Tonight’s MLB pick ’em lobby is vast. This piece narrows the focus to the five most alluring pick ’em choices available. It’s a balanced collection of suggested selections tonight, with a mix of pitcher and hitter props.
Get 100% Deposit Match up to $100 at Underdog
Tuesday’s Top Underdog Fantasy MLB Pick ‘Em Picks
Adam Wainwright: 3.5 Earned Runs – Higher
Wainwright is having a nightmare season. Further, he’s been at his worst on the road and in the second half. According to FanGraphs, Waino has an 8.79 ERA and 5.77 xFIP in 42.0 innings on the road. The 42-year-old righty also has an 8.92 ERA and 5.78 xFIP in 37.1 innings in the second half.
In addition, Waino has exceeded 3.5 earned runs in eight of his previous 11 starts. The veteran righty has also coughed up more than 3.5 earned runs in six of nine starts on the road this year.
The Orioles are a challenging matchup tonight. They’re tied for 11th in wRC+ (104) versus righties in 2023. Baltimore is tied for 10th in wRC+ (108) at home this year. Finally, the Orioles are fourth in wRC+ (128) in the previous 30 days.
Adley Rutschman: 8.0 Fantasy Points – Higher
Sadly, gamers can’t use this pick with Waino’s prop on Underdog Fantasy. Nevertheless, Rutschman’s prop is too good to leave out of this piece. In 185 plate appearances against righties at home this year, Rutschman has six doubles, one triple, nine homers, a .395 OBP, .213 ISO and 156 wRC+. Conversely, Wainwright has yielded a .443 OBP, .651 slugging and .457 wOBA to 202 lefties in 2023.
Ryne Nelson: 21.5 Fantasy Points – Lower
Nelson hasn’t been as inept as Wainwright this year. Nevertheless, the young righty has a 5.30 ERA, 5.36 xERA, 5.27 xFIP, 1.42 WHIP, 7.0 BB%, 15.2 K% and 23.4 CSW% in 25 starts spanning 130.2 innings. Nelson’s low strikeout rate isn’t optimal for scoring fantasy points. Furthermore, he’s pitched fewer than six innings in 17 of 25 starts, meaning he’s not pitching deep enough to qualify for a quality start, even without factoring in the run-prevention component.
The Mets won’t make his life easy tonight, either. New York is tied for 15th in wRC+ (102) versus righties this season. This year, they’re tied for 13th in wRC+ (105) at home. Finally, the Mets are 12th in wRC+ (109) in the previous 30 days.
Freddy Peralta: 36.5 Fantasy Points – Higher
Peralta is outstanding from the bump at home this year. In 82.2 innings in Milwaukee this year, Peralta has a 3.59 ERA, 2.99 xFIP, 0.99 WHIP, 7.5 BB% and 35.2 K%. The strikeout artist has fanned at least seven batters in 10 of 15 starts. He’s also had a quality start in eight of his home starts.
The matchup is unimposing for Peralta tonight as well. The Marlins are 21st in wRC+ (90) and have a 21.1 K% versus righties this year. Miami is tied for 19th in wRC+ (97) on the road. They’re also tied for 23rd in wRC+ (89) in the previous 30 days. Finally, per Betting Pros, Milwaukee is -167, and the game’s total is only 7.5 runs.
Cody Bellinger: 1.5 Total Bases – Higher
Bellinger has a cupcake matchup tonight in dreamy hitting conditions. Coors Field has the highest park factor for runs and enhances singles, doubles, triples and homers. Additionally, the matchup is drool-inducing. Chris Flexen has a 7.36 ERA, 6.02 xERA and 5.10 xFIP this year in 25 appearances (12 starts). He’s also coughed up eight doubles, seven homers, a .308 batting average and .507 slugging to lefties in 2023.
Bellinger shouldn’t have any trouble against Colorado’s relievers, either. The Rockies have the highest bullpen ERA (5.34) this season.
And, of course, Bellinger is raking this season. In 319 plate appearances against righties in 2023, Bellinger has 15 doubles, 16 homers, a .302 batting average, .521 slugging and .219 ISO.
Whether you’re new to fantasy baseball or a seasoned pro, our Fantasy Baseball 101: Strategy Tips & Advice page is for you. You can get started with our Sabermetrics Glossary or head to a more advanced strategy – like Maximizing Your Potential in Multi-Lineup Contests – to learn more.
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.