip (~10%) and moderate (~15%) re-injury risk.
TBD. Data suggests likely playing. Practice progression is atypical but suggests a low ankle issue. These don’t tend to cause significant performance dips and carry relatively low re-injury risks.
Very low concern here. 6 weeks removed from a low grade calf strain means that he does have some re-injury risk, but it is relatively low (<10%). Low performance impact is generally seen on pocket QBs, so we’d start Burrow with confidence.
TBD. Data rates Jeudy 60% chance of playing. If active, he does so with relatively high re-injury risk (~20-25%) and projects to have a moderate (~15%) explosiveness dip. By Week 2 – if he avoids re-injury – our data projects a 90+% player.
TBD. Lean towards playing. Data suggests mild performance impact but moderate re-injury risk.
Out Week 1. Week-to-week designation suggests moderate severity hamstring. Week 2 will likely be a game-time decision pending practice progression.
TBD. Trending towards playing, although he would be beating average data by 1 week. If active, we’d consider him at elevated risk for fumbling given likely forearm weakness this early after fracture surgery.
Data slightly favors Week 2 return (~65%), although it’s certainly not guaranteed. TEs tend to see low performance impact and re-injury risks upon return.
IR decision pending today. Data favors Week 3-4 return, with IR making him a statistical outlier. Will carry elevated re-injury risk (~20%) through Week 8.
Low concern. Data projects Waddle playing at full strength with low re-injury risk.
Listed as questionable but hasn’t been practicing. Likely out Week 1, with data favoring return Week 2 pending practice progression.
TBD. Lean towards playing. Late-week additions to injury report = poor outlook in the data, but comments suggest mild severity. If active, expect low performance impact, but due to his extensive soft tissue history, he is a very high injury risk for the rest of the year.
Factoring in his age, pre-injury athletic metrics (95th percentile), high draft capital, and injury timing, the SMA machine learning algorithm projects 85% explosiveness for Week 1. However, young RBs off of knee surgery average 3-4 games to ramp up their touches, and the Dalvin Cook signing makes a slow progression for Hall more likely. We therefore anticipate flashes of pre-injury Hall, but ~50% of his normal workload.
Our actions and our analysis differ in this rare exception. Williams had a massive multi-ligament knee surgery, which tends to drop RB explosiveness by ~20% even months into their return. Williams has been far ahead of schedule – given his timeline and pre-season usage, our algorithm projects Williams at 85% explosiveness and a 60% workload for Weeks 1-3. However, Sean Payton’s comments suggest that his ramp up will be accelerated, and we therefore are starting Javonte even on a stacked dynasty roster Week 1. The safer option is certainly to wait, so this is a rare case of trusting our gut over our data. Because of that difference, we think you deserve both analyses.
Popped up mid-week with a groin injury, which suggests some tightness or re-aggravation of his prior groin issue from training camp. While he’s expected to play without restriction Week 1 and with low performance impact, he will carry an elevated (~15-20%) injury risk over the next 6 weeks.
TBD. Lean towards playing. While performance impact tends to be relatively low, Kittle’s history in combination with this most recent injury (which itself is actually a re-aggravation of a training camp injury) makes him a very high (~25%) risk player the rest of the season. Would have little hesitation to start him if active each week, but may try to move him in season-long formats.
Likely playing despite a moderate severity knee sprain sustained during training camp. Re-injury risk is low, but data projects a mild (~<10%) production hit.
Likely playing through a turf toe injury. Video of his cuts looked smooth from this week, which confirms the mild severity of the initial injury. Weeks 1 and 2 project to have a mild (~10%) explosiveness hit, with return to full strength by Week 3.
And that’s a wrap for now. As always, don’t forget to check sportsmedanalytics.com for the rest of your NFL and fantasy football injury updates!
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