Welcome back to your weekly injury report, brought to you by FantasyPros and SportsMedAnalytics! We know what you’re here for, so we’ll dive right in.
If you need more updates, check sportsmedanalytics.com or hit us up on Twitter/X @SportMDAnalysis and @FantasyPros.
- Waiver Wire Advice
- Weekly Fantasy Football Expert Rankings
- Fantasy Football Start/Sit Advice
- Fantasy Football Trade Tools
Week 1 Fantasy Football Injury Report
Dealing with a moderate severity quad strain. Given his practice progression, data favors him playing without much of a performance dip. However, this does carry a moderately elevated re-aggravation risk (~15%), so it wouldn’t be surprising to see them limit his workload if the score is not that close towards the end.
Fully playing and off the injury report after a brief stint on it strongly suggests a mild low ankle sprain. In our data, these don’t show any significant impact on WR production. They do carry mild re-injury risk, but overall that number is quite low (~5%).
TBD. Lean towards Brown playing, although this one will likely come down to him testing it pre-game. Playing Week 1 carries an elevated re-injury risk (~20% higher than baseline) and a moderate performance impact (~15%). If he avoids any re-injury, expect full strength By ~Week 2-3.
Data favors Ertz playing but with a significant performance hit. Returning from an ACL this fast over age 30 tends to drop explosiveness, and given his ~50th percentile pre-injury athletic metrics, machine learning predicts a down year for Ertz.
Cordarrelle Patterson (RB – ATL)
TBD. Lean towards playing. 4 weeks removed from a quad strain and now having logged 3 consecutive “limited” practices, the SMA algorithm rates him a 2/3 chance of suiting up. Data suggests low performance impact but moderate re-injury risk, so don’t be surprised if touches are limited.
Out for Week 1 with a hamstring strain. Progression so far suggests he would most likely be active Week 2, although with a mild explosiveness dip (~10%) and moderate (~15%) re-injury risk.
TBD. Data suggests likely playing. Practice progression is atypical but suggests a low ankle issue. These don’t tend to cause significant performance dips and carry relatively low re-injury risks.
Very low concern here. 6 weeks removed from a low grade calf strain means that he does have some re-injury risk, but it is relatively low (<10%). Low performance impact is generally seen on pocket QBs, so we’d start Burrow with confidence.
TBD. Data rates Jeudy 60% chance of playing. If active, he does so with relatively high re-injury risk (~20-25%) and projects to have a moderate (~15%) explosiveness dip. By Week 2 – if he avoids re-injury – our data projects a 90+% player.
TBD. Lean towards playing. Data suggests mild performance impact but moderate re-injury risk.
Out Week 1. Week-to-week designation suggests moderate severity hamstring. Week 2 will likely be a game-time decision pending practice progression.
TBD. Trending towards playing, although he would be beating average data by 1 week. If active, we’d consider him at elevated risk for fumbling given likely forearm weakness this early after fracture surgery.
Data slightly favors Week 2 return (~65%), although it’s certainly not guaranteed. TEs tend to see low performance impact and re-injury risks upon return.
IR decision pending today. Data favors Week 3-4 return, with IR making him a statistical outlier. Will carry elevated re-injury risk (~20%) through Week 8.
Low concern. Data projects Waddle playing at full strength with low re-injury risk.
Listed as questionable but hasn’t been practicing. Likely out Week 1, with data favoring return Week 2 pending practice progression.
TBD. Lean towards playing. Late-week additions to injury report = poor outlook in the data, but comments suggest mild severity. If active, expect low performance impact, but due to his extensive soft tissue history, he is a very high injury risk for the rest of the year.
Factoring in his age, pre-injury athletic metrics (95th percentile), high draft capital, and injury timing, the SMA machine learning algorithm projects 85% explosiveness for Week 1. However, young RBs off of knee surgery average 3-4 games to ramp up their touches, and the Dalvin Cook signing makes a slow progression for Hall more likely. We therefore anticipate flashes of pre-injury Hall, but ~50% of his normal workload.
Our actions and our analysis differ in this rare exception. Williams had a massive multi-ligament knee surgery, which tends to drop RB explosiveness by ~20% even months into their return. Williams has been far ahead of schedule – given his timeline and pre-season usage, our algorithm projects Williams at 85% explosiveness and a 60% workload for Weeks 1-3. However, Sean Payton’s comments suggest that his ramp up will be accelerated, and we therefore are starting Javonte even on a stacked dynasty roster Week 1. The safer option is certainly to wait, so this is a rare case of trusting our gut over our data. Because of that difference, we think you deserve both analyses.
Popped up mid-week with a groin injury, which suggests some tightness or re-aggravation of his prior groin issue from training camp. While he’s expected to play without restriction Week 1 and with low performance impact, he will carry an elevated (~15-20%) injury risk over the next 6 weeks.
TBD. Lean towards playing. While performance impact tends to be relatively low, Kittle’s history in combination with this most recent injury (which itself is actually a re-aggravation of a training camp injury) makes him a very high (~25%) risk player the rest of the season. Would have little hesitation to start him if active each week, but may try to move him in season-long formats.
Likely playing despite a moderate severity knee sprain sustained during training camp. Re-injury risk is low, but data projects a mild (~<10%) production hit.
Likely playing through a turf toe injury. Video of his cuts looked smooth from this week, which confirms the mild severity of the initial injury. Weeks 1 and 2 project to have a mild (~10%) explosiveness hit, with return to full strength by Week 3.
And that’s a wrap for now. As always, don’t forget to check sportsmedanalytics.com for the rest of your NFL and fantasy football injury updates!
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio
