Miami Dolphins vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Pace and playcalling notes
- New offensive coordinator, Kellen Moore, is taking over playcalling duties for the Chargers after his four-year stint in Dallas.
- During his tenure, Moore orchestrated an offense that ranked in the top four in points (27.7), yards (391)and third-down conversion percentage (44%) per game per ESPN.
- Last year with Dallas, the Cowboys offense ranked 6th in neutral pace and 23rd in pass percentage. Top-10 in plays per game.
- Last year the Chargers offense under Joe Lombardi ranked second in pace and pass percentage under neutral game script conditions.
- Miami’s offense under first-year head coach Mike McDaniel finished last year 14th in plays per game with the eighth-highest neutral pace play rate. Pretty middle of the pack in most pace metrics but losing Tua for a surplus of games likely played a contributing factor.
Quarterbacks
Justin Herbert: Herbert presents an incredible value in 2023, coming in at a discounted price in season-long fantasy drafts. Last season, he faced numerous challenges that impacted his performance, from injuries to key players like Keenan Allen and Mike Williams to a rib injury of his own and an aDOT of 6.9, the third-lowest among QBs. These factors, mostly out of his control, have kept his price low this year. However, the tide has turned as all his weapons are now healthy, with the addition of first-round pick Quentin Johnston, and Kellen Moore taking over as the offensive play caller. Let’s not forget that only Josh Allen outscored Herbert in fantasy points in 2021. Moreover, his Week 1 matchup against a banged-up Miami Dolphins secondary, missing star cornerback Jalen Ramsey, is highly favorable. The only caveat might be his history against Vic Fangio’s defenses, where he’s had a few subpar outings. But with his newfound support and improved health, Herbert is poised for a strong start to the 2023 season. Locked-and-loaded fantasy QB1 with No. 1 overall upside in Week 1. He shredded the 2022 Dolphins personnel for a season-high 367 passing yards in Week 14 last season.
Tua Tagovailoa: I haven’t been the biggest Tua Tagovailoa-stan throughout the draft process, citing his lack of mobility as a major red flag for his fantasy football ceiling/floor projection. However, I can acknowledge that the Dolphins southpaw can deliver spike weeks with two of the fastest WRs in the league vacuuming up nearly half of his pass attempts. But I am not so sure that this is one of those smash spots for Miami’s QB1. Last year when facing Brandon Staley’s defense, Tagovailoa posted his worst completion percentage (36%) of the 2022 season. Considering this uber-talented defensive roster is healthy entering the start of the season – usually not the case if you have followed the Chargers’ injury-plagued luck throughout the years – Miami’s offense might be more underwhelming than most are anticipatinh given the game’s high projected total for Vegas. If you drafted Tua Tagovailoa, you are probably starting him. But I wouldn’t anticipate one of his monster performances that will be fantasy QB1-worthy. Tagovailoa only scored 20-plus fantasy points in four of his 15 games played last season.
Running Backs
Austin Ekeler: The expectation is that in 2023, Austin Ekeler won’t see the same insane volume he’s had over the last two years, while he’s scored more touchdowns than everyone else. With everyone healthy in the offense for Week 1, he probably won’t be seeing an insane target share. But he’s still the lead back on the Bolts’ offense with the third-highest implied team total on the Week 1 slate. Chances are he is going to find the end zone on Sunday versus Vic Fangio’s defense. In Ekeler’s last three contests versus Fangio’s Broncos, he has averaged over 17 fantasy points per game in half-PPR scoring, catching no fewer than three balls to go along with at least one TD score. Top-5 RB play in Week 1.
Joshua Kelley: It’s possible we see more of a 1-2 split with Kellen Moore inserted as the new offensive play caller, but I wouldn’t bet a Week 1 Flex spot on it. Keep Kelley stashed as a high-end handcuff in case Ekeler suffers an injury. The former UCLA product has been a great fit in Moore’s downhill running scheme and did enough during the preseason to get the initial No.2 nod over second-year RB Isaiah Spiller.
Raheem Mostert: The planets are aligning for Raheem Mostert in Week 1. Jeff Wilson Jr. was placed on IR and rookie De’Von Achane is returning from a shoulder injury. Mostert is hardly a player that fantasy gamers should be relying on for the long-term given his horrible injury track record and 31-year old age, but for Week 1 he looks like the clear-cut No. 1 rusher in the Miami backfield. And the matchup is divine versus the Los Angeles Chargers defense that does not stop the run. They have ranked inside the bottom-six in rushing yards per game allowed since Brandon Staley took over as the head coach in 2021. Consider Mostert, a low-end RB2 player for Week 1. If you can’t start him this week with confidence, you’ll likely never start him at any point during the season. Mike McDaniel has been vocal about running the ball more consistently, and Mostert has been his GUY through different rosters and coaching staffs. In Mostert we trust…for Week 1 that is. Have faith in the ex-49ers running back even if the Dolphins should fall behind against a high-powered Chargers offense. Mostert finished the 2022 season 15th in route participation among RBs averaging just under 3 targets per game.
De’Von Achane: The talented rookie third-rounder is the preferred long-term bet in Miami’s backfield. But for Week 1, expect him to take a backseat to a healthier Mostert. Recall that Achane was still buried on the depth chart during the preseason behind other RBs like Salvon Ahmed and Myles Gaskin (now with the Vikings). Keep him stashed on your bench and play the waiting game with Achane. His time will come.
Wide Receivers
Tyreek Hill: Due to Cooper Kupp‘s injury, Tyreek Hill has crept into the top-3 consensus WR season-long rankings. And after his monster season in his first year with Miami, it’s hard to argue with the bump. As for Week 1, Hill slides in as the WR2 overall in the half-PPR projections with a high-end target share locked in versus a defense that he hung 81 yards and one TD on back in Week 14. Despite being inefficient – four catches on 10 targets – Hill still finished that week as the WR10.
Jaylen Waddle: Waddle was not as fortunate the last time he faced the Chargers. He busted out with just 4.1 fantasy points, with just two catches for 31 yards on 4 targets. His explosive skill set makes him an auto start every single week but bear his downside should the Bolts present more problems for Tagovailoa and company. View Waddle was a mid-range fantasy WR2 for Week 1.
Keenan Allen: The Justin Herbert–Keenan Allen duo has faced Vic Fangio’s defense on three separate occasions since 2020. Allen has posted 12 targets, 10 targets and 9 targets in those three contests. He has also scored or posted at least 67 yards with four-plus receptions. As long as Allen is not held back by any injury, he’s going to be posting fringe fantasy WR1 numbers like we saw during the back half of the 2022 season. He also cooked this Miami defense to the tune of 12 catches for 92 yards on 14 targets last season.
Mike Williams: Williams had a rare boom game alongside a healthy Allen when he last faced Miami, going 6 for 116 and 1 TD. He was not heavily targeted (6 targets) but delivered in a big way as Big Mike tends to do. 5-99-1, 4-39-0, 3-63-1 and 4-54-0 are the stat lines he has posted versus Vic Fangio’s Broncos defenses since 2020, which fits William’s boom-bust profile to a tee. But given his status as the clear-cut No. 2 – miles ahead of Joshua Palmer and Quentin Johston- I am embracing the boom-or-bust profile with Williams in Week 1 as an upside WR3 play.
Quentin Johnston: All indications are that QJ is the No. 4 WR on the depth chart behind Joshua Palmer. Will that be the case all season? Probably not. But for Week 1, leave the first-rounder on the bench with him likely not accumulating enough snaps/routes for any worthwhile fantasy production.
Tight Ends
Gerald Everett: Everett has been my favorite sleeper tight end to select this season, and I feel great about thrusting him into my starting lineup with offensive fireworks likely on deck versus the Miami Dolphins. He should occupy the Dalton Schultz role in Kellen Moore’s offense, which should lead to plenty of routes/snaps for Everett to create fantasy production. Denver’s defense under Fangio was extremely stingy in the red zone – first in red-zone scoring defense from 2020-2021 – so it might be more of a floor performance than a ceiling game if Everett can’t find the end zone. Luckily for him, the Dolphins were horrible versus tight ends in 2022 (3rd-most points allowed) and there has not been a dramatic personnel change along the safety or linebacker positions that would suggest they will start to completely nullify tight end production in 2023. David Long is much more of a run defending linebacker as is DeShon Elliott at the safety position. Everett posted a 5-28-0 stat line on 8 targets in his lone matchup versus the Dolphins in Week 14 of the 2022 season.
Durham Smythe: Durham Smythe has seen inspiring route participation during the preseason contests with the first-team offense. It’s clear that he is viewed as the TE1 on the Dolphins, but that role in itself may not be worth much given how concentrated targets are between the top two WRs. No need to dabble in Smythe unless you’re manning some insane 16/18-team tight end premium league. But his usage is worth monitoring should it carry over into the regular season.
Los Angeles Rams vs. Seattle Seahawks
Pace and playcalling notes
- Seattle ranked 6th in early down pass play rate in 2022. +4% pass rate over expectation.
- 10th in neutral game script pass rate, 3rd in neutral game script no huddle rate
- The Rams owned the 7th-highest neutral game script pass rate before Matthew Stafford‘s injury.
- But LA also ranked 5th-slowest in pace over that span.
- They went much more run-heavy after Stafford’s injury in 2022.
Quarterbacks
Geno Smith: Geno Smith is an overlooked gem for Week 1 of the 2023 NFL fantasy season. The Seahawks quarterback averaged an impressive 19.4 fantasy points per game last season, tied for 6th in the league. Seattle boasts a strong implied team total (25.5) against the completely overhauled Rams defense, which ranks 32nd in secondary per PFF. With youth and growing pains on the Rams’ side, Smith, as a 5-point home favorite, is set to shine. He’s had success against the Rams in the past, averaging nearly 22 fantasy points per game last year, making him a solid option to start, especially if Jaxon Smith-Njigba is unavailable. Double stacking Smith with D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett could pay big dividends in DFS formats. If you landed Smith as your late-round drafted QB, you are in good hands for Week 1.
Matthew Stafford: Stafford threw just 10 TDs in nine games played last season. He averaged fewer than 13 fantasy points per game. Worse than Andy Dalton and Davis Mills. As a non-mobile quarterback, Stafford needs to hit on TD efficiency to pay off in fantasy football. Considering he could be without his No. 1 WR, Cooper Kupp, Stafford cannot be started in Week 1 versus the Seahawks.
Running Backs
Kenneth Walker III: Kenneth Walker III stood as the RB8 from Weeks 6-17 after Rashaad Penny was placed on IR with a season-ending injury in 2022. The rookie was the RB9 in points per game. If you remove the two games, he missed due to injury (Weeks 13/14) he averaged 16.4 fantasy points per game, which would have placed him as the RB8 in points per game. He got absolutely FED after returning from a late-season ankle injury. Walker was either consistently playing 70 percent-plus snaps or carrying the ball 23-plus times as the Seattle workhorse. And at times, we even saw Walker earn targets while leading the backfield in routes run. But overall, he underwhelmed as a receiver as he did at the college level. And his tendency to look for home runs resulted in a rushing success rate that ranked second-to-last (31.4%) among rushers with at least 100 carries in 2022. He also missed games because of injuries. His path to RB1 upside will be that much tougher to realize after the team added Zach Charbonnet in the second round of this year’s draft. And to add literal insult to injury, Walker popped up this offseason with a groin injury, forcing him to miss time in training camp and during the preseason contests. However, he is healthy entering Week 1 and should be started in all formats as a fantasy RB2 with upside for more until we learn more about a workload split between Walker/Charbonnet. The last time he faced the Rams (Week 18 of last season), Walker rushed for 114 yards on a whopping 29 carries. The Rams also lost linebacker Bobby Wagner (who is back on the Seahawks) who finished as PFF’s highest-graded run defender among linebackers in 2022.
Zach Charbonnet: Charbonnet posted the 5th-highest PFF receiving grade and tied for first in receptions per game (3.7) among his 2023 running back draft class. The former UCLA running back also finished with the highest positive run rate (57%) and lowest bust rate (4%) among drafted running backs. The rookie Seahawk can’t deliver explosive rushes like Walker, but he can be trusted to hit doubles as a rusher and receiver consistently. He caught all four of his targets for 21 yards during the preseason. That’s concerning for those hoping Walker was stepping into a legitimate three-down role this season, which was very appealing about his fantasy profile last year. I’d expect Charbonnet to get some solid run at points versus the Rams, but not to the extent that he should be started in most formats. We still don’t know if he owns the receiving role with DeeJay Dallas seeing reps as the receiving back in the preseason. And it remains to be seen who Seattle will give the ball to when they enter the goal line. Keep the second rounder on your bench for Week 1, but don’t be shocked to see him rise in the Week 2 rankings if he sees favorable usage.
Cam Akers: I would expect to see more of what we saw of Cam Akers during the latter part of the 2022 Rams’ season, when he operated as a full-blown bell cow over the final six weeks of the season leading the NFL in rushing yards (85 yards per game). The matchup versus a questionable Seahawks’ run defense – albeit one that should be improved after offseason moves – is one we saw Akers take advantage of last season. He averaged 82 rushing yards, 21 touches and 16.4 points per game in two matchups versus the Seahawks in 2022. And it was the first Seattle game that Akers got back into the good graces of Sean McVay, out-touching Kyren Williams 18 to 3. I’d easily expect double-digit carries for Akers and some solid rushing production with volume on his side. But a ceiling game might not be in the cards if Akers fails to find the end zone or loses work in the receiving game to Williams, who the team has rested as a “starter” along with Akers during the preseason. Akers is a backend RB2, but profiles more as a floor than ceiling play in Week 1. Likely wouldn’t FLEX him if I wanted more upside.
Kyren Williams: Seattle’s defense has traditionally been leaky toward defending RBs in the passing game. Last year, they were a bottom-10 unit defending RBs in terms of receptions, targets and receiving yards. If Kyren Williams truly owns the “receiving back role” that has been suggested throughout the offseason, it’s entirely possible he racks up several receptions should the Rams fall behind. Makes him an interesting flier in deep PPR formats, but I’d rather see it first before thrusting him into a lineup based on a projected role and game script – both of which are no guarantees. Williams also lacks the requisite athleticism to create chunk plays on his own, so his fantasy value will be solely dependent on the amount of receiving volume he sees. Worth stashing if you have an extra bench spot.
Wide Receivers
DK Metcalf: We love Geno Smith this week, therefore we love his WRs. Metcalf was Seattle’s target share leader in 2022, and I’d expect nothing less from him in his first matchup versus a sans-Jalen Ramsey defense. Metcalf has an easy chance to hit paydirt in this particular matchup after leading all players in end-zone targets a season ago. The Rams were at their best in 2022 inside the red zone, allowing the league’s lowest conversion rate. Expect that number to dip dramatically in favor of the Seattle passing game. Start Metcalf as a back-end fantasy WR1 in Week 1.
Tyler Lockett: Arguably the league’s most underrated WR…Tyler Lockett is in a great position for drafters looking for a start in Week 1. The long-time Seahawks WR has traditionally destroyed the Rams, and last year was no different. Two of Lockett’s best games in 2022 were versus LA, highlighted by a season-high 128 receiving yards game on nine catches back in Week 13.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba: As we get closer to Week 1, we should know more about JSN’s injury and availability. But after suffering a wrist injury in the preseason, Pete Carroll has been curiously optimistic about JSN’s status saying he will play in Week 1. It’s shocking given the intial diagnosis of 1-2 weeks missed, but you can really never rely on Petey Sunshine for accurate injury information. View JSN as a boom-or-bust WR3, that I am okay with starting if you drafted him as a starter before his ADP dipped out of starter range due to the injury scare.
Cooper Kupp: He’s out for Week 1. And the way his hamstring injury is trending…I doubt we see Kupp suit up anytime soon.
Van Jefferson: Without Kupp, Van Jefferson projects to slide in as the de-facto No. 1 WR versus the Seattle Seahawks. From Weeks 10-18 without Kupp last season, Jefferson was the WR39 coming off a major injury. But his 14% target rate was abysmal, as Higbee led the team in total targets. Still, Jefferson commanded basically everything downfield, with a 40% air yards share…which ranked 10th among all WRs over that span. How much of Jefferson’s actual production that was either injury/QB-related remains to be seen. At least you can bet that Jefferson will be out there running a ton of routes like the locked-and-loaded No. 1 WR with a golden opportunity. He earned 7 targets the last time he faced Seattle, catching three for 61 yards. View him as a top-40 WR for Week 1, with volume likely coming his way. Considering some of the roster holes you might be faced with due to some high-priced fantasy studs being zeroes for Week 1, you could do worse than flexing Jefferson in a full-time role. Just note that Jefferson’s probably more of a floor play versus a Seahawks defense that was extremely stingy versus perimeter WRs last season, allowing the fewest fantasy points to WRs aligned outside.
Tutu Atwell: Atwell was thrust into a larger role in 2022 and was halfway decent in a horrible situation. He finished the season 28th in expected yards per route run (1.85). However, from Week 12 onward when he started playing a full allotment of snaps, he still ranked outside the top 60 overall among WRs. He should be the favorite to take over snaps in the slot, which gives him a decent matchup inside. Desperation dart-throw that should see a solid target share (18% from Weeks 13-18, superior to Jefferson), but he’s not accompanied by a ton of upside.
Puka Nacua: Nacua has been a fun toy for Sean McVay during the offseason, with reports of the team giving him an immediate role in the wake of Kupp’s injury. Makes sense, considering FantasyPros’ own Thor Nystrom coined Nacua as “Discount Deebo” in his final draft player comps. I also liked Nacua’s profile coming out of college and felt like his 5th-round draft capital did not match his production. The 6-foot-2 and 201-pound wideout ended the 2021 season as a junior sixth in yards per route run behind future NFL WRs like Treylon Burks, Wan’Dale Robinson, and Drake London. And like London, Nacua operated primarily on the outside with a 78 percent perimeter alignment. Nacua finished his BYU tenure strong as PFF’s second highest-graded WR in the nation (90.1) due to his impressive efficiency on a per route run basis. He was targeted on 38 percent of his routes in 2022 and posted the second-highest targets above expectation in his class per Sports Info Solutions. On a depth chart with zero certified studs after Cooper Kupp – Van Jefferson, Ben Skowronek, Tutu Atwell, Demarcus Robinson – I’m not shocked he has impressed enough to earn a Day 1 role with his versatility. However, becoming an immediate “contributor’ does not mean he is destined for immediate fantasy football success from the get-go. Again, he’s still probably the third option on offense that might struggle to move the ball without Kupp. Keep him stashed on your bench to see how Week 1 shakes out first, before thrusting him into any lineups. The Athletic’s Jourdan Rodrigue expects Nacua/Atwell to essentially split WR3 duties when Kupp is healthy, as they will both be used more situationally than anything else.
Tight Ends
Noah Fant: The Seattle Seahawks are operating with a dreaded tight end by committee with Fant, Will Dissly and Colby Parkinson all mixed in the fold with the team’s starting offense during the preseason games. Fant has the most upside of the bunch based on his receiving and athletic profile, but you’re just praying for a TD or massive run after the catch score. Two games versus the Rams last season, Fant averaged four receptions for 31 yards. He won’t score zero points but won’t be useful unless he scores. All Fant’s four touchdowns last season came on targets inside the 10-yard line. Avoid the Seattle tight end room.
Tyler Higbee: Higbee could stumble into a ton of production in Week 1. The Rams tight end finished 7th in route participation (71%) through 17 weeks last season, posting a 21% target share (4th) and 24% target rate per route run (3rd) among TEs with 80 targets. He finished 9th in PPR points per game (9.04). Higbee could easily emerge as the No. 2 target on the offense, and he could easily see his target share skyrocket should Kupp miss any time with his hamstring injury. Start him as back-end fantasy TE1. Seattle has ranked inside the bottom-five in points allowed to tight ends over the last two seasons.
Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Giants
Pace and playcalling notes
- The Cowboys ran the third-most plays in the NFL last season, but that’s all out the window with Kellen Moore gone and Mike McCarthy running the offense now. All indications are that this offense is going to slow things down.
Quarterbacks
Dak Prescott: By now, you’ve heard the stat repeated by most fantasy analysts. Dak Prescott threw 15 interceptions in just 12 games in 2022, tying for the league lead despite only playing in 12 games and leading the NFL with a 3.8% interception rate. His 91.1 QB rating and his 7.3 yards per attempt were his lowest since 2017, and his 66.2% completion percentage was his lowest since 2019. By all indications, 2022 was a pretty rough year for Dak. And now, offensive coordinator Kellen Moore is gone, and Mike McCarthy has control of the offense. From a season-long perspective, that terrifies me. But for this week against the Giants, it’s probably fine. Dak and the Cowboys will open the year with a bit of an element of surprise against the Giants, and they should be able to take advantage of an often overly-aggressive Wink Martindale defense. All indications (welcome to the party, Brandin Cooks) are that Dallas is going to throw the ball more this season, and that should play well in Week 1 against the NFL’s “Magic School Bus” defense: the Giants are going to take chances, make mistakes, and get messy. Dak is QB10 in FantasyPros Week 1 ECR, behind Tua Tagovailoa and just ahead of Kirk Cousins, Geno Smith, Deshaun Watson, Jared Goff and his opponent Daniel Jones. I’m personally putting him behind Geno and Goff but keeping him in QB1 territory.
Daniel Jones: Jones is QB14 in Week 1 FantasyPros ECR and QB15 in Draft ECR, so the experts have him just outside QB1 territory either way. Most view Jones as a high-floor player with rushing upside who had a mini breakout in 2022 and should be even better in 2023 with Darren Waller and the approximately 17 WR3s the Giants acquired this offseason. And I agree with all of that after Jones finished as QB9 in most formats last year. The Giants have a tougher schedule in 2023, and kicking things off in Week 1 against Micah Parsons and the Dallas pass rush isn’t ideal for an offensive line that is improved but still likely league-average at best. The Giants face the Cardinals in Week 2, so Jones is worth stashing even if you don’t ultimately start him in Week 1.
Running Backs
Tony Pollard: Ezekiel Elliott is gone. And despite a murky contract situation and offseason surgery, Pollard is locked and loaded as the guy in Dallas this season. Entering a contract year with virtually no one threatening him for touches, Pollard is set up for a career year. The Dallas offense will miss the pace that Kellen Moore brought to the table, but Pollard should catch more passes this season in Mike McCarthey’s version of the offense. He’s a locked and loaded starter in all formats. Health aside, there just isn’t much more to we need to see from Pollard at this point.
Deuce Vaughn: Vaughn has been a nice story this offseason. He looked shifty and explosive in the preseason and landed on some highlight reels. However, he needs to improve his consistency if he’s going to be a regular on an NFL team, and size concerns will follow him wherever he goes. The Cowboys listed Rico Dowdle as the backup and Vaughn, Hunter Luepke and Ronald Jones as the “Fourth team” offense against the Patriots.
Rico Dowdle: He’s technically listed as the backup to Tony Pollard in Dallas, but I have no confidence in starting him this week. Pollard seems fully recovered from his offseason surgery, and the Cowboys are likely going to feed him in a contract year. There were whispers Dowdle may even make the team out of camp, and that should tell us all we need to know about Dowdle’s ceiling. Maybe toss him into a high stakes DFS contest to see if you can get lucky, but keep him away from your H2H matchup lineups.
Saquon Barkley: Barkley finished as the RB6 in Half PPR last season, as he finally looked healthy and benefited from a much-improved Giants offense under first-year HC Brian Daboll. The Giants added a slew of pass catchers to help Daniel Jones this offseason, but they didn’t do much to reinforce the RB position despite the contract standoff with Barkley. Entering a contract year, the 26-year-old could top the career-high 352 touches he received in 2022. In Week 1, however, he’ll face a Cowboys defense that was one of the best in the league at limiting points to opposing RBs. This might not be the week you want to pay up for Barkley in DFS, but he’s an auto-start in your weekly matchups regardless of the matchup.
Matt Breida: Breida is a handcuff to Barkley and nothing more. And he may not even be a valuable handcuff because in the event of an injury to Barkley, he’ll likely split time with (and possibly even take a back seat to) rookie Eric Gray.
Eric Gray: The Giants selected Gray in the first round of the NFL Draft, and while no one expects him to be the long-term replacement at RB if Saquon Barkley walks in free agency, he is an intriguing handcuff option this season. But he doesn’t belong in any of your lineups Week 1.
Wide Receivers
CeeDee Lamb: Lamb has gotten better and seen more volume in each of his three seasons in the NFL, and he’ll be up for a contract extension soon. I have concerns about the post-Kellen Moore Cowboys offense, but Lamb is going to remain the Alpha in this Dallas passing attack regardless. I expect the Cowboys to throw the ball more in 2023, and Lamb will be the focal point of that attack. He caught 107 of his 156 targets for over 1,350 yards in 2022 despite Dak Prescott missing five games. A full season with Dak should push those numbers even higher. The Giants were middle of the pack in allowing points to opposing points to WRs in 2022, and their defense should remain mostly unchanged in Wink Martindale’s second season. FantasyPros ECR currently has Lamb as one of six A+ WR starts for Week 1 despite the fact that he’ll see plenty of Adoree’ Jackson on Sunday night.
Brandin Cooks: The Cowboys lacked a true No. 2 WR to complement CeeDee Lamb last season, and it showed. Lamb caught 107 passes, and the second-leading pass catcher was TE Dalton Schultz, who caught 57 passes. Schultz is gone, and Dallas acquired Cooks to help their passing attack. Cooks has bounced around the league a bunch, but he has consistently produced when healthy and in the right situations (i.e. not on the 2022 Houston Texans). I’ve been pounding the table for Cooks as a sleeper all offseason, and I think he’s a solid WR3 for Week 1 with a ton of upside.
Isaiah Hodgins: Hodgins salvaged his career with the Giants last season and figures to have a prominent role in the passing game again in 2023. However, the Giants traded for TE Darren Waller and stacked their WR room with a half-dozen other options. It’s going to be hard to trust anyone on the Giants other than Waller for consistent targets, but Hodgins is at least penciled in as a starter to begin the year. He’s probably more of a DFS play than someone you want in your weekly lineups right now, but he did score four touchdowns in his last five games to end the year and is worth monitoring as we see if this offense can take another step forward.
Darius Slayton: Slayton led all Giants WRs in targets last season, but all that means is he caught 46 passes for 724 yards and two touchdowns. Especially with the new additions in the Giants’ WR room, it’s hard to trust Slayton on a weekly basis. You can essentially copy/paste this response for all of these WRs.
Parris Campbell: Campbell is a veteran presence in the Giants’ WR room who caught 97 of his 144 targets for 983 yards and five touchdowns in four seasons with the Colts. He has a lengthy injury history and will likely play a rotational role in a now-crowded WR corps.
Sterling Shepard: Shepard has played in just 10 games over the last two seasons and just 32 games over the last four years combined. Now 30, the veteran WR is competing for playing time in a suddenly crowded WR room in New Jersey. It’s possible he’s the best WR of the group, but it’s perhaps just as likely that his best days are behind him and he becomes an afterthought in a new-look Giants offense.
Jalin Hyatt: Hyatt is perhaps the only WR on the Giants who has the ability to truly separate himself from the pack if everything clicks. New York took him in the third round of the NFL Draft because of the same blazing speed that had him generating first round buzz earlier in the draft process. He displayed that speed in training camp and the preseason and, while he may be a boom-or-bust option for much of his rookie season, the Giants are going to find ways to get him on the field to open up things for their offense. No one else on their roster can do what Hyatt does, and New York is going to give him every opportunity to be successful. He’s not quite ready to be in your Week 1 lineups, but GPP DFS contests are the perfect place to get some exposure to Hyatt.
Wan’Dale Robinson: Robinson was activated off PUP just before the start of the season, and it’s not clear if he is going to play in Week 1. Robinson himself recently admitted he doesn’t know if he’ll be ready for Week 1. And even if he does play, he’ll likely be limited.
Tight Ends
Jake Ferguson: Ferguson was every fantasy analyst’s favorite TE sleeper this offseason, and for good reason. Opportunity: check. Low cost: check. Limited competition: check. Dalton Schultz (who received more targets on the Cowboys than anyone not named CeeDee Lamb) is gone, and Ferguson is the favorite to see the bulk of those snaps and targets. He does have some competition in the form of Peyton Hendershot and Luke Schoonmaker, but the consensus has been that Ferguson is well above both of them in the pecking order. I have Ferguson as a mid-range TE2 in Week 1 against a Giants team that struggled against TEs in 2022.
Darren Waller: If he can stay healthy, Waller can be a league winner in 2023. He’s the de facto WR for the Giants and is the favorite to lead the team in targets. The IF (all caps) here is whether or not he can stay healthy. Injuries have been a problem throughout Waller’s career, and he has played in just 20 games over the last two seasons. If you drafted Waller, you likely drafted him as your TE1, so start him as such in Week 1 against the Cowboys. And in DFS, he’s significantly cheaper than Travis Kelce (if he plays at all), Mark Andrews and T.J. Hoceknson this week. Editor’s Note: Waller popped up on the injury report late in the week with a hamstring injury, which is always concerning. But there is reportedly optimism that he will be able to play on Sunday night.
Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets
Pace and playcalling notes
- In the eight games without Zach Wilson under center for the Jets last year, their passing attempts climbed from 29.5 to 46.1 per game.
- With Nathaniel Hackett calling plays in Green Bay from 2019 to 2021, the Packers were 32nd in neutral pace and 11th in neutral passing rate.
Quarterbacks
Josh Allen: Allen might not be completely matchup-proof, but he’s certainly matchup-resistant. Allen can hurt defenses with his arm and his legs, so he has “outs,” as they say in poker – Allen has more than one possible path to success. That said, this is a rough matchup. The Jets’ pass defense ranked sixth in DVOA last year and allowed the ninth-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks. In two games against the Jets last season, Allen completed 34-of-61 passes (55.7%) for 352 yards (5.8 YPA), with one touchdown and two interceptions. Yuck. However, Allen found an “out” in those two games against the Jets, rushing for 133 yards and three touchdowns. The concern is that if Allen doesn’t produce good rushing numbers, he probably won’t give his investors many fantasy points, because it’s hard to imagine anyone torching the Jets for 300-plus yards and three TD passes. You’re starting Allen, of course, but he’s more of a midrange QB1 this week than a slam-dunk top-three QB option.
Aaron Rodgers: While this is a big divisional matchup to kick off the season, the story on Monday night is going to be Rodgers’s debut with the Jets. Rodgers turns 40 in December but still has his fastball, and the Jets think he’s the missing piece for their championship-caliber roster. Rodgers threw 12 interceptions last season, more than he threw in the previous two years combined and more than he has thrown in any season since 2008. His 3,695 yards passing were also his fewest in any season in which he played at least 16 games, and he played in 17 last year. Is any of this an indication that he’s in decline, or was he just dealing with a young and flawed roster in Green Bay? It’s probably more the latter, but we shouldn’t just immediately discredit declining numbers from a QB who is, you know, old. Unfortunately, he faces a Bills defense that allowed the eighth-fewest points to opposing QBs last season in Week 1, and early FantsyPros Week 1 ECR has him as QB18.
Running Backs
James Cook: In a game rich with interesting storylines, one of them is the RB duel between the Cook brothers, Dalvin and James. A committee back last year, James Cook seems to have ascended to a leading role, at least based on preseason usage and reports from Bills beat writers. New Bills RBs Damien Harris and Latavius Murray will get some early-down work and could poach goal-line carries since they’re heavier and more rugged than Cook. Still, a meatier role for Cook is reason for his stakeholders to celebrate. It’s nice to have the No. 1 back in one of the league’s better offenses. This week, however, it’s best to regard Cook as a high-end RB3 in a difficult matchup against the Jets.
Damien Harris: The ex-Patriot will get touches, but he might not be fantasy-relevant if the Bills are committed to using James Cook as their lead back. Harris had 15 touchdown runs in 2021, but even if he ends up as Buffalo’s designated goal-line back, it’s hard to imagine Harris scoring double-digit touchdowns when Bills QB Josh Allen is so fond of calling his own number when the Bills are close to the end zone. Fade Harris until we see how his role evolves.
Dalvin Cook: All reports are that Cook is fully healthy heading into the season following offseason shoulder surgery. And that’s good, because fellow Jets RB Breece Hall is still working his way back from a torn ACL and is expected to be eased back into action to start the season. There’s the value for Cook, at least in the early going: with Hall likely being limited, Cook should receive a larger workload, with an opportunity to prove he fits well in this new-look Aaron Rodgers Jets offense. If I have to pick a Jets RB for Week 1, I’m picking Cook. Early Week 1 FantasyPros ECR actually disagrees with me as of this writing (Hall is at RB29, Cook at RB32), but I expect that to flip as we get closer to the weekend and practice reports start coming out. But I’m not ranking either one higher than an RB3 in Week 1.
Breece Hall: Hall showed us his potential last season. The ceiling is incredibly high. In seven games, he rushed 80 times for 463 yards (5.8 ypc) while hauling in 19 passes for 218 yards and scoring five touchdowns for an otherwise limited Jets offense. But now he has to share the backfield with veteran RB Dalvin Cook while working his way back from last year’s ACL tear. All indications are that the Jets are going to ease him back into action, and he already sat out of practice earlier this week. If the Jets are being cautious with Hall, then so should fantasy managers. I have him as a mid-range RB3 for Week 1, just behind Cook.
Wide Receivers
Stefon Diggs: You can’t bench one of the best receivers in the game, but this is not exactly a smash spot for Diggs. The Jets allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing wide receivers last season. In two games against the Jets last season, Diggs put up stat lines of 5-93-0 and 3-37-0. The Jets have one of the best cover corners in the league in Sauce Gardner, and CBs D.J. Reed and Michael Carter II are no slouches. Diggs profiles as more of a lower-end WR1 than as a top WR option this week.
Gabe Davis: Maybe you can’t bench Stefon Diggs, but you can – and probably should – bench Davis. With a collection of good cover men, the Jets are stingy to opposing WRs. Davis is especially dependent on big plays. Those Jets cornerbacks are hard to beat, and the ferocious Jets pass rush might not give Bills QB Josh Allen much time to find receivers downfield. Consider Davis a dicey WR4 option for Week 1.
Garrett Wilson: Wilson had an excellent rookie season in 2022 despite playing with bad quarterbacks on a bad offense. Now, he gets to work with Aaron Rodgers. As my colleague Andrew Erickson points out: last year in games started by non-Zach Wilson Jets QBs, Wilson averaged over 17 fantasy points, 6 catches, 11 targets, and 82 receiving yards per game. And those are just the non-Zach Wilson games. With someone like Rodgers consistently getting him the ball whenever he’s even remotely open (and he will be, often), then the “ceiling is the roof,” as Michael Jordan would say. In Week 1, he faces a Bills defense that was actually below league-average at allowing points to opposing WRs, so this isn’t as tough of a matchup as it might initially seem. I have him ranked as WR7 this week, ahead of Stefon Diggs and just behind Amon-Ra St. Brown.
Allen Lazard: Aaron Rodgers arrived in New Jersey and started calling all of his friends to let them know he found a party. Lazard followed the veteran QB to New Jersey, and he’s currently penciled in as the WR2 for the Jets. Last year, he turned 100 targets into 60 catches and six touchdowns. Solid numbers, and the targets and receptions were both career highs. The catch is that those numbers are probably his ceiling, even in what should be an improved offense. In Week 1 against the Bills, he’s firmly in WR4 territory.
Mecole Hardman Jr.: Hardman appeared in just eight games for the Chiefs last season, catching 25 of his 34 targets for 297 yards and four touchdowns. However, things aren’t off to a great start with the Jets. He dealt with a finger injury and is reportedly sliding down the depth chart, to the point he might be behind Randall Cobb for the WR3 role.
Randall Cobb: Like Allen Lazard, Cobb followed Aaron Rodgers to the Jets. Cobb says he considered retirement before joining the Jets, but now he’s chasing a Super Bowl with his friend and longtime teammate. A recent report indicated that he could overtake Mecole Hardman for the WR3 role, but he’ll likely split time at the position regardless. Cobb isn’t someone you should rely on in weekly lineups given his low ceiling.
Tight Ends
Dalton Kincaid: A first-round pick out of Utah, Kincaid is a talented pass catcher who could cause matchup nightmares for opposing defenses. There have been 25 tight ends drafted in the first round since 2000. Only four of them finished in TE1 range in fantasy scoring as rookies – Kyle Pitts, Evan Engram, Jeremy Shockey and Heath Miller. Kincaid could be the rare first-round TE who makes a fantasy splash in Year 1, but I wouldn;t be eager to use him in Week 1, especially not against a tough Jets defense.
Dawson Knox: One of the less interesting offseason debates in the fantasy community was whether Dawson Knox would maintain fantasy relevance in 2023 after Buffalo’s drafting of first-round TE Dalton Kincaid. Knox likely hit his fantasy peak in 2021, when he finished TE11 in PPR fantasy scoring, mostly on the strength of his nine touchdowns. Knox averaged 4.7 targets a game that season. Even though that’s a modest number, it’s hard to imagine Knox coming close to it with Kincaid around. Knox shouldn’t be anywhere near your starting lineup this week.
Tyler Conklin: Conklin saw 87 targets in each of the last two seasons and turned in almost identical stat lines: 61 receptions for 593 yards and three touchdowns in 2021 and 58 receptions for 552 yards and three touchdowns in 2022. Those numbers SHOULD improve with Aaron Rodgers at the helm in 2023, but his ceiling is likely a low-end TE1. In Week 1, he faces a Bills defense that was second-best in the NFL last season at limiting points to opposing TEs, so he’s probably better off left on your bench while we see how the targets will be distributed in this new offense.
Detroit Lions vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Pace and playcalling notes
- In Weeks 14-18, Detroit was eighth in neutral pace, a massive change from their early season ways. Before this shift in approach, Detroit was 20th in neutral pace.
- Kansas City was only 13th in neutral pace last season, but Mahomes still led an offense that was first in neutral passing rate.
Quarterbacks
Jared Goff: If you punted quarterback in your drafts or are in the QB streaming business this year, Goff should be a high-priority target for you in Week 1. While Kansas City allowed the seventh-lowest yards per attempt last year, they were putrid in numerous other pass-defense categories. The Chiefs were 20th in pass defense DVOA while allowing the most fantasy points to quarterbacks in the red zone and the most passing touchdowns in the NFL. Add on top of this that they will be missing Chris Jones and lost Frank Clark in the offseason, so pay no attention to their fifth ranking in pressure rate last year. Goff should have plenty of time in the pocket. After the Lions went up-tempo in his final five games last season, Goff was shredding defenses. He ranked third in passing grade, 12th in yards per attempt, and fifth in adjusted completion rate. Goff is a strong QB2 that can finish as a QB1 this week.
Patrick Mahomes: Last year, Mahomes did Mahomes things as usual. He was second in passing grade, third in yards per attempt, second in adjusted completion rate, and second in CPOE on deep throws. If you drafted Mahomes, you are starting him weekly. No matter what. Detroit’s pass defense was wretched last season, no matter how you slice it. They gave up the third-most passing yards, ninth-most passing yards, and second-highest yards per attempt. They particularly loved utilizing man coverage, with the third-most passing attempts defended in man (per Fantasy Points Data). Their top three corners in coverage snaps last year operated in man on 39.9-41.7% of their coverage snaps. With the arrival of Emmanuel Moseley and Cameron Sutton, we should see more zone coverage for Detroit this year, but they were both strong in man as well. Moseley and Sutton allowed 57.1% and 47.1% catch rates in man last season. Mahomes can shred man or zone equally, as he ranked fourth and third in EPA per play against each coverage type last season. Mahomes is a top-five quarterback option weekly.
Running Backs
David Montgomery: Montgomery takes over Detroit’s early down hammer role this season for Jamaal Williams. Montgomery was an elite tackle-breaker last season, but sadly, it didn’t do him much good. He was first in missed tackles forced per attempt but also finished with the lowest explosive run rate in the NFL (per Fantasy Points Data). Montgomery is a spinning top as he never goes down, but sadly, he never advances far upfield. Montgomery will have weeks where he finishes with RB1/2 stat lines, but this probably isn’t one of them. It helps his cause that Chris Jones is likely out, and Carlos Dunlap is gone, though. Each player ranked inside the top 70 highest-graded run defenders in the NFL (among 264 qualifying players), with Jones finishing seventh and Dunlap coming in at 67th. Williams was utilized on gap runs with 57.3% of his carries last season. If Montgomery receives similar usage, he’ll have uphill sledding. Last season, the Chiefs allowed the 12th-lowest yards after contact overall, the 12th-lowest success rate on gap runs, and the sixth-fewest rushing touchdowns. Montgomery is a volume-driven low-end RB2/high-end RB3.
Jahmyr Gibbs: Gibbs takes over the “D’Andre Swift role” in the offense. In this role, Swift ranked sixth in target share and 19th in route participation among running backs last season. This occurred while also mentioning that Swift bounced between the injury report and the Detroit dog house last season. Gibbs could surpass both numbers in his rookie season while also seeing some work on early downs. He’s an explosive receiver, ranking in the top ten yards per route run and receiving grade in each of his final three collegiate seasons (minimum 20 targets). Kansas City was putrid against receiving backs last season, allowed the most receptions to the position, the fourth-most receiving yards, and the seventh-most receiving touchdowns (tied). Gibbs is a strong RB2 this week with RB1 upside (especially in PPR formats).
Isiah Pacheco: Pacheco will reprise his role as the team’s early down grinder this year. He was efficient as a rusher, ranking 18th in explosive run rate and 14th in yards after contact per attempt (minimum 100 rushes per Fantasy Points Data). Last season, he only saw a 2.3% target share and a 14.8% route per dropback rate. If you’re plugging him into your lineup this season, it likely should be when he has an easy matchup on the ground. Luckily for Pacheco, Christmas came early, as the Lions couldn’t stop anyone on the ground last season. Detroit gave up the third-most rushing touchdowns, allowed the seventh-most missed tackles, and surrendered the fifth-highest yards before contact per attempt. Last season, 65.9% of Pacheco’s runs were on zone concept plays, as he was fourth-best in zone run success rate with the tenth-highest yards per carry on zone runs. Detroit allowed the sixth-highest success rate on zone runs. Pacheco is a low-end RB2/strong flex play.
Jerick McKinnon: McKinnon ran hot to close the year in 2022. If you’ve drafted him, it’s for his PPR appeal, but sadly, this isn’t a week to consider him in your flex. McKinnon had an 11.7% target share last season while leading the Kansas City backfield with a 43.1% route per dropback rate. He was 15th in yards per route run with a 23% target per route run rate. Detroit shut down backs in the passing game last season, allowing the second-fewest receptions and the lowest receiving yards to the position. They were also 17th in yards per reception while surrendering zero receiving touchdowns. McKinnon is a desperation flex play in PPR formats.
Wide Receivers
Amon-Ra St. Brown: St. Brown was a beast last season, finishing as the WR10 in fantasy points per game. He drew a 28.1% target share (11th-best) while leading all receivers in red zone targets after Week 9 last year. Last season, Kansas City was crushed by slot receivers, allowing the sixth-most receptions per game and the eighth-most fantasy points per game to slots. The Chiefs also permitted the 13th-highest missed tackles allowed per reception last year. St. Brown was tied for 21st in missed tackles forced among wide receivers in 2022. St. Brown is a WR1 who will run about 59% of his routes against Trent McDuffie, who gave up a 67.8% catch rate and 94.3 passer rating in slot coverage last season.
Josh Reynolds: Even in the deepest of formats, Reynolds is barely even on the flex radar. He finished outside the top 80 receivers last season in target share (12.1%, 81st) and target per route run rate (16.4%, 84th). If you’re touchdown hunting in those deep leagues, though, he isn’t the worst target to plug in. In the eight games he played at least 70% of the snaps, Reynolds saw ten red zone targets from Goff. The Chiefs gave up the third-most receiving touchdowns to wide receivers last year. Reynolds will run about 63% of his routes against Jaylen Watson (65.9% catch rate, 93.4 passer rating allowed in 2022) and L’Jarius Sneed (70.5% catch rate, 91.6 passer rating allowed in 2022).
Marvin Jones: Jones isn’t a spring chicken, and it showed last year as he limped to a WR69 (nice 🙂 finish in fantasy points per game. Jones could only muster a 14.7% target share from Trevor Lawrence. Jones won’t make it to any deep league starting lineup I have, but you could interest me in taking shots on him in Showdown DFS. Jones led Jacksonville in deep targets last year while sitting at 22nd in this statistical category among wide receivers. Kansas City allowed the fifth-worst CPOE on deep targets last year. If he houses a deep target from Goff in Week 1, you’ll be glad you took the shot. Jones will run nearly all of his routes against Watson and Sneed.
Skyy Moore: Fantasy GMs were hurt and wanting more last year as Andy Reid kept Moore capped all year in a part-time role. Every offseason report for Moore this summer has been glittering as he has been dubbed a starter in two wide receiver sets. This fact is huge as Kansas City was 24th in 11 personnel rate (three wide receivers on the field) last season. In the limited role we saw Moore in last year, he was immensely productive from an efficiency standpoint. Among 119 wide receivers with at least 150 routes run (per Fantasy Points Data), Moore ranked seventh in YAC per reception and tenth in missed tackles forced per reception. We’ll see how much Moore plays in the slot versus outside in this game, but when he’s lined up on the perimeter, he’ll face Cameron Sutton (50.7% catch rate, 69.6 passer rating allowed in 2022) and Jerry Jacobs (55.0% catch rate, 74.9 passer rating allowed in 2022). This isn’t a good matchup for Moore’s YAC game. Last year, Detroit allowed the fourth-lowest YAC per reception and fifth-lowest missed tackles allowed per reception. Moore is a WR4.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling: At this juncture, we know who Valdes-Scantling is. He’s a drop-prone (18th-most) field stretcher. Valdes-Scantling had a 13.3% target share last year, ranking seventh in aDOT and 14th in deep targets among receivers. He had the seventh-highest passer rating while sitting at 21st in YPRR when targeted 20+ yards downfield (minimum ten deep targets). With Detroit remaking their corner room, their 2022 stats against deep passing could be a tad noisy as they allowed the fourth-highest completion rate and second-most deep passing yards. I’m sorry if you’re stuck plugging in Valdes-Scantling in Week 1. He could surprise with a long touchdown. He’ll run about 60% of his routes against Sutton and Jacobs as a WR5/6.
Kadarius Toney: Andy Reid has declared Toney good to go for Week 1. Color me skeptical about that. In ten games last year with Kansas City (including the playoffs), Toney was an efficiency darling and target-per-route run king. He had 2.60 yards per route run and a ridiculous 29.4% TPRR. Those are beautiful numbers in a bubble. When you also add in the context that he surpassed 32% of the snaps played once, Toney’s scintillating efficiency stats get a heavy dose of cold water. If Toney plays Week 1, it’s likely on a strict snap count, so you’re praying he runs hot with targets on limited usage and scores a touchdown. Both of those things could happen, but that’s asking a lot.
Tight Ends
Sam LaPorta: Sammy Ballgame could have people deleting their “rookie tight ends never produce” tweets immediately in Week 1. Ballgame was a beast in college, ranking seventh in yards per route run and sixth in receiving grade in his final collegiate season. He lined up in the slot or out wide on 50.6% of his snaps, which makes him a perfect fit for T.J. Hockenson‘s old role. Last year with the Lions, Hockenson spent 54.5% of his snaps in the slot or as a perimeter wide receiver. Ballgame is a monster after the catch, ranking third in YAC and second in missed tackles forced last year among tight ends. Ballgame should have a field day against a defense with the 13th-highest missed tackles allowed rate last year while also giving up the tenth-highest yards per reception and MOST fantasy points in the NFL to slot tight ends. LaPorta is a TE2 that could post strong TE1 numbers in Week 1.
Travis Kelce: Well, crap. Our first-round draft picks are dropping like flies. Welcome to the 2023 NFL season. The injury chaos has taken over, and Week 1 isn’t even in the books. Someone, please make it stop. Turn off injuries for the remainder of the season. I’ll say that I doubt Kelce will play this week, but you never know. The Chiefs could also limit his snap count and deploy him in the red zone if he is active in Week 1. The simple fact is that if you drafted Kelce and he plays Week 1, you are likely starting him. Detroit allowed the tenth-most fantasy points, the fourth-highest catch rate, and the eight-highest yards per reception to tight ends in 2022.
Noah Gray: Avoid Noah Gray. If Kelce sits, I wouldn’t be picking up Gray with the idea of starting him. Even in limited action, Gray has not been an impressive player, with a career 0.78 yards per route run and 10.2% TPRR. If you need a streaming tight end, look for Juwan Johnson, Gerald Everett, or Logan Thomas (if you’re exceptionally desperate) on the waiver wire. Each player is below 45% rostered in Yahoo leagues and has a strong to exceptional matchup for Week 1.
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio
All data utilized in this article is courtesy of Fantasy Points Data, PFF, FTN, 4for4, Rotoviz, RBdsm.com, The Edge from the 33rd Team, and Playerprofiler.com unless otherwise specified.