Indianapolis Colts vs. Houston Texans

• HOU -1, O/U 39.5
• Colts vs. Texans Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Shane Steichen is our king. Indy was fifth in neutral pace and 11th in neutral passing rate in Week 1. Anthony Richardson to the moon.
• This could be the fastest pace game of the week. I know that will shock many, but it’s true. Houston blew the doors off my expectations ranking third in neutral pace and seventh in neutral passing rate.

Quarterbacks

Anthony Richardson: The Anthony Richardson show began with a bang. Richardson was the QB4 in fantasy in Week 1. We saw glimpses of the rushing upside with ten carries for 40 yards on the ground. Only one of those runs was a designed carry (four scrambles). Richardson has some growth needed as a passer, but we already knew that. He was 25th in passing grade, 16th in adjusted completion rate, and 15th in yards per attempt. Richardson is a QB1. He faces a Houston secondary that allowed the seventh-highest yards per attempt and second-highest adjusted completion rate last week. Another feather in Richardson’s cap is that Houston gave up an 88.9% completion rate on play-action throws in Week 1. Richardson was tied for fifth-most play-action pass attempts in Week 1.

C.J. Stroud: Stroud didn’t have the same fast start as Richardson. He was 21st in passing grade, 18th in adjusted completion rate, and had the 11th-lowest yards per attempt in Week 1. However, Stroud gets an easier test in Week 2 against the Colts. Last week, Indy permitted the ninth-highest yards per attempt, seventh-highest passer rating, and the sixth-highest adjusted completion rate. Stroud is a QB2 that could post QB1 numbers this week. Stroud was added to the injury report late in the week with a right shoulder injury. He’s been listed as questionable. If he’s out, downgrade the entire offense. Make sure you have a backup plan in Superflex leagues. 

Running Backs

Deon Jackson: Jackson put the “volume is king” slogan to the test last week. He played 71% of the snaps with 18 touches but only finished with 28 scoreless yards. He finished with 1.62 yards after contact per attempt and 0.48 yards per route run. This isn’t good, no matter how you slice it. With Zack Moss back this week, Jackson will either work in tandem with Moss or be firmly planted on the bench. Jackson is a must-bench player, regardless of the outcome.

Zack Moss: With Jackson stinking it up last week and Evan Hull on the IR, this looks like Moss’s backfield for the taking. Last year, in his brief run as the Colts’ starter, he averaged 16.3 touches and 88.3 total yards. In 2022, he was 22nd in yards after contact per attempt, 23rd in breakaway run rate, and fourth in elusive rating (minimum 90 carries). He was a zero in the passing game with 0.40 yards per route run. Last year, Moss was 50/50 with a near-even split of zone and gap runs. In Week 1, Jackson saw 84% of his runs on zone concept plays. While Moss doesn’t likely get that far of a lean with zone runs, I think the shift leans more toward zone runs for him this week. The Texans allowed the seventh-lowest yards per carry to zone runs in Week 1. They also held Baltimore to the 12th-lowest yards before and after contact per attempt. This is all very discouraging for Moss when you also pair it with the fact that Indy’s offensive line did Jackson no favors last week. Indy had the tenth-lowest yards before contact per attempt generated last week. Moss is an RB3.

Dameon Pierce: Houston didn’t make Pierce their workhorse like I had hoped. In Week 1, he played 45% of the snaps with 13 touches and 47 total yards. He had a 28% route run per team dropback rate as Mike Boone (26%) and Devin Singletary (7.5%) also got into the mix. Pierce ranked 14th in yards after contact per attempt and 21st in MTF per attempt among 55 qualifying running backs in Week 1. His offensive line didn’t do him any favors, as he dealt with the 17th-lowest yards before contact per attempt. Pierce has a decent matchup against the Colts this week. In Week 1, Indy allowed the 14th-highest yards after contact per attempt. Still, they also permitted the sixth-lowest yards before contact per attempt. The Colts gave up the sixth-highest yards per carry to zone runs (Pierce 72% zone in Week 1). Pierce is an RB2/3.

Wide Receivers

Michael Pittman: Pittman was the alpha in this passing attack in Week 1. Pittman was 16th in first-read share among wide receivers. He commanded a 28.2% target share and a 29.3% air yard share with 2.31 yards per route run. Pittman is a WR2/3 who will run about 78% of his routes against Derek Stingley (67.3% catch rate and 84.9 passer rating allowed in 2022) and Steven Nelson (60% catch rate and 78.3 passer rating allowed in 2022).

Nico Collins: Collins had a breakout in Week 1. He garnered a 25% target share with a 64.2% air yard share and 33.3 first-read share. Collins churned out 2.42 yards per route run on his 11 targets. He was third in air yards among wide receivers behind only Tyreek Hill and Kendrick Bourne in Week 1. Collins will run about 75% of his routes against Dallis Flowers (64.3% catch rate and 122.0 passer rating allowed in his career) and Darrell Baker Jr. (66.7% catch rate and 138.2 passer rating allowed). Collins is a WR3 with WR2 upside.

Robert Woods: Woods saw a 22.7% target share and 28.8% air yard share in Week 1. With his 7.4 aDOT he mustered 1.58 yards per route run. Woods is a WR3/4 that will run about 77% of his routes against Flowers and Baker Jr. Woods might be older, but he’s not dust. Last year, he was 15th in open score, immediately ahead of Drake London.

Tank Dell: With Noah Brown headed to the IR, Dell should see an uptick in his 41% route run per team dropback rate in Week 1. Dell had a 9.1% target share in Week 1 while playing 77% of his snaps on the perimeter. He could take over the slot role from Brown, but Dell played 75% of his snaps on the boundary in the preseason. Dell’s not a player to start this week because his role is up in the air, but his 2.95 yards per route run in the preseason is for real. He’s a talented player to stash immediately.

Tight Ends

Kylen Granson: Granson’s Week 1 usage was intriguing. He had a 70% route per team dropback rate with a 15.4% target share and 18% TPRR. He spent 57% of his snaps from the slot. This isn’t the matchup to look to get cute and toss him into a starting lineup. Demeco Ryans’ new-look defense held Isaiah Likely to only four receiving yards in Week 1. Toughness against tight ends has been a staple of Ryans’ defenses. In his two previous seasons with the 49ers, his defense allowed the sixth and eighth fewest fantasy points to the position. Granson is a TE2 better left on the bench in Week 2.

Dalton Schultz: Schultz had a disappointing Week 1 with only a 9.1% target share despite a 77% route per team dropback rate. Schultz is a TE2 who could return TE1 production this week, though. Gus Bradley’s defense habitually allows nice stat lines to opposing tight ends. Last year, the Colts allowed the ninth-most receiving touchdowns (tied) to tight ends. In 2021, when he was with the Raiders, he gave up the eighth-most receiving yards and third-most fantasy points to the position.

San Francisco 49ers vs. Los Angeles Rams

• SF -7.5, O/U 45.5
• 49ers vs. Rams Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• The 49ers turned over a new leaf in 2023. They have become the new-look Packers in that they went pass-heavy despite running a ridiculously slow offense. The 49ers were 32nd in neutral pace in Week 1, but they were also 13th in neutral passing rate.
• The Rams will contribute to the stuck-in-the-mud play volume in this game. In Week 1, they were the ninth-slowest team in neutral situations while ranking 19th in neutral passing rate.

Quarterbacks

Brock Purdy: Purdy quickly put any doubts about his arm to rest. In Week 1, he was the QB10 in fantasy, ranking 11th in passing grade, eighth in yards per attempt, and eighth in adjusted completion rate. The Rams utilized zone coverage on 50-61% of their corner’s snaps in Week 1. Last year, Purdy was fourth in yards per attempt and passer rating against zone. Purdy is a QB2 with QB1 upside this week.

Matthew Stafford: Stafford proved he’s not over the hill in Week 1. He was second in passing grade, fourth in yards per attempt, and second in big-time throw rate. With a cast of unproven characters, he tossed for the third-most yards (340) of the week. In Week 2, we will find just how good Stafford and the Rams’ offensive line are at this juncture. The 49ers ranked second in pressure rate in Week 1 despite only blitzing on 13.5% of their snaps. Over his last four starts against the 49ers, Stafford has completed 65.5% of his passes with 6.0 yards per attempt and a 5:5 passing touchdown to interception ratio. The 49ers destroyed Kenny Pickett in Week 1, allowing the sixth-lowest yards per attempt, seventh-lowest passer rating, and 11th-lowest adjusted completion rate. Stafford is a QB2.

Running Backs

Christian McCaffrey: It’s CMC. Start him. #analysis. Seriously though. What could I say here to convince you to sit him? Nothing. Absolutely nothing. The Rams had the third-lowest stuff rate while allowing the highest yards before contact per attempt in Week 1. McCaffrey CRUSH!

Week 1

Cam Akers: Akers played 35% of the snaps in Week 1, with a final stat line of 22 carries for 29 rushing yards. If that isn’t the perfect Matt Asiata stat line, I don’t know what is. That makes me sad, but it’s true. His 1.68 yards after contact per attempt and 38.2 elusive rating are the things of nightmares. Akers is a sit. A must-sit. The 49ers’ run defense is no joke. Aker’s value at this point entirely relies upon his ability in the rushing department. Last year, San Francisco allowed the lowest explosive run rate while having the fifth-highest stuff rate. The 49ers allowed the lowest fantasy points per game to running backs last season.

Kyren Williams: Williams played 65% of the snaps in Week 1 with 15 touches and 52 total yards. He dominated routes and red zone opportunities over Akers. Williams has the fourth-highest route run per team dropback rate of Week 1 behind only Bijan Robinson, Christian McCaffrey, and Travis Etienne. Williams had the 22nd-best missed tackles forced per attempt rate and the 17th-best yards after contact per attempt among 55 qualifying running backs in Week 1. Williams could push for an even higher snap rate this week if the Rams are trailing the entire game. Williams is an RB3 with RB2 upside.

Wide Receivers

Weeks 14-18 with Purdy vs. zone coverage

Deebo Samuel: Aiyuk had a smash week to open the season. Guess what? This week, it’s Samuel’s turn. With the Rams utilizing zone at such a high rate, this game should be dominated by Samuel, who led the team in target share and TPRR against zone with Purdy under center last season. Samuel was also second on the team in YPRR against the coverage type in that span. Samuel will run about 58% of his routes against Derion Kendrick (67.2% catch rate and 114.2 passer rating allowed in his career) and Ahkello Witherspoon (75.9% catch rate and 128.4 passer rating allowed in 2022). Samuel is a WR2 with big-time WR1 upside in Week 2.

Brandon Aiyuk: Aiyuk was dominant in Week 1 as the WR2 in fantasy scoring. Last year, Aiyuk took a backseat to Samuel against zone coverage, though. He was third on the team in target share against zone with Purdy under center and fourth in TPRR. Aiyuk will run about 73% of his routes this week against Kendrick and Witherspoon as a WR2.

Rookie WR Puka Nacua (oblique) will be listed as questionable for Sunday’s game against the 49ers, but Sean McVay said the Rams are expecting him to be ready to go.

— Sarah Barshop (@sarahbarshop) September 15, 2023

Puka Nacua: My man. The myth. The legend. Puka Nacua. He played an altered Cooper Kupp role in Week 1. Nacua soaked up a 39.5% target share and 42.9% first-read target share while playing 70% of his snaps on the perimeter. Nacua was seventh in receiving grade and fifth in yards per route run. Deny his talent all you want. Trust me, I heard everyone clapping back about him all offseason, but now Puka has shown you what he can do. You don’t earn this type of volume without being a VERY talented player. Nacua is a WR2/3 that will run about 70% of his routes against Charvarius Ward (58.5% catch rate and 89.8 passer rating allowed in 2022) and Deommodore Lenoir (67.3% catch rate and 84.0 passer rating allowed last year). Nacua has been listed as questionable (oblique), but he’s expected to play. 

Tutu Atwell: Don’t let Atwell’s stellar Week 1 get overshadowed here. He saw a 21.1% target share and a 29.5% air yard share, producing 3.61 yards per route run. Atwell was second in first-read target share with 28.6%. Sean McVay utilized him in motion and in bunch formations in Week 1 to get him free releases off the line. I expect much of the same this week. He’ll run about 51% of his routes against Ward and Lenoir as a WR3/4.

Van Jefferson: Jefferson is JAG. He’s not worth starting and is droppable at this point. Alongside Nacua and Atwell, he could only siphon off a 13.2% target share, a 4.8% first-read share, and 0.67 yards per route run. Woof.

Tight Ends

George Kittle: Despite being less than 100%, Kittle had a 76% route per team dropback rate in Week 1 with a 20.7% target share and 23% TPRR. Last year, with Purdy as the starter, Kittle posted strong numbers against zone coverage (Rams 60-61% zone in Week 1). He had a 22.2% target share, 24% TPRR, and 2.36 YPRR while ranking second on the team in receiving yardage percent and leading the team with an eye-popping 66.7% touchdown percentage. Kittle is a strong TE1 facing off against a Rams defense that allowed the 13th-highest yards per reception and seventh-most receiving touchdowns (tied) last year.

Tyler Higbee: In a smash matchup against Seattle last week, Higbee took a backseat to the Rams’ young wide receivers. Higbee had a 74% route per team dropback rate while only seeing a 7.9% target share and 10% TPRR. Higbee’s route share will remain high all season, and he’ll have TE1 weeks, but this isn’t one of them. The 49ers have been tough on tight ends. Last year, they allowed the 11th-lowest receiving yard, sixth-lowest yards per reception, and eighth-fewest fantasy points to the position. Higbee is a TE2.

New York Giants vs. Arizona Cardinals

• NYG -4, O/U 39.5
• Giants vs. Cardinals Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Toss the Giants’ Week 1 performance in the trash. They got crushed and tried to protect Daniel Jones from the Dallas pass rush. New York had the fifth-slowest neutral pace while running the ball on 69.2% of their neutral situation plays (easily tops in the NFL).
• Arizona had the 14th-lowest neutral pace in Week 1 while ranking 17th in neutral passing rate.

Quarterbacks

Daniel Jones: Well, Jones has nowhere to go but up. Right? Week 1 was an abysmal failure against a monstrous defense in Dallas. Jones finished the week with the second-lowest passing grade, third-lowest yards per attempt, and fifth-lowest adjusted completion rate. Jones was destroyed by the Cowboys’ pass rush, facing the sixth-highest pressure rate and fourth-most quarterback knockdowns. Luckily for Jones, that shouldn’t be a problem against the Cardinals, who ranked 22nd in pressure rate last week while also sitting at 20th in blitz rate. The Cardinals allowed the 12th-highest yards per attempt and tenth-highest adjusted completion rate last week. Arizona deployed zone coverage on 58% of their cornerback’s snaps in Week 1. Last year, Jones wasn’t stellar against zone, ranking 16th in adjusted completion rate and 23rd in passer rating. He was, however, second in scrambles and fourth in rushing yards among quarterbacks. His rushing will have to compensate for any shortcomings as a passer, but that’s possible for Jones. He’s a QB2 with QB1 upside if he runs this week.

Joshua Dobbs: Dobbs is a low-level QB2. Even in Superflex leagues, you’re likely better off starting a positional player over Dobbs. Last week, he had the sixth-lowest passing grade, 12th-lowest adjusted completion rate, and fifth-lowest yards per attempt. While the Giants aren’t a marvelous defense, stopping this anemic offense won’t take much. New York allowed the 13th-lowest yards per attempt last week while also sitting at 16th in adjusted completion rate allowed. They blitzed at the tenth-highest rate but were only 25th in pressure rate.

Running Backs

Saquon Barkley: Last week, Barkley played 64% of the snaps with 15 touches and 63 total yards. He was 16th in yards after contact per attempt but only 40th in elusive rating among 55 qualifying running backs. Barkley is a volume-fueled RB1 taking on what could be an improved Arizona Cardinals run defense. Last year, Arizona was dreadful against the run, giving up the fourth-highest explosive run rate and second-highest touchdown rate. After one game, this defense allowed the seventh-lowest yards after contact per attempt, with the eighth-lowest missed tackles allowed per attempt. For now, we’ll approach this like it’s a neutral matchup until we have more weeks to tell the tale.

James Conner: Conner is the desert dumpster fire bellcow. He played 84% of the snaps in Week 1 with 19 touches and 70 total yards. Conner ranked 18th in yards after contact per attempt in Week 1 among 55 qualifying running backs, but he didn’t force one missed tackle. Despite Conner’s shortcomings and the surrounding offense, he should have a productive day in Week 2. New York allowed the third-highest explosive run rate and fifth-lowest stuff rate last year. In Week 1, 64% of Conner’s runs were on gap-designed plays. Last season, New York was tied for the highest yards per carry allowed to gap runs (5.95). Conner is an RB2 with RB1 upside.

Wide Receivers

Parris Campbell: Campbell and Darius Slayton were the only wide receivers with higher than 60% route per team dropback rates in Week 1. The Giants had five wide receivers with at least a 20.5% share. Campbell had a 13.3% target share last week with only a 17.6% first-read share. Campbell will run about 73% of his routes this week against Jalen Thompson (63.6% catch rate and 111.6 passer rating allowed in 2022). Campbell is a WR5/6 with upside this week. If the Giants’ offense can get on track, he can have a strong week against this terrible secondary.

Darius Slayton: Slayton had only a 63% route per team dropback rate in Week. Like Campbell, he saw a 13.3% target share (24.4% air yard share). The big difference between these two players is Slayton’s aDOT was a respectable 8.0, while Campbell’s was 4.0. Slayton had a 17.6% first-read share. He’ll run about 71% of his routes on the perimeter against Marco Wilson (66.9% catch rate and 106.3 passer rating allowed in his career) and Kei’Trel Clark (80% catch rate and 97.5 passer rating allowed). Slayton is a WR5/6 with upside. If you are picking between Campbell and Slayton this week for a deep league flex dart throw, my money is on Slayton.

Marquise Brown: Brown had a 16.7% target share last week with a 26.0% air yard share. His 21.7% first-read share was second on the team behind only Ertz. Brown is a WR4/5 who will run about 84% of his routes against Adoree’ Jackson (57.8% catch rate and 85.9 passer rating allowed in 2022) and Tre Hawkins (rookie with only one target defended in his career).

Tight Ends

Darren Waller: Waller’s Week 1 numbers are noisy. He entered the week nursing a hamstring issue. Then the Giants got blown out impressively by Dallas, so we have no clue if his usage numbers would have been different in a close contest. Waller had a 52% route per team dropback rate with a 16.7% target share and 30.5% air yard share. He was targeted on 22% of his routes with 1.57 YPRR. Outside of the route run number, the rest of his metrics are perfectly fine. He exited Week 1 ranked tenth in receiving grade and sixth in yards per route run. Assuming health isn’t an issue this week, Waller is in a bounce-back smash spot. Arizona allowed the most fantasy points, third-most receiving yards, and the most receiving touchdowns to tight ends last year. In Week 1, they allowed 12.0 yards per reception to tight ends, which would have been the fifth-highest last season.

Zach Ertz: Ertz saw elite volume in Week 1. With a 33.3% target share and 34.8% 1st read share. It’s too bad he’s a shell of his former self at this juncture. He could only churn out 0.75 yards per route run and 21 receiving yards. If he continues to see this crazy volume, he’ll flirt with TE1 numbers weekly, especially in PPR leagues. The Giants could allow him to post a top-12 week. Last year, New York allowed the ninth-most receiving yards and 11th-most fantasy points to tight ends. Ertz is a borderline TE1.

New York Jets vs. Dallas Cowboys

• DAL -9, O/U 38.5
• Jets vs. Cowboys Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• The Jets led the NFL in neutral pace in Week 1 but were also fifth in neutral rushing rate. Expect the Jets to remain run-heavy with Zach Wilson under center, but I expect their pace to slow down this week.
• Dallas was 17th in neutral pace in Week 1, which won’t shock anyone, but it is very interesting that they were second in neutral passing rate. That will get lost in the sauce of their Week 1 shellacking of the Giants.

Quarterbacks

Saleh before DAL:

“Zach Wilson is our guy.”

Saleh after DAL:

“We’ll be exploring all options at QB.”

— Derek Brown (aka Ugly John Daigle) (@DBro_FFB) September 12, 2023

Zach Wilson: Never, Zach Wilson. Not even if there’s a fire. After watching last week’s game, no one should be considering playing this guy, especially against a defense that just made New York look like the “little Giants.” The annexation of Puerto Rico won’t save Wilson. Wilson finished Week 1 with the fifth-lowest passing grade and 11th-highest turnover-worthy play rate. Dallas is first in defensive DVOA, holding New York to 3.6 yards per attempt and a 36.8 passer rating in Week 1. Dallas will have Wilson seeing ghosts in Week 2 with their 38.6% pressure rate (sixth-best).

Dak Prescott: Last week, Prescott was the QB29 in fantasy, as Dallas didn’t have to throw at all. This week could be much of the same. Prescott attempted only 24 passes as he was 12th in passing grade and 14th in adjusted completion rate. New York held Buffalo to the 14th-lowest yards per play and net yards per pass attempt. The Jets held Josh Allen to the fifth-lowest passer rating of the week while picking him off three times. New York deployed their corners in zone on about 50% of their defensive plays. Last year, Prescott was 22nd in yards per attempt and 26th in passer rating against zone coverage. Prescott is a low-ceiling QB2.

Running Backs

Breece Hall: Hall might not be 100% yet, but oh my lord, did he look good in Week 1. Hall only played 31% of the snaps, but that’s all he needed to roll up 11 touches and 147 total yards. With Wilson under center, expect New York to lean on their ground game, but that won’t lead to a monster workload for Hall weekly until he’s further along in his recovery. Hall forced six missed tackles on his ten carries with a jaw-dropping 10.6 yards after contact per attempt. These are numbers of legends and gawds. Last season, Dallas was 15th in explosive run rate allowed with the 14th-lowest stuff rate. They are 17th in yards per carry allowed on zone runs while also giving up the tenth-lowest yards per carry on gap runs. In Week 1, Dallas had the ninth-lowest stuff rate while allowing the ninth-highest yards per carry on zone runs (Hall 50% zone in Week 1). Hall is an RB2/3 with RB1 upside weekly because of his big play ability.

Dalvin Cook: Cook played 50% of the snaps as Hall’s running mate in Week 1 with 16 touches and 59 total yards. Cook looked…well…cooked. After Week 1, among 55 qualifying running backs, he ranks 33rd in missed tackles forced per attempt and 34th in yards after contact per attempt. In Week 1, 76% of Cook’s rushing attempts were on gap runs. Dallas allowed the second-lowest yards per carry to gap runs in Week 1 and the tenth-lowest in 2022. Cook is an RB3.

Tony Pollard: Pollard played 64% of the snaps in Week 1 with 16 touches and 82 total yards as the RB5 in fantasy. Pollard is a top-five RB weekly. Pollard had a 44% route run per team dropback rate in Week 1 with a 12% target share. He was 23rd in yards after contact per attempt, excelling on gap runs (57%) with 6.7 yards per carry. Last year, the Jets were 20th in explosive run rate and 17th in stuff rate while allowing the ninth-lowest yards after contact per attempt. They also ranked 22nd in yards per carry allowed to gap runs. Offseason questions about his size disappeared quickly as Pollard handled every carry (three) for the team inside the five-yard line. This will be a difficult matchup for Pollard. Still, Dallas should be in scoring position often, with their defense creating turnovers and short fields for the offense.

Wide Receivers

Garrett Wilson: I’ll see you in 2024, Garrett Wilson hype. As soon as word dropped that Aaron Rodgers was lost for the season, this passing offense shriveled up like a raisin. Wilson saw a 22.7% target share and 43.2% air yard share in Week 1, culminating in five grabs (five targets) for 34 receiving yards with a 6.4 aDOT. Wilson knows the familiar sting of inaccurate Zach Wilson targets. With Zach attack under center, Garrett Wilson has been neutered to nothing more than a WR3/4. Wilson will run about 81% of his routes against Trevon Diggs (69.2% catch rate and 99.2 passer rating allowed in 2022) and Stephon Gilmore (63.4% catch rate and 82.6 passer rating allowed in 2022).

Any other NYJ WR: Until Zach Wilson is benched or he finally takes a step forward as a player, every receiving option not named Garrett Wilson will lead to pain and underperformance in your fantasy lineup. Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb can be dropped.

CeeDee Lamb: In Dallas’s Week 1 blowout, Lamb had a 16.0% target share, a 21.5% air yard share, and 53.8% of the team’s receiving yards. He finished with 77 receiving yards and 3.85 yards per route run. The good thing for Lamb is he’ll avoid Sauce Gardner for most of the day. Lamb operated from the slot on 76% of his plays in Week 1. Gardner doesn’t move around the formation and won’t follow Lamb inside. Gardner played nickel on only eight snaps last year. Lamb will lock up with Michael Carter (70.9% catch rate and 83.5 passer rating allowed in 2022) all day. Lamb is a low-end WR1.

Brandin Cooks: Cooks hasn’t practiced all week (knee). The team has listed him as questionable. Cooks is a must-sit player. Last week, with the Cowboys’ defense smothering the Giants, Cooks finished with four targets and 22 receiving yards. This game sets up similarly for Dallas. If the defense crushes Zach Wilson, Dallas likely doesn’t have to throw much in Week 2. Dallas doesn’t need Cooks, especially in a full snap capacity, to beat the brakes off the Jets. 

Michael Gallup: Gallup only saw two targets last week. This game sets up very similarly to last week’s affair. Dallas likely won’t be pushed by the Jets offense to air it out. Sit Gallup. He’ll line up against D.J. Reed (56.6% catch rates and 75.7 passer rating allowed in 2022) on about 53% of his routes this week.

Tight Ends

Tyler Conklin: I’ll keep this short and sweet. With Zach Wilson under center, every Jets’ pass catcher not named Garrett Wilson is a must-sit. Dallas held tight ends to the sixth-fewest receiving yards and only one touchdown last season.

Jake Ferguson: After an entire offseason of people talking themselves into “Ferg hype,” Week 1 arrived and smashed all that. Ferguson only saw a 56% team route per dropback rate in Week 1. While he did collect a 24% target share, he did so on an unsustainable 43% TPRR while producing 0.79 yards per route run. Dallas likely doesn’t have to throw much in this game. Ferguson is a TE2 and a must-sit candidate. New York allowed the ninth-highest yards per reception to tight ends last season and the seventh-fewest touchdowns.