Fantasy football sleepers. It’s a popular phrase, especially as we all gear up for fantasy football drafts, but what does it mean? To us, a fantasy football sleeper is a player that can beat their average draft positions (ADP) by a significant margin, akin to performances from Rhamondre Stevenson, Tyler Allgeier, and Dameon Pierce last year. I’ve come up with a sleeper for each NFL team in this article, which includes sleepers for shallow and deep fantasy football leagues. Below I’ve identified my top 13 fantasy football sleepers of the 2023 draft season.
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Top Fantasy Football Draft Sleepers
The Colts rookie quarterback is my best bet to win Offensive Rookie of the Year and to break out in Year 1. The former Gator brings an exceptional level of athleticism to the table, and with the right coaching staff, his sky-high potential can be fully realized. He has already secured the Day 1 starting position. Even if the Colts don’t have a strong real-life record, Richardson’s rushing production and off-script playmaking will put him over the top. At Florida, Richardson averaged 60 rushing yards per game. Also, Richardson’s extremely low pressure-to-sack rate (sub-10%, first in the 2023 QB Class) further highlights his off-script playmaking. With passers being pushed up the board more aggressively than in recent years, Richardson as the QB15 gives late-round QB drafters a chance to compete.
It’s this exact rushing that will give Richardson a high floor in fantasy, with an improvement as a passer taking him to the next level. Because if you just look back at first-round rookie QBs that offered value with their legs, their production matched that of a low-end fantasy QB1.
The points per game marks ranged between 17-19-point averages which has been the QB15-QB10 range over the past two seasons. That’s considering the rookie years of Justin Fields, Trey Lance, Jalen Hurts, Kyler Murray, Daniel Jones, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson. Of course, only by factoring the games, they were the featured/starting QB.
At any price outside the top-15 QBs, Richardson is a no-brainer selection. Especially in 1QB formats.
Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Kenny Pickett is already showing signs of growth in Year 2 after finishing his rookie season on a high note. From Weeks 12-18, Pickett was PFF’s highest-graded quarterback. He also added 235 rushing yards on the ground, putting him close to that desired 250-300 rushing yards threshold we should be aiming for our fantasy QBs to hit. Pittsburgh did an excellent job revamping their offensive line this season. So it shouldn’t be surprising to see Pickett take substantial strides in Year 2. He ended the 2023 preseason with a perfect passer rater.
Kendre Miller spent his first two seasons in a two-way platoon with Zach Evans before the latter transferred to Mississippi. Miller flashed talent in limited sample size, leading the FBS in yards after contact per attempt (5.06) in 2021. But with Evans gone in 2022, Miller was thrust into the RB1 role for the Horned Frogs, where he posted a career-high 23 percent dominator rating. The bell cow rushed for nearly 1400 yards at 5-foot-11, 215 pounds (identical to Bijan Robinson), and his size is enticing in addition to the efficiency he displayed on a per-play basis at the college level. Miller’s career of 3.14 yards per play ranks fourth best in the class. He’s explosive with the ball in his hands, as indicated by his 21 rushes of 15-plus yards last year (tied for the fifth-highest in the class).
Per Sports Info Solutions, Miller also posted the 4th-lowest bust run rate (percentage of plays that resulted in EPA below -1) and finished first in his class in broken tackles per 100 touches (18).
Miller did not test at all during the pre-draft process (recovering from post-season knee surgery), but that didn’t stop the New Orleans Saints from investing a third-round pick in him during the 2023 NFL Draft. Miller is an ideal home-run hitter and 1-2 punch fit with veteran Jamaal Williams to start the year for New Orleans with Alvin Kamara suspended through the first three weeks of the season. Once the Miller genie is out of the bottle…might be hard to put him back in.
Former undrafted 2022 free agent, Jaylen Warren shined with every opportunity he got in the Steelers backfield last season. After earning the No. 2 role behind Najee Harris, Warren finished third in rushing success rate (45.5%) and second in the 2022 RB class in yards per route run behind just Breece Hall. Warren’s efficient play suggests he will continue to see snaps alongside Najee Harris which has been on full display during the Steelers’ preseason contests. Harris has out-snapped Warren just 16-12 on 28 snaps from the first-team offense during the exhibition contests. Six carries each with Harris running more routes.
But further baked into his upside case is that should Harris miss any time, the 215-pound Warren would inherit bell-cow duties without any other Steelers RBs behind him yearning for touches.
Kenneth Gainwell‘s usage increased towards the end of the 2022 season, and he out-targeted Miles Sanders 18-5 from Week 15 onward. Kenny G forced a time share with Sanders. The former starter played fewer than 40% of snaps in his last five games, after never playing fewer than 50% of snaps from Weeks 1-16. Gainwell/Sanders split touches nearly 50/50 in the team’s last four games, with Gainwell seeing preferred usage on passing downs. With Sanders in Carolinas and the Eagles backfield almost completely overturned with additions of D’Andre Swift and Rashaad Penny… Gainwell has the chance to see an expanded role on the ground after the team showed immense trust in him during the postseason.
Gainwell has been super-efficient for two years in the NFL, finishing inside the top 8 in fantasy points per touch both seasons. The ONLY other RB to do so? Austin Ekeler.
The team has been extremely high on Gainwell this offseason, with him in the driver’s seat over newcomers to be the team’s featured back. He sat out the team’s first preseason game with many other of the Eagles starters.
De’Von Achane is one of the most exciting rookie running backs entering the league this season. In his final year at Texas A&M, Achane exploded for 1,100 rushing yards and eight touchdowns, while also catching 36 passes (3.6/game) for 196 yards. He finished the season with a 33% dominator rating, proving that he can handle a large workload as the clear-cut No. 1 back for the Aggies. Despite concerns about his size, Achane proved his toughness by carrying the ball 38 times for 215 yards and two touchdowns in his final game against LSU. Achane ended his final college season with the second-highest “hit at the line” positive run percentage, making the most of unfortunate situations when the defense pierced through the offensive line. The Miami Dolphins made a smart move by selecting Achane in the third round of the 2023 NFL Draft. It was the highest draft pick used on a running back by the Dolphins since Kenyan Drake.
He is a perfect fit for their outside zone running offense, and his elite track speed will make him a terror for opposing defenses. The current depth chart in Miami consists of an injury-prone Raheem Mostert and journeyman Jeff Wilson Jr., so Achane has a real chance to earn opportunities if not the starting job altogether. It’s not too crazy to think Achane can rise the depth chart that currently consists of a 31-year-old injury-prone Mostert and journeyman Wilson, the latter who was just placed on IR.
Not only is Achane a dynamic runner, but he is also an elite kickoff returner. He finished last season as PFF’s third-highest graded kick returner among 2023 draft-eligible players. This ensures he will be an active player on game days, giving him additional opportunities to make an impact. Achane’s potential in Miami’s offense and lack of competition behind him makes him a great high-upside pick in fantasy drafts.
Achane’s ADP is lagging with Dalvin Cook signing with the New York Jets and Jonathan Taylor remaining an Indianapolis Colt.
A lackluster rookie season has everybody writing off 2022 second-round WR Skyy Moore. But the young WR showed bright spots as the season progressed. After JuJu Smith-Schuster got hurt in Week 10, Moore went on to lead all Chiefs WRs in targets over the next two weeks (12 targets, 10 catches for 99 yards, 3.19 yards per route run) as the team’s primary slot receiver. Moore was hyper-targeted on 36% of his routes (25% snap share, 4 targets) in Week 17 vs. the Broncos when, again, he saw high usage from the inside. And in the conference championship game, Moore once again commanded 6 targets, while running 12 routes from the slot (second-most in 2022).
Many draft pundits and Chiefs beat writers are crowning Kadarius Toney as the heir to the KC WR1 chair (if and when he gets healthy) but Moore looks like the dark horse to earn starting slot duties that Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman left behind. Simply put, Moore saw 6 targets in the games where he ran at least 10 slot routes. He also had at least 2 receptions in five games where he ran at least 7 slot routes. Hardman and Smith-Schuster averaged 13.5 slot routes per game last season. Therefore, don’t count Moore out quite yet. Recall, Moore ranked second in college football in his final year in yards per route run from the slot.
Moore has been used as a clear-cut starter during the preseason, playing the majority of his snaps with the first-team offense from the slot.
Marvin Mims was an elite producer at the collegiate level, hanging a 23 percent dominator rating in three years as an Oklahoma Sooner. He burst onto the scene as an 18-year-old freshman with a 24 percent dominator rating, triggering an early-age breakout. Mims led the team with 37 catches for 610 receiving yards and nine receiving touchdowns. He also finished fifth in the nation in yards per route run (4.07) and seventh in PFF receiving grade (89.1). The 5-foot-11 and 183-pound wide receiver would cap off his college career strong with over 1,000 receiving yards as a junior, averaging 20 yards per reception for the second straight season. Mims was a fiend with the ball in his hands, finishing seventh in his class in yards after the catch per reception (8.1) despite a high average depth of target (17.0).
It’s rare to find a wide receiver like Mims who can make plays after the catch and win downfield. Mims finished third in the FBS in receiving yards and fifth in targets on 20-plus air-yard throws in 2022. He also offers ability as a punt returner. The one concern about his production profile is that the majority of it came against zone coverage looks. He only caught nine passes in man coverage. But in today’s NFL, the WRs that can find the soft spots in zone coverage tend to turn into PPR monsters.
His 2023 NFL Scouting Combine showing cemented his status for me inside my upper echelon of this year’s crop of rookie WRs. The Oklahoma Sooner ran a 4.38 40-yard dash (90th percentile), jumped a 39.5-inch vertical (89th percentile), leaped 129 inches in the broad jump (89th percentile), and posted a 6.9 3-cone drill (72nd percentile). His impressive testing, early-age production, deep-threat prowess, and ability to win after the catch are all reasons to be “in” on Mims for fantasy football. The dude just turned 21 years old yet.
Mims was drafted by the Denver Broncos in the second round (63rd overall) in the 2023 NFL Draft, solidifying his status for me as the clear-cut No. 5 WR in the draft class behind the four 1st-rounders.
He was the first overall pick for the Broncos in the newly established Sean Payton era. They traded UP to get him, despite not having that many picks to work with. Mims can fill the much-needed deep-threat role vacated by recently released, K.J. Hamler. The perfect deep target.
The Giants are definitely home to the forgotten WRs. Next up, Darius Slayton. The former fifth-round pick went from an off-season trade/cut candidate to become the WR1 in the Giants offense as the team patchworked a functioning receiving room during the latter portion of the season. From Weeks 5-17, Slayton was the WR31 in total points (WR39 points per game) averaging 8.8 fantasy points, 59 receiving yards and nearly six targets per game (20% target share). The former Day 3 pick was used exclusively as Big Blue’s primary deep threat with a dominant 37% air yards share – a top-12 mark among all WRs. His 1.70 yards per route run represented a career-high and ranked 31st among 54 qualifying WRs with at least 80 targets. He also finished as a top-36 WR in 54% of his 13 contests (seven games).
That was equal to the likes of Mike Evans, Michael Pittman Jr., Jerry Jeudy, Mike Williams, Adam Thielen and Marquise Brown. He actually finished as a WR3 at a higher rate than D.J. Moore, Christian Kirk and Garrett Wilson.
Slayton re-signed with the Giants in the offseason, inking a two-year deal worth $6M with $4.9 M guaranteed. He is currently the team’s highest-paid WR and should be a lock for a full snap share in 2023. He should be able to slide seamlessly back onto the perimeter as the Giants big playmaker opposite Hodgins, as long as he can fend off 2023 third-round pick Jalin Hyatt. Hyatt offers a ton of upside in his own right, but it might not be until later in the season that he fires.
Jonathan Mingo, the Carolina Panthers’ second-round pick from Ole Miss, is a compelling choice to lead all rookies in receiving yards in 2023, offering enticing +1400 odds, according to FanDuel Sportsbook. Mingo possesses an impressive size/speed combination, standing at 6-foot-2, 220 pounds, and boasting 4.46 speed. This physical profile, coupled with his ability to adjust to balls downfield and break tackles, makes him an appealing option for big receiving totals. Mingo’s downfield prowess should mesh well with his rookie quarterback, Bryce Young. In 2022, a notable 31% of his targets came on throws of 20-plus yards downfield, trailing only Marvin Mims in the class (38%). Remarkably, Mingo earned a superb 99.9 PFF grade when targeted downfield, equivalent to his draft classmates Jalin Hyatt and Jordan Addison. Furthermore, he excelled in generating yardage after the catch, ranking 10th in the FBS among wide receivers with at least 80 targets in yards after the catch per reception (7.5). Although Mingo had a breakout season at Ole Miss, amassing 51 catches for 861 receiving yards and five touchdowns, his trajectory was impacted by an injury in 2021. Nonetheless, he showcased his potential by averaging over 100 receiving yards per game in the first three games of the season before being sidelined. The Panthers receiving corps features two veterans in Adam Thielen and D.J. Chark Jr., but Mingo has a strong chance to emerge as the team’s primary wide receiver in his rookie year. With his draft capital, an immediate opportunity for playing time, and ability to generate significant yardage both after the catch and downfield, Mingo presents a savvy bet to lead all rookies in receiving yards. It’s worth noting that Panthers General Manager Scott Fitterer previously drafted a wide receiver from Ole Miss in the second round, DK Metcalf, back in 2019. In his first year, Metcalf finished third among rookies in receiving yards, while leading in targets and routes run. This precedent adds further credibility to Mingo’s potential impact.
Rookie Dalton Kincaid is an intriguing option after the Buffalo Bills selected him in the first round of this year’s draft. Kincaid projects as a hybrid slot receiver in the Bills’ offense. Dawson Knox led all tight ends last season in passer rating generated (137.5) from the slot last season.
The rookie tight end spent his first two college seasons at San Diego playing a limited role. But he made the most of every touch he got, averaging nearly 19 yards per reception. His 21.0 yards per reception in 2019 ranked second among all TEs in both the FCS and FBS. After the impressive showing, Kincaid transferred to Utah in 2020 but missed the majority of the season due to COVID implications. It wasn’t until 2021 that Kincaid truly got his shot, and he absolutely dominated. Kincaid posted a 25% dominator rating as the 11th-highest-graded tight end in the nation per PFF. Kincaid followed up his impressive 2021 campaign nicely in 2022 with another eight-touchdown season. His dominator rating jumped to 26% as he led the nation in PFF receiving grade and finished 3rd in yards per route run. Kincaid led Utah with 70 receptions (5.8 receptions per game, 22% target share), the most by any tight end in the nation. At 246 pounds, Kincaid is on the smaller side of the tight end spectrum, making him perfect for the slot in the NFL. He ran 55% of his routes from the slot in 2022.
I’ve been on the Gerald Everett bandwagon for far too long, but that hardly means I am jumping off anytime soon. Because he’s being vastly underrated after a solid season. He didn’t experience a full-fledged breakout, but he was useable (from tight end standards). He was the TE15 and ranked second on the team in red-zone targets last season despite modest snap usage (58% route participation). In a new offense led by offensive coordinator, Kellen Moore, we could see Everett’s route usage spike. We saw firsthand how that role did wonders for Dalton Schultz‘s fantasy upside over the past two seasons. And Everett is still a superior athlete, giving him more upside than Schultz could ever deliver. Last year, Everett ranked 7th in yards after the catch per reception (6.5) while also finishing 8th in receptions (58) and 9th in targets (82). Those were all career highs. Long story short, Everett had a career year in his first year with the Chargers and is cheaper than last season. You know what do to. Mt. Everett 2023 eruption szn.
New Orleans Saints DST
The New Orleans Saints have the easiest schedule based on Vegas’ forecasted win totals. And when it comes to the start of the schedule, no team has it easier over the first six weeks. The first six matchups are the Titans, Panthers, Packers, Buccaneers, Patriots and Texans. The soft-on-paper matchups are extremely soft for their DST to outperform their draft day price tag (free). Also works favorably in the Saints’ favor that they ranked so poorly in interceptions (7, 30th) in 2022. Hardly aligns with how well they generated pressure (4th in pressure rate). Only the Panthers dropped more INTs than the Saints did last season. Positive regression is coming.
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