Gamers who don’t spend a premium draft pick on Travis Kelce or Mark Andrews have a few choices. First, they can take a stab at either T.J. Hockenson or George Kittle at their steamed-up average draft position (ADP), but that’s ill-advised.
Second, they can wait a little longer and fire a bullet on Darren Waller, Kyle Pitts or Dallas Goedert. While that’s a more palatable move, and Waller is an excellent target, many intriguing alternatives are available at other positions, enhancing the opportunity cost to choose a tight end.
Third, gamers can panic and spend a top-100 choice on an overvalued tight end, such as Evan Engram, Pat Freiermuth or David Njoku. No thanks. None of the trio is worth a top-100 pick. Instead, gamers should double-dip on high-upside sleepers, and a pair of rookies is an exciting pairing that swings for the fences.
- More Fantasy Football Advice
- Snake Draft Pick Strategy: Early | Middle | Late
- Draft Targets for Every Round: Early | Middle | Late
- Fitz’s Draft Primers: QB | RB | WR | TE
Post-TE10 Sleepers
Dalton Kincaid (TE – BUF): TE11, 129.7 ADP/TE14, 139 ECR
The Bills traded up in the first round of this year’s NFL Draft to choose Kincaid 26th overall, making him the first tight end selected in this year’s loaded class. Buffalo needed someone to pick up the slack behind Stefon Diggs as a reliable secondary option, and Kincaid might fit the bill.
According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Kincaid was first in PFF receiving grade, first in receptions (70), second in receiving yards (890), second in Yards per Route Run (2.41 Y/RR), tied for second in touchdown receptions (eight) and third in missed tackles forced (16 MTF) out of 69 FBS tight ends targeted at least 35 times in the 2022 season.
Kincaid was alignment versatile and a weapon after the catch, aligning wide (9.5%), inline (35.4%) and in the slot (55.1%) and amassing 5.7 Yards After the Catch per Reception (YAC/REC). With Kincaid spending nearly 65% of his passing snaps aligned wide or in the slot, Kincaid is arguably more of a jumbo wide receiver than a tight end.
The Bills have used him in a similar capacity in the preseason. Kincaid has played 26 passing snaps and was inline only 26.9% of the time, aligning wide at an 11.5% clip and in the slot for 61.5% of those snaps. The rookie also played an encouraging rate of snaps on Josh Allen‘s dropbacks.
TE Dalton Kincaid ran a route on 13 of Allen’s 19 dropbacks (68%) over the last two preseason games.
– Jared Smola (@SmolaDS) August 27, 2023
Ideally, Kincaid’s route participation would be higher. Nevertheless, his rate in the last two preseason games was a good jumping-off point for an organization that’s traditionally taken a slow-burn approach with their rookies.
Furthermore, Kincaid will benefit from Buffalo’s offensive philosophies and high-scoring ability. First, per Football Outsiders, the Bills played at the eighth-fastest situation-neutral pace in 2022. Second, according to nfelo app, the Bills had the third-highest Pass Rate Over Expected (6.1% PROE). Third, per Pro-Football-Reference, they had the second-highest scoring offense (28.4 points per game) last season.
Thus, the ecosystem is ideal for Kincaid. The rookie might not come out of the gate as a monster contributor. Yet, Kincaid can emerge as a fantasy cheat code down the stretch if he’s used nearly full-time by the end of the year. And since the alternatives at other positions near his ADP lack Kincaid’s upside, it makes sense to swing for the fences by choosing the rookie tight end and pairing him with another late-round tight end.
Sam LaPorta (TE – DET): TE17, 172.3 ADP/TE19, 152 ECR
LaPorta is a rare rookie tight end who doesn’t have to contend with a veteran roadblock. In addition, the Lions have a dire need for ancillary pass-catching weapons behind target sponge Amon-Ra St. Brown. So, LaPorta can be a meaningful fantasy contributor immediately in an offense that had intriguing tight end contributions last season.
The following table shows the stats from Detroit’s tight ends in 2022.
Tight ends played a critical role in Detroit's passing attack last year. And they had a nose for the endzone, scoring 12 touchdowns. As their gaudy touchdown output suggested, they were heavily featured in the red zone. According to our red zone stats, Detroit's tight ends combined for 13 targets, 11 receptions and 10 touchdowns inside the 10-yard line. The linked full-season stats in the red zone also captured Hockenson's time with the Vikings, but he had four targets, two receptions and two touchdowns while on the Lions from Week 1 through Week 8. If the Lions continue to use their tight ends heavily in the red zone, LaPorta can be a touchdown-dependent low-end TE1. But if he can consolidate the majority of last year's work by the position as their starting tight end this season, he can make even more significant waves in fantasy football leagues.
Thankfully, LaPorta isn't a stiff. The rookie tight end is an elite athlete who played well in Iowa's lousy offense. Instead of regurgitating LaPorta's athletic testing and collegiate production, readers should check out the rookie tight end's write-up in the Fantasy Football All-Undrafted Team piece from earlier this month. LaPorta's total package is alluring, making him an outstanding late-round dart to pair with Kincaid, a boring veteran at the position, such as Dalton Schultz or Tyler Higbee or with another high-upside late-round tight end not included in this piece, like Juwan Johnson or Luke Musgrave.
More Players to Target & Avoid
- Pat Fitzmaurice: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
- Andrew Erickson: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
- Derek Brown: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
- Fantasy Football Sleepers for Every Team (Premium)
- How to Identify Fantasy Football Busts (Premium)
- Erickson's Guide to Drafting Players on Good Offenses
- Fantasy Football Draft Values for Every Round
- Predicting First-Round Bust Candidates
- DBro's Wide Receiver Lottery Tickets
- Erickson's Running Back Lottery Tickets
- Hoppen's 4 Players Who Could Become First-Round Picks Next Year
- Fantasy Football All-Undrafted Teamv2 | v3)
- Fantasy Football All-Undrafted Team
- Late-Round Draft Targets
- Fantasy Football All-Undrafted TeamMore QB Sleepers
- Late-Round RB Targets | More RB Sleepers | July RB Targets
- Late-Round WR Targets
- Late-Round TE Targets
- Fantasy Football All-Undrafted Team
- Fantasy Football All-Undrafted Teamv2)| Fantasy Football All-Undrafted TeamFantasy Football All-Undrafted Team
- Fantasy Football All-Undrafted TeamFantasy Football All-Undrafted Team
- Fantasy Football All-Undrafted Team
- Fantasy Football Sleepers for Every Team
- Fantasy Football Sleepers for Every Team
- Post-Hype Sleepers
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
