Last night was the start of the NFL season. Fortunately, the MLB season is still plugging along, and gamers at Underdog Fantasy have plenty of options in the pick ’em lobby tonight. This piece highlights the five most alluring pick ’em choices for tonight’s MLB action.
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Friday’s Top Underdog Fantasy MLB Pick ‘Em Picks
Eury Perez: 27.5 Fantasy Points – Lower
Perez is having a sensational rookie season at only 20 years old. However, the Marlins have exercised caution with their wunderkind. According to ESPN, the righty’s season-high for pitches in a start is 93, and he’s thrown under 90 pitches in four of his previous five starts. Perez also failed to complete five innings in three of those turns, making him ineligible to receive a win and leaving him short of the qualifications to earn a quality start.
Perez has also been slightly lucky lately. According to FanGraphs, he had a 3.05 ERA, 4.40 xFIP and 3.90 SIERA in his last four starts.
The rookie will have his work cut out for him tonight in a challenging matchup. The Phillies are tied for ninth in wRC+ (105) versus righties this year. Philadelphia is tied for fifth in wRC+ (115) at home in 2023. Finally, they’re second in wRC+ (141) and first in ISO (.267) in the previous 30 days.
Corey Seager: 9.5 Fantasy Points – Higher
Seager has feasted with the platoon advantage at home this season. In 170 plate appearances against righties at Globe Life Field, he has swatted 14 homers with a .476 OBP, .397 ISO and 237 wRC+.
Paul Blackburn is unlikely to toss cold water on Seager’s home heater. The 29-year-old righty has allowed a .367 OBP and .341 wOBA to 177 lefties faced this season.
Matt Olson: 10.5 Fantasy Points – Higher
Olson is borderline unstoppable at home with the platoon advantage. The left-handed slugger has 25 homers, a .415 OBP, .411 ISO and 193 wRC+ in 248 plate appearances against righties at Truist Park this season.
Conversely, Mitch Keller struggles with left-handed batters. The righty has allowed a .334 wOBA to 374 lefties this season. Furthermore, Keller has had a 4.62 ERA in 87.2 innings on the road in 2023.
Francisco Lindor: 8.5 Fantasy Points – Higher
Dallas Keuchel doesn’t belong in a big-league rotation in the year 2023. In five appearances (four starts) this year, he has a 5.06 ERA, 5.91 xERA and 5.12 xFIP. Keuchel also had a 9.20 ERA, 5.49 xERA and 4.72 xFIP in 14 starts in the majors last year. The lefty has been at his worst against righties, yielding a .362 OBP, .484 slugging and .362 wOBA to them.
The switch-hitting Lindor should punish Keuchel from the second spot in New York’s lineup. In 378 plate appearances against lefties since last year, Lindor has hit 22 homers with a .323 OBP, .229 ISO and 128 wRC+.
Mark Vientos: 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs – Higher
I specifically excluded one statistic in Keuchel’s 2023 struggles in the write-up above to save it for Vientos’s write-up. Keuchel has struck out only 8.7% of right-handed batters this year. His pitch-to-contact approach will likely get him into trouble against Vientos.
New York’s young slugger has some of the most eye-popping exit velocity data in the majors. Among players with at least 90 batted-ball events this year, Vientos is sixth in average exit velocity (93.7 mph), 27th in maximum exit velocity (114.9 mph) and tied for ninth in HardHit% (52.4%).
Vientos didn’t hit the ground running in MLB. Yet, he’s cruising now. He’s on a five-game-hitting streak in which he has one triple, two homers, a .526 OBP, .500 ISO and 288 wRC+.
Whether you’re new to fantasy baseball or a seasoned pro, our Fantasy Baseball 101: Strategy Tips & Advice page is for you. You can get started with our Sabermetrics Glossary or head to a more advanced strategy – like Maximizing Your Potential in Multi-Lineup Contests – to learn more.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
