Every week, I’ll be writing a comprehensive primer on every NFL matchup and all of the relevant players, matchups, pace and playcalling notes, and injuries. It covers everything you need to know when setting your lineups. But since that article is massive and requires a full pot of coffee, we’re also going to offer these more focused matchup overviews to help you prepare for Thursday Night Football.
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Thursday Night Football Primer & Start/Sit Advice
Minnesota Vikings vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Pace and playcalling notes
- We’ll see if this trend continues, but after one game, the Vikings ranked 16th in neutral pace. Last year, they were fifth in this category. Despite their slower pace, Minnesota remained pass-centric, ranking third in neutral passing rate.
- Philly walks away from Week 1, sitting at third in neutral pace and 14th in neutral passing rate. Neither is a surprising figure.
Quarterbacks
Kirk Cousins: Cousins heads into Week 2 fresh off a strong Week 1 performance. He finished as the QB9 in fantasy scoring. Cousins was 14th in passing grade, fifth in yards per attempt, and fifth in adjusted completion rate in Week 1. While the Eagles could deploy more man coverage in this game, they could remain a zone-heavy pass defense. In Week 1, they defended the second-most dropbacks in zone coverage. Last season, they allowed the eighth-lowest yards per attempt and held quarterbacks to the sixth-lowest passer rating in zone coverage. Cousins last season against zone ranked 16th in yards per attempt, 12th in passer rating, and fifth in CPOE on deep throws (per Fantasy Points Data). Cousins is a low-end QB1/high-end QB2.
Jalen Hurts: Hurts didn’t play his best football in Week 1. Despite ranking tenth in passing grade and 11th in adjusted completion rate, he logged the eighth-lowest yards per attempt for the week as the QB19 in fantasy. Last season, Hurts finished with only two games outside the top 12 in weekly fantasy scoring at the quarterback position. This is a huge bounce-back opportunity for Hurts. Brian Flores’ new-look defense was surprisingly majorly zone-heavy in Week 1. We’ll see if that trend continues all season, but we can’t ignore that his corners operated in zone coverage on 72-86% of their snaps in Week 1. Last season, Hurts was eighth in adjusted completion rate, eighth in yards per attempt, and third in passer rating against zone coverage (minimum 100 dropbacks per Fantasy Points Data). Hurts is a top-three fantasy option this week.
Running Backs
Alexander Mattison: Mattison was an uninspiring workhorse in Week 1. Honestly, I’m not shocked by his relative meh stat line. Despite playing 73% of the snaps, Mattison finished with only 14 touches and 44 total yards as a touchdown saved his fantasy day. Mattison ran a route on 53% of dropbacks, sadly only drawing a 9% target share. His 2.45 yards after contact and 17.5 elusive rating were pitiful. Mattison faces a tough task this week against an Eagles run defense that looks reborn. After ranking 18th in stuff rate and allowing the 12th-highest yards after contact per attempt last year, in Week 1, Philadelphia held New England to 3.4 yards per carry with the 11th-highest stuff rate and lowest yards after contact per attempt allowed. Mattison is a volume RB2.
Kenneth Gainwell: Gainwell has been ruled out (ribs).
D’Andre Swift: Swift should assume the lead-back role in Philadelphia. I’m also prepared for the pain of Rashaad Penny and/or Boston Scott trolling me all game with touchdowns. In Week 1, Swift played 29% of the snaps with only two touches and three total yards. Swift only saw a 34.2% route per dropback rate in Week 1. Last season, Swift ranked 20th in yards after contact per attempt, seventh in breakaway rate, and 16th in elusive rating. Minnesota allowed only 2.2 yards per carry and the tenth-lowest yards before contact in Week 1. Still, their 21st ranking in stuff rate illuminates that they might not be that good but that Tampa Bay could just be that bad at running the ball in 2023. The Vikings allowed the 11th-most receptions and ninth-most receiving yards to backs last season. Swift could be busy in Week 2, but I’m prepared for pain if Penny or Scott gets into the rotation. Swift is an RB2 with big-time upside in Week 2.
Wide Receivers
Justin Jefferson: Week 1 was a dominant opening performance from Justin Jefferson. He vacuumed up a 29.2% target share while handling a 38.7% air yard share. Jefferson finished second in receiving yards behind only Tyreek Hill as the WR6 for the week. I know none of this shocks anyone with Jefferson on their roster. He’s a stud that only leaves your lineup for his bye week. Jefferson is a top-three wide receiver weekly. He’ll run about 75% of his routes against Darius Slay (56.6% catch rate and 82.4 passer rating allowed in 2022) and Josh Jobe (four targets defended in his two-year career). James Bradberry likely doesn’t play in this game (concussion protocol). Don’t put it past the Eagles to shadow Jefferson with Slay in this game. Have they allowed Slay to shadow recently? No, but new defensive coordinator Sean Desai has a history of utilizing more man coverage than his predecessor. In 2021 with the Bears, Jaylon Johnson shadowed three times following the opposing top receiving on 57-89% of their routes.
Jordan Addison: Sadly, Addison wasn’t even a full-time player in Week 1. He only saw a 65.9% route per dropback rate. He was productive when he was on the field, with 1.97 yards per route run (61 receiving yards), but only saw a 13.6% target share (19.3% TPRR). Addison could graduate to a full-time role in Week 2, especially if Jefferson gets followed all game by Slay. Addison will run about 65% of his routes on the perimeter against Slay and Jobe. If Slay is in Jefferson’s back pocket, Addison could feast against the Eagles’ unproven second-year corner. Addison is a WR3/4 that could walk into WR2 production this week.
K.J. Osborn: Osborn posted a very “K.J. Osborn” type of stat line in Week 1 with six targets (13.6% target share), 31 receiving yards, and zero scores. The offseason rumors were true at least for one week, with Osborn playing more than Addison as he soaked up a 93% route participation. Osborn played more outside last week, with 53% of his snaps coming via the boundary. If Addison sees his playing time bump in Week 2, I expect Osborn to be utilized more in the slot, pitting him against Avonte Maddox (82.6% catch rate and 100.3 passer rating allowed in 2022). Osborn is a WR5/6 that only piques slight interest in Showdown DFS.
A.J. Brown: Last week, Brown led the Eagles with a 33.3% target share and 58.7% air yard share. He led the team in receiving yards against the Patriots man coverage heavy defense. This week, he should still be heavily involved against what looks like a zone-centric affair in Minnesota. Last year, Brown had a 22.2% target share (Smith 23.4%) against zone while tying Smith with a 23% TPRR against the coverage. Brown bested Smith with 2.56 yards per route run against zone, which placed him ninth among wide receivers in this metric against zone, immediately behind Davante Adams (minimum 100 routes per Fantasy Points Data). Brown is a WR1 who will run about 92% of his routes against Akayleb Evans (60.7% catch rate and 102.4 passer rating allowed in his career) and Byron Murphy (64.3% catch rate and 105.5 passer rating allowed in 2022).
DeVonta Smith: In Week 1, Smith matched Brown with a 33.3% target share, but his air yard share was 34.3% as his aDOT was 9.8 (Brown 18.6). Smith led the team with a 23.4% target share last year against zone coverage. He tied Brown with a 23% TPRR as he finished with 1.94 yards per route run against the coverage (27th among 119 qualifying wide receivers). Smith will run about 78% of his routes against Evans and Murphy as a strong WR2 with WR1 upside in Week 2.
Tight Ends
T.J. Hockenson: Hockenson finished with the second-most targets for any tight end in Week 1 (eight). Hockenson saw a 21.9% target share and 10.7% air yard share, but he did very little with the volume. Despite ranking fourth in receiving grade among tight ends (minimum three targets), he could only muster 0.97 yards per route run. Last year, after joining the Vikings, Hockenson saw a 22.7% target share, 28% TPRR, and 1.78 yards per route run against zone coverage. These figures ranked third, third, and eighth among 29 qualifying tight ends over that span. Hockenson remains a high-end TE1 who could be in for a busy day if Philadelphia tries to take away Jefferson. Last year, Philly allowed the 13th-lowest yards per reception and fantasy points to opposing tight ends.
Dallas Goedert: Yep, Godert goose egged in Week 1. He finished a total zero in the box score with only one target. Shrug that poor performance off and realize Goedert remains a top-five option at the tight-end position. Goedert ranked fourth in receiving grade and sixth in yards per route run among tight ends last year. That talent hasn’t gone anywhere. Last season, Goedert posted a strong 19.2% target share, 20% TPRR, and 2.08 yards per route run against zone coverage. Last year, Minnesota allowed the fourth-highest yards per reception and ninth-most (tied) receiving touchdowns to tight ends.
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*All data utilized in this article courtesy of FantasyPros, PFF, SharpFootball Stats, Football Outsiders, FTN, Rotoviz, and Playerprofiler.com unless otherwise specified.*
