The Primer: Week 4 Edition (2023 Fantasy Football)

The Primer: Week 4 Edition (2023 Fantasy Football)

Baltimore Ravens vs. Cleveland Browns

BettingPros: Ravens at Browns Betting Matchup

Pace and playcalling notes

  • Baltimore is operating like Philly last year. The Ravens are 12th-best in neutral pace with the second-highest neutral rushing rate.
  • The Browns are 13th and 18th in neutral pace and passing rate.

Quarterbacks

Lamar Jackson: Jackson’s passing hasn’t been very impressive. Yes, he has the fourth-best adjusted completion rate, but he is also 16th in passing grade and has the fourth-lowest aDOT. His rushing continues to bring him the Fantasy flowers as he’s third in carries per game and second in rushing yards. This has led to QB9 and QB3 weekly finishes in the last two weeks. This week’s matchup is brutal, so Jackson will have to run to finish with a decent fantasy day. Cleveland has allowed the lowest yards per attempt, the third-lowest passer rating, and the second-lowest adjusted completion rate. The Browns will send the house this week as they rank tenth in blitz rate and first in pressure rate. Jackson has the eighth-lowest passer grade and the ninth-lowest yards per attempt against the blitz this season. Week 4 Positional Value: low-end QB1

Deshaun Watson: Watson has been ruled out.

Dorian Thompson-Robinson: Thompson-Robinson was impressive in the preseason. Among 79 quarterbacks with at least 15 dropbacks in the preseason, he was 18th in passing grade, 20th in yards per attempt, and 31st in adjusted completion rate. He also added 69 rushing yards in his 47 preseason snaps, so the adding rushing production should be there this week. Baltimore has a tough pass defense, allowing the third-fewest yards per attempt and 12th-lowest passer rating. The Ravens have surrendered the ninth-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Thompson-Robinson is a QB2 decision left only for Superflex formats. Week 4 Positional Value: QB2

Running Backs

Justice Hill: Hill has been dealing with a foot issue. He didn’t practice on Wednesday before a limited session on Thursday and a full practice on Friday. In Week 2, Hill played 57% of the snaps with 14 touches and 53 total yards. He dominated the routes and the red zone work over Gus Edwards. Among 59 qualifying backs, Hill ranks seventh-best in missed tackles forced per attempt, but he’s another spinning top that ranks 52nd in yards after contact per attempt. The Browns are a great matchup on the ground for Hill. They have allowed the tenth-highest explosive run rate, the second-highest missed tackles allowed per attempt, and the fourth-highest yards after contact per attempt. Hill is a sneaky upside flex play. Week 4 Positional Value: upside RB3

Gus Edwards: In Week 2, while sharing a backfield with Hill, Edwards played 43% of the snaps with ten carries and 62 rushing yards. Edwards lost the route run (ten vs. 23) and red zone (one opportunity vs. three for Hill) battle in Week 2. Edwards’ value will almost exclusively come from his work on the ground. The matchup is a plus for rushing, surprisingly. Among 59 qualifying backs, Edwards ranks 39th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 36th in yards after contact per attempt. Edwards is a low-end flex play. Week 4 Positional Value: RB4

Jerome Ford: Ford’s usage in Week 4 was encouraging despite his lackluster stat line. His two touchdowns saved his day. Ford played 56% of the snaps with 12 touches and 51 total yards. He also led the backfield with a 48.6% route run per team dropback rate. Ford also handled all of the work inside the five-yard line last week. Among qualifying backs, Ford ranks 17th in missed tackles forced per attempt and seventh in yards after contact per attempt. Baltimore will lead to more uphill sledding for Ford in Week 4. The Ravens have surrendered the tenth-lowest explosive run rate, the tenth-lowest yards after contact per attempt, and the fourth-lowest yards per carry to gap runs (Ford 58.5% gap). Week 4 Positional Value: RB3

Kareem Hunt: Hunt remains only a stash. He played 20% of the snaps with seventh touches and 35 total yards. Week 4 Positional Value: Stash/Handcuff only

Wide Receivers

Zay Flowers: Flowers has been the team’s WR1 with a 29.1% Target share (ninth-best) and 36.5% first-read share (tenth-best). The issue has been that his aDOT is the fourth-lowest among 91 qualifying wide receivers, which has contributed to him ranking 32nd in YPRR. Flowers draws tough assignments this week, running about 69% of his routes against Denzel Ward (50% catch rate and 87.5 passer rating) and Martin Emerson Jr. (25% catch rate and 39.9 passer rating). Week 4 Positional Value: WR3 with more PPR appeal

Odell Beckham Jr.: Beckham Jr. has been ruled out (ankle). 

Rashod Bateman: Bateman has been ruled out (hamstring). Sadly, at this point he’s droppable. 

Amari Cooper: Among 91 qualifying wide receivers, Cooper ranks 18th in Target share, seventh in air-yard share, and 19th in YPRR. He is also 19th in first-read share. Cooper will run about 72% of his routes against Brandon Stephens (72.4% catch rate and 90.9 passer rating) and Ronald Darby (50% catch rate and 81.9 passer rating). Week 4 Positional Value: low-end WR2

Elijah Moore: Moore is second on the Browns in Target share (23.5%) and first-read share. He has been utilized in a short-area role that’s not cutting the mustard. Among 87 qualifying wide receivers, he ranks 51st in YAC per reception and 73rd in aDOT. Moore will run about 51% of his routes against Kyle Hamilton in the slot (66.7% catch rate and 70.1 passer rating). Week 4 Positional Value: low upside PPR flex

Donovan Peoples-Jones: Peoples-Jones is droppable. He has only an 8.8% Target share, an 11.1% first-read share, and 0.70 YPRR. Watson has been unable to support any fantasy viable wide receivers outside of Cooper this season. Week 4 Positional Value: Droppable

Tight Ends

Mark Andrews: Andrews has a 20.3% Target share and a 15.4% air-yard share. Among 48 qualifying tight ends, Andrews has the 17th-lowest aDOT while sitting at seventh in first-read share (20.8%). Andrews has drawn only one target in the red zone (Flowers five). Cleveland is a nightmare matchup for tight ends this year. The Browns have allowed the fewest receiving yards, zero touchdowns, and the fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends. Week 4 Positional Value: TE1

David Njoku: Njoku has been a big disappointment this season. Among 48 qualifying tight ends, he ranks 26th in Target share, 45th in air-yard share, and 29th in YPRR. Baltimore has shut down tight ends this season with the second-fewest receiving yards and fantasy points per game allowed to the position. Njoku is now questionable after sustaining burns during a household accident. If Njoku is out, do not stream a CLE tight end. Look for Logan Thomas or Dawson Knox on waivers. Week 4 Positional Value: TE2

DET vs. GB | ATL vs. JAC | MIA vs. BUF | DEN vs. CHI | BAL vs. CLE | CIN vs. TEN | LAR vs. IND | TB vs. NO | WAS vs. PHI | MIN vs. CAR | PIT vs. HOU | LV vs. LAC | NE vs. DAL | ARI vs. SF | KC vs. NYJ | SEA vs. NYG

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Tennessee Titans

Pace and playcalling notes

  • Cincinnati is another card-carrying member of the slow and throw club. They have the 13th-slowest neutral pace while passing at the second-highest rate in neutral game environments.
  • Tennessee is 32nd in neutral pace with the 14th-highest neutral rushing rate.

Quarterbacks

Joe Burrow: Excluding his rough Week 1 outing, we find that Burrow has been playing commendably, with all things considered. He is 11th in passing grade, but the focus because of his health has been to get the ball out quickly on short area routes. He has the third-lowest time to throw, the second-lowest aDOT, and the third-lowest yards per attempt. The Titans’ secondary has not been playing good football, but they could keep Burrow in check this week. Tennessee has given up the fourth-highest yards per attempt, the fifth-highest passer rating, and the sixth-highest adjusted completion rate. The problem for Burrow is that they are not allowing much after the catch. The Titans have permitted the tenth-lowest YAC per reception and missed tackles. They have the fifth-lowest percentage of passing yards after catch allowed. Burrow will have to dink and dunk all day to move the Bengals’ offense against this pass-funnel defense. Week 4 Positional Value: low-end QB1

Ryan Tannehill: Bench Tannehill this week unless you have no other option. He has been a replacement-level quarterback in two of his three starts this season. Excluding his good outing in Week 2, Tannehill has the 12th-lowest passing grade, the fifth-lowest yards per attempt, and the fifth-highest turnover-worthy play rate. The Bengals have held passers to the 12th-lowest passer rating, the fifth-lowest adjusted completion rate, and the 11th-lowest CPOE on deep throws. Week 4 Positional Value: Must-sit

Running Backs

Joe Mixon: Mixon has seen his workload slightly uptick over the last two weeks. He has played at least 75% of the snaps in each of the last two games, averaging 18.5 touches and 82.5 total yards. Among 59 qualifying backs, Mixon ranks 16th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 18th in yards after contact per attempt. Over the last two games, Mixon ranks 13th-best in route run per team drop back rate, but he ranks 27th in Target share and 31st in YPRR. Tennessee remains a brick wall against running backs. They have allowed the second-lowest explosive run rate, boast the fifth-best stuff rate, and the fifth-lowest yards per carry to zone runs (Mixon 55.6% zone). Week 4 Positional Value: Volume-driven RB2

Derrick Henry: Henry is extremely game script-sensitive these days. In the Titans’ two losses, Henry has played 48% and 38% of the snaps, averaging 12 touches and 69.5 total yards. In their one win, Henry logged 71% of the snaps with 28 touches and 95 total yards. The Bengals’ offense will determine how many snaps Henry plays this week. Henry hasn’t looked like the Henry of old this season. Among 59 qualifying running backs, he ranks 36th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 32nd in yards after contact per attempt. His offensive line isn’t helping him at all. Among that same sample of rushers, Henry has seen the 15th-lowest yards before contact per attempt. If Tennessee can keep this game close, Henry could post some nice rushing stats. The Bengals have allowed the fourth-highest explosive run rate and the 14th-highest yards after contact per attempt. Cincinnati has allowed the eighth-highest yards per carry and 11th-highest success rate to gap runs (Henry 52.9% gap). Week 4 Positional Value: low-end RB1

Tyjae Spears: In the Titans’ two losses, Spears has averaged 55% of the snaps, but the volume hasn’t followed with the playing time. He’s averaged only six touches and 13.5 total yards in those games. Spears is best left on the bench. His value remains only as a stash or handcuff. Week 4 Positional Value: Handcuff only

Wide Receivers

Ja’Marr Chase: Chase came alive with 12 grabs and 141 receiving yards last week and he could post similar numbers this week. Chase has a 26.2% Target share, a 36.1% air yard share, and 1.72 YPRR. He also leads the team with a 35.8% first-read share. Against the Titans zone-heavy scheme (58-61% of their corner’s snaps), expect Chase to get fed. Against zone this season, he has a monster 31.3% Target share, 43.1% of the team’s receiving yards, and a 43.4% first-read share. He also leads the team with 2.18 YPRR against zone. Chase will run about 74% of his routes against Sean Murphy-Bunting (69.2% catch rate and 111.7 passer rating) and Kristian Fulton (87.5% catch rate and 158.3 passer rating). Week 4 Positional Value: WR1

Tee Higgins: Higgins had himself a robust game in Week 2, but in the other two weeks, he’s been very disappointing, averaging eight targets and 10.5 receiving yards. Yes, you read that correctly. 10.5 receiving yards per game. Higgins still has a 22.1% Target share and a 43.0% air yard share, but he’s only produced 0.99 YPRR with it. Against zone coverage, Higgins has a 20.5% Target share and a 39.8% air yard share this season, which are strong numbers. His first read rate is substantially behind Chase, with a 26.4% mark. Higgins will run about 85% of his routes against Murphy-Bunting and Fulton. Week 4 Positional Value: WR2/3

Tyler Boyd: Boyd remains a ghost in this offense. Against zone coverage, he has a 9.6% Target share and a 6.9% air yard share. He has only mustered 0.67 YPRR and a 13.2% first-read share. Boyd will run about 89% of his routes against Roger McCreary (68.4% catch rate and 86.5 passer rating). Week 4 Positional Value: WR5 / Matchup-based flex play

DeAndre Hopkins: Hopkins has a 28.9% Target share and a 37.5% air yard share, which are fantastic usage numbers. His efficiency numbers are more in line with WR3 production, as he’s 33rd in receiving grade and 30th in YPRR. Hopkins has two red zone targets so far this season. Hopkins will run about 67% of his routes against Chidobe Awuzie (80% catch rate and 135.4 passer rating) and Cam Taylor-Britt (56.3% catch rate and 83.6 passer rating). The Bengals have allowed only two receiving touchdowns to wide receivers this season (ninth-fewest). Week 4 Positional Value: Volume-driven WR3

Treylon Burks: Burks has been ruled out (knee).

Tight Ends

CIN TEs: No CIN tight end has eclipsed a 12% Target share or 1.1 YPRR. Only Irv Smith has run more than 60% of the team’s routes per dropback. Fade CIN tight ends. All are must-sits.

Chigoziem Okonkwo: Small sample size efficiency hype at the tight end position looks to be failing us again in 2023. Last year, it was Albert Okwuegbunam that led us astray. This season, so far, it’s looking like Oknokwo will be it. Oknokwo has a 12.0% Target share, a 13.1% first-read share, and only 0.68 YPRR this year. He hasn’t drawn an endzone or red zone target this season. The matchup is nice for Oknokwo this week, so he does fall into the streaming category. The Bengals have been a good matchup for tight ends over the last three years. This season, they have allowed the seventh-most receptions, the tenth-highest yards per reception, and the sixth-most fantasy points to tight ends. Week 4 Positional Value: Matchup-based TE2 streaming option

DET vs. GB | ATL vs. JAC | MIA vs. BUF | DEN vs. CHI | BAL vs. CLE | CIN vs. TEN | LAR vs. IND | TB vs. NO | WAS vs. PHI | MIN vs. CAR | PIT vs. HOU | LV vs. LAC | NE vs. DAL | ARI vs. SF | KC vs. NYJ | SEA vs. NYG

Los Angeles Rams vs. Indianapolis Colts

Pace and playcalling notes

  • Los Angeles continues to blow preseason expectations of the water. They are tenth in neutral pace and sixth in neutral passing rate.
  • This is the speed racer game of the week, with both teams operating at breakneck paces. The Colts lead the NFL in neutral pace while ranking 14th in neutral passing rate.

Quarterbacks

Matthew Stafford: Stafford continues to look like a quarterback that is still in his prime. He ranks sixth in passing grade, ninth in yards per attempt, and first in big-time throw rate. The Colts are an advantageous matchup for the strong armed veteran. Indy has allowed the eighth-highest yards per attempt and passer rating. The Colts have given up the fourth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Week 4 Positional Value: QB1

Anthony Richardson: Richardson remains a work in progress as a passer, ranking 28th in passing grade and 16th in adjusted completion rate. In fantasy, he remains a must-start QB1. He ranks first in fantasy points per dropback, with his legs doing the heavy lifting. He is fifth in carries per game, first in red zone carries, and fourth in rushing yards per game. The Rams have been a spunky pass defense. They are also outplaying preseason expectations. Los Angeles has held passers to the seventh-lowest yards per attempt, the sixth-lowest passer rating, and the fourth-lowest adjusted completion rate. Richardson will be forced to compensate with rushing yards to aid his fantasy day. A big concern for Richardson this week is that his offensive line is incredibly banged up. Quenton Nelson didn’t practice on Wednesday and Thursday (toe) and has been listed as questionable. Starting tackle Bernhard Raimann has been ruled out with a concussion. Their center, Ryan Kelly, has also been ruled out with a concussion. The Rams are 20th in pressure rate this season, but that number could be higher this week against an offensive line largely composed of backups. Los Angeles ranked fourth among pressure rates in Week 1 and 16th in Week 2, so this pass rush is being underrated by some if you’re just looking at season-long numbers. Richardson has the lowest aDOT and the 12th-lowest yards per attempt when pressured. Week 4 Positional Value: low-end QB1

Running Backs

Kyren Williams: Williams has been Sean McVay’s new “Todd Gurley.” He has played at least 95% of the snaps in each of the last two games, averaging 16 touches and 82.5 total yards. His role has been impressive, but his level of play hasn’t been. Among 59 qualifying backs, he is 48th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 42nd in yards after contact per attempt. Over the last two weeks, he has led all running backs with a 77% route run per team dropback rate. In that same span, he’s second in Target share (18.2%), but he’s only 31st in YPRR. With his every snap role and pass game usage, he’s an every-week RB1, but this matchup will be tough. Indy has allowed the 13th-lowest explosive run rate while having the eighth-highest stuff rate. They have held backs to the 12th-lowest yards after contact per attempt. The Colts have allowed the sixth-highest yards per reception to running backs, so that’s a small feather in Williams’ cap. Week 4 Positional Value: RB1

Zack Moss: If you had told me that at Week 4, I would be writing up Kyren Williams and Zack Moss as two bell cows in the same, I probably would have called you a liar, but here we are. In each of the last two games, Moss has played at least 76% of the snaps while averaging 27 touches and 126 total yards. Moss ranks first in opportunity share, but he’s also 40th in weighted opportunity as the RB6 in fantasy. Moss is a “spinning top” back. While he ranks 13th in missed tackles forced per attempt, he is also 30th in explosive run rate and 40th in yards after contact per attempt. He has always been skilled as a tackle-breaker, but he lacks the juice to get much after he slings a defender to the ground. Moss faces a pliable run defense this week. Los Angeles has given up the 13th-highest explosive run rate, the tenth-highest yards after contact per attempt, and the fourth-highest yards per carry to zone runs (5.32). 85% of Moss’s runs have been on zone plays. Week 4 Positional Value: RB1

Wide Receivers

Puka Nacua: Nacua is the WR7 in fantasy, commanding a 31.7% Target share (fourth-best) and a 31.3% air-yard share. He ranks 12th in YPRR and fourth in first-read share. All of those numbers should bump even higher this week against Indy’s zone-centric defense (at least 80% of their corner’s snaps). Against zone, Nacua has a 37.0% Target share, a 38.1% air-yard share, and a 43.9% first-read share (3.44 YPRR!). Nacua will run about 63% of his routes against Juju Brents (60% catch rate and 67.1 passer rating) and Dallis Flowers (61.5% catch rate and 107.2 passer rating). Get ready to shotgun a gallon of Puka Juice this week in celebration of another banner day. Week 4 Positional Value: Locked-in WR1

Tutu Atwell: Atwell has also been a happy surprise for the Rams and fantasy gamers this season with a 20.6% Target share, a 31.9% air yard share, and 1.97 YPRR. Atwell’s numbers drop some when the Rams face zone as he has a 16.3% Target share, a 23.4% air yard share, and 1.76 YPRR. The passing offense has condensed around Nacua against zone. Atwell could eat into that monster Target share as we move through the season to keep the teams honest. Beating off coverage should not be a problem for Atwell. He will run about 55% of his routes against Brents and Flowers. Week 4 Positional Value: WR3

Van Jefferson: If you still have Jefferson on any roster, drop him. He has only managed a 9.6% Target share and 10% TPRR this season. His 0.66 YPRR should not be on any fantasy team. Week 4 Positional Value: Droppable

Michael Pittman: Pittman has a 28.4% Target share and a 27.1% air-yard share with 1.96 YPRR. If we’re staying on the train and riding with the biggest surprises of the 2023 season so far, Pittman has to be among them. He is the WR12 in fantasy. Richardson being a better passer than many gave him credit for in the predraft process has helped fuel this production. The Rams have utilized zone coverage on 52-56% of their corner’s snaps. Against zone, Pittman’s Target share has increased to 28.6%, and his first read share has climbed from 36.3% to an insane 41.2%. Pittman will run about 75% of his routes against Ahkello Witherspoon (38.5% catch rate and 22.0 passer rating) and Derion Kendrick (40% catch rate and 70.1 passer rating). Week 4 Positional Value: WR2

Josh Downs: Downs has played solidly as Indy’s starting slot. He has a 19.0% Target share with 1.38 YPRR and a 20% first-read share. Against zone coverage this season, all of those numbers have dipped. Against off-coverage, Downs has a 16.9% Target share with 1.1 YPRR and a 15.7% first-read share. This isn’t an encouraging trend. The passing attack has condensed around Pittman when the team has seen zone. Downs will match up Cobie Durant this week (71.4% catch rate and 101.5 passer rating). Downs has only one less red zone target (three) than the team leader Pittman (four). Week 4 Positional Value: WR4/5

Alec Pierce: Pierce has been droppable. He has only a 10.3% Target share in which he’s produced 0.73 YPRR. Pierce will run about 94% of his routes against Witherspoon and Kendrick. Week 4 Positional Value: Droppable

Tight Ends

Tyler Higbee: Higbee has an 11.1% Target share and a 15.4% first-read share. Those numbers stay relatively stagnant against zone coverage, as he has a 10.9% Target share and a 15.8% first-read share. The same can be said with his YPRR, which only marginally climbs from 1.19 to 1.27. The matchup is favorable for Higbee, though, as Indy has allowed the 11th-highest yards per reception and the eighth-most receiving yards to tight ends. Higbee has been listed as questionable with an Achilles issue. He didn’t practice until Friday (limited). Week 4 Positional Value: Borderline TE1

Kylen Granson: Granson has a 12.1% Target share and a 59.5% route run per team dropback rate. Neither of these usage metrics is extremely appealing, even if the matchup was right for Granson (which it’s not). Sit Granson against a Rams secondary that has held tight ends to the tenth-fewest receiving yards and the eighth-fewest fantasy points. Week 4 Positional Value: Must-sit TE2

DET vs. GB | ATL vs. JAC | MIA vs. BUF | DEN vs. CHI | BAL vs. CLE | CIN vs. TEN | LAR vs. IND | TB vs. NO | WAS vs. PHI | MIN vs. CAR | PIT vs. HOU | LV vs. LAC | NE vs. DAL | ARI vs. SF | KC vs. NYJ | SEA vs. NYG

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New Orleans Saints

Pace and playcalling notes

  • Tampa Bay has the tenth-slowest neutral pace and the ninth-highest neutral rushing rate.
  • In the second half of last week’s game, the Saints ranked 12th in pace and 23rd passing rate. The pace was in line with the Saints’ approach in Weeks 1-2 (ninth-best in pace), but they leaned more on the run with Jameis Winston (third in passing rate in Weeks 1-2).

Quarterbacks

Baker Mayfield: Mayfield is playing his best football in quite some time. He’s eighth in passing grade, 17th in adjusted completion rate, and 14th in yards per attempt. This has led to QB19 production in fantasy. New Orleans is arguably the toughest test that he’s had yet. The Saints have held quarterbacks to the fourth-lowest yards per attempt and passer rating. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged the tenth-fewest fantasy points against this defense. Week 4 Positional Value: low-end QB2

Derek Carr: Carr looks to be starting this week. His season hasn’t been so far, as he’s trying to get on the same page with his receivers. Add in the shoulder issue, and he is a shaky QB2, but he carries some upside this week. Carr is 25th in passing grade, but he is also sixth in big-time throw rate and first in deep ball rate. Despite the shoulder issue, look for Carr to challenge Tampa Bay deep this week. Tampa Bay has been a tough pass defense, allowing the seventh-lowest yards per attempt, the eighth-lowest adjusted completion rate, and the tenth-lowest passer rating. The one silver lining is their problems with stopping the deep ball. Tampa Bay has given up the 11th-highest passer rating, the second-most passing touchdowns, and the eighth-highest adjusted completion rate on throws 20 yards or higher downfield. Week 4 Positional Value: low-end QB2

Running Backs

Rachaad White: White has received all the volume he can handle in a workhorse role. The problem is that he’s done nothing with it. He has played at least 72% of the snaps in each game (91% last week), averaging 19.3 touches and 71.3 total yards. White is the RB23 in fantasy. He has not recorded an explosive run yet. Among 59 qualifying running backs, he ranks 41st in missed tackles forced per attempt and 46th in yards after contact per attempt. The Saints could assist White in posting his best game of the season this week. New Orleans has permitted the seventh-highest explosive run rate, the 12th-most missed tackles, and the 12th-highest yards after contact per attempt. They have also given up the fifth-highest yards per carry to gap runs (White 50% gap). Week 4 Positional Value: low-end RB2

Alvin Kamara: Last year, Kamara was the RB13 in fantasy points per game and the RB7 in expected fantasy points per game. He was fourth in opportunity share and first in snap share. I won’t be surprised if the Saints feed him an RB1-level workload out the gate in his first game back. Last season, among 42 qualified backs, Kamara ranked 23rd in missed tackles forced per attempt and 32nd in yards after contact per attempt. Those are not good, Bob. Not good at all. Let’s hope that Kamara flashes some of his former juice more regularly in 2023. The matchup with week is a good one for him to start this season on the right foot. Tampa Bay has allowed the 14th-highest explosive run rate while managing the tenth-lowest stuff rate. The Buccaneers are also bleeding out the ninth-highest yards after contact per attempt and the sixth-highest yards per carry to zone runs (5.0). Last year, 58.7% of Karama’s runs were on zone plays. Tampa Bay has also surrendered the 11th-highest yards per reception to backs, so expect Kamara to have a few nice plays when Winston throws to him. Kamara gets another bump with how banged up the interior of the Bucs defense is this week. Calijah Kancey (DT) has been ruled out. Vita Vea didn’t practice (limited) until Friday and has been listed as questionable. Devin White didn’t practice on Wednesday (foot) and only managed limited sessions on Thursday and Friday. Week 4 Positional Value: RB1

Kendre Miller: Last week, Miller made his debut with 34% of the snaps with ten touches and 34 total yards. Among 65 qualifying running backs, he ranks 38th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 13th in yards after contact per attempt. Miller is a must-sit until we see what his role is working in tandem with Kamara. Week 4 Positional Value: Must-sit

Wide Receivers

Mike Evans: Evans colorful and underperforming history against Marshon Lattimore needs no massive explanation besides the tweet above. Since 2020, in the four games in which Lattimore shadowed him and they both played the entire game, Evans secured three touchdowns, but he failed to cross 50 receiving yards in every game but one. Evans has been playing quite well this year with Mayfield which I can honestly tell you I didn’t see coming. Evans is the WR6 in fantasy commanding a 29.0% Target share, a 51.4% air yard share, and a 37.3% first-read share. Lattimore has already shadowed once this season holding DeAndrew Hopkins to four targets, two receptions, and 24 receiving yards (followed on 42% of routes). Lattimore is in mid-season form allowing a 41.7% catch rate and 20.8 passer rating in coverage. Drop Evans in your rankings. Week 4 Positional Value: WR3

Chris Godwin: Godwin ha a 19.4% Target share, a 23.9% air-yard share, and a 25.4% first-read share. Tampa Bay has him running more routes on the perimeter this year. Godwin ranks 23rd in receiving grade and 43rd in YPRR (among 87 qualifying wideouts). Godwin leads the team with five red zone targets. If Lattimore is in Evans’ back pocket all day that means Godwin will see Isacc Yiadom (36.4% catch rate and 75.2 passer rating). Week 4 Positional Value: WR2/3

Chris Olave: Olave has been amazing this season. He has a 30.8% Target share, a 40.3% air-yard share, and a 35.2% first-read share (leads the team). The budding superstar ranks third and seventh in receiving grade and YPRR among 87 qualifying wide receivers. He also leads the NFL in deep targets as the WR15 in fantasy. If Winston is looking to take advantage of the Bucs’ deep passing defense problems, Olave will be involved. Against zone coverage (TB corners 64-83% zone) Olave leads the team with a 28.6% Target share, 2.86 YPRR, and a 33.3% first read share. Olave will run about 55% of his routes against Carlton Davis (66.7% catch rate and 103.5 passer rating) and Zyon McCollum (66.7% catch rate and 83.6 passer rating). Week 4 Positional Value: WR1

Michael Thomas: Thomas has a 23.1% Target share and a 21.5% air yard share as he’s been the underneath weapon for the Saints (8.5 aDOT). Thomas is ranked 47th in receiving grade and 45th in YPRR. He leads the team with five red zone targets, although he has failed to secure one for a touchdown yet. Thomas might not be vintage Thomas, but he’s still a solid NFL receiver that complements Olave well. Against zone coverage this season (TB corners 64-83% zone) Thomas ranks second with a 22.1% Target share and a 27.8% first read share. Thomas will run about 69% of his routes against Carlton Davis (66.7% catch rate and 103.5 passer rating) and Zyon McCollum (66.7% catch rate and 83.6 passer rating). Week 4 Positional Value: WR3

Rashid Shaheed: Shaheed made his presence felt last week with a 76-yard punt return for a touchdown. He failed to secure either of his two targets, so he goose-egged the boxscore. Shaheed played his highest snap count of the year last week (72%). Derek Carr short-armed a deep ball last week that could have been a walk-in touchdown, but Shaheed had to run back to the ball and break up a possible interception. If Olave isn’t doing damage downfield this week, then Shaheed will. He is second on the team with five deep targets. Shaheed has an 11.5% Target share, a 24.2% air yard share, and a 19.3 aDOT. Olave leads the team in YPRR (2.86) against zone coverage (TB 61-73% zone), but Shaheed isn’t far behind with 2.51 YPRR. Shaheed will run about 61% of his routes against Carlton Davis (66.7% catch rate and 103.5 passer rating) and Zyon McCollum (66.7% catch rate and 83.6 passer rating). Week 4 Positional Value: WR4 with WR2 upside

Tight Ends

Cade Otton: Do not play Otton. Never play tight ends against New Orleans. Yes, I’ll keep preaching it weekly because it’s real. The Saints have allowed the fifth-lowest fantasy points, the sixth-fewest receiving yards, and zero touchdowns to tight ends this season. Week 4 Positional Value: Must-sit

Juwan Johnson: Johnson has been a contributor to this passing attack with a 65.1% route run rate, an 11.7% Target share, and an 11.1% first read share. Among 40 qualifying tight ends, Johnson ranks 32nd in receiving grade and 31st in YPRR. Johnson has only one red-zone look this season. Tampa Bay has allowed the 14th-most receiving yards and the seventh-lowest yards per reception to tight ends. Week 4 Positional Value: Low-end TE2

Taysom Hill: Last week, Hill saw his role dry up as he played only 30% of the snaps with five touches and 21 total yards. In two games against this defense last season, he did manage one fantasy-friendly outing with five touches, 45 total yards, and a score. He’s a weekly dice roll if you need the random shot at upside at the tight end position. Week 4 Positional Value: TE2 dice roll

DET vs. GB | ATL vs. JAC | MIA vs. BUF | DEN vs. CHI | BAL vs. CLE | CIN vs. TEN | LAR vs. IND | TB vs. NO | WAS vs. PHI | MIN vs. CAR | PIT vs. HOU | LV vs. LAC | NE vs. DAL | ARI vs. SF | KC vs. NYJ | SEA vs. NYG

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Derek Brown

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Derek Brown is a senior fantasy football analyst at FantasyPros.

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