Houston Texans vs. Baltimore Ravens
Pace and playcalling notes
- Todd Monken is taking over Ravens’ play calling duties after the team moved on from long-time offensive coordinator, Greg Roman
- Back in 2018 as a play-caller with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Monken called an offense that ranked 4th in pass-play rate on early downs and 1st in passing yards.
- In 2019 with the Browns, Monken’s offense ranked 12th in neutral pass rate and 19th in pace.
- Under Roman the last four seasons, the Ravens ranked 31st in neutral pace and 32nd in neutral pace play rate. Ergo, nowhere to go but up in a new regime.
- Bobby Slowik steps in as OC after spending the last four years as an offensive assistant/passing game coordinator with the 49ers.
- In 2022 he was the passing game coordinator for an offense that ranked 27th in neutral pace and 20th in neutral pass play rate.
Quarterbacks
Lamar Jackson: The Lamar Jackson revenge tour starts now. Lamar has a strong track record of coming out the gates blazing hot in Week 1 contests. Over his last four home openers, Jackson has posted point totals of 31, 27.5, 32.3 and 43. With Monken calling the shots and healthy legitimate WRs at his disposal, I don’t see how the Houston Texans slow down the Ravens’ dual-threat quarterback.
C.J. Stroud: C.J. Stroud is a fantasy football player to avoid for Week 1 of the 2023 NFL season. His opening matchup against the Baltimore Ravens on the road is far from ideal, making it hard to trust a late-round QB when you can’t confidently start him in the first week. Additionally, Stroud is facing a severe lack of weapons, with Dalton Schultz and Nico Collins as his top two pass-catching options. This is a stark contrast to the talented receivers he had in college, such as Chris Olave, Garrett Wilson, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Marvin Harrison Jr. Stroud is likely to encounter growing pains as he adjusts to a less experienced and talented receiving corps. All these factors combined with some offensive line injuries make him a risky fantasy option for Week 1. Kenyon Greene and Juice Scruggs were both expected to be starting options, but both have been placed on IR prior to Week 1.
Running Backs
Dameon Pierce: All the reasons to be sour on Stroud also apply to the Texans starting RB. Except the matchup might be even worse for Pierce because the Ravens’ strengths are certainly in their front seven led by linebacker Roquan Smith. From Week 9 onward (after the Ravens acquired linebacker Roquan Smith), the Ravens were 3rd overall in defensive DVOA (9th in pass, 2nd in run) in 2022. This defense has injuries in their secondary, so that’s the only way I can envision the Texans moving the ball successfully, especially with Baltimore offering a lackluster pass rush. I warned the masses about drafting Pierce too aggressively in redraft formats for this exact matchup, and I feel strongly that his value is going to dip dramatically after he inevitably busts in Week 1. Pierce needs to ride the pine in Week 1 as a 10-point road dogs.
J.K. Dobbins: Must start in Week 1. Dobbins has been kept in bubble wrap for the entire preseason, with the expectations set that he will assume RB1 duties in the Baltimore backfield. The Texans’ run defense has been a bottom-5 unit over the past three seasons, so Dobbins should be set for a very productive day rushing. The Texans tried to plug up their interior with the additions of Sheldon Rankins and Hassan Ridgeway this offseason, but it remains to be seen if new head coach Demeco Ryans can turn this unit into the stingy 49ers run defense of the south with overall inferior personnel.
Wide Receivers:
Zay Flowers: He’s a first-round rookie WR with a clear path to targets. He’s the only Ravens pass-catcher that hasn’t missed significant time this preseason with any injury concerns, so I like him as my highest-ranked Baltimore WR entering Week 1. The best ability is availability… which has not been the case for either of his teammates Odell Beckham Jr. or Rashod Bateman.
Rashod Bateman: Before I can click the button on Bateman, I need to see that he is fully healthy with zero limitations. The Texans have an underrated secondary – 15th in defensive EPA/dropback on defense in 2022 – and that makes me lean toward sitting non-Flowers Ravens WRs in Week 1. Very much want to see how the targets are distributed with the starting offense playing a full allotment of snaps.
Odell Beckham Jr.: The Texans boast a myriad of talented cornerbacks from Steven Nelson, Tavierre Thomas, Derek Stingley and Shaquill Griffin. So again, the individual WR matchups for the Ravens WRs I do not love. However, if I were to bet on a one finding the end zone, it would probably be OBJ, given his red-zone prowess the last time we saw him healthy with the LA Rams. Still, I’d rather just leave him on my bench as I anxiously await the target distribution in the Ravens’ new-look offense.
Nico Collins: Collins is WR1 in Houston and he owns a juicy matchup on deck vs. the Ravens’ banged-up secondary in Week 1. With C.J. Stroud under center: Collins has posted a 35% target share this preseason. Considering the Ravens’ lack of pass rush, I think Stroud will have enough time to deliver the ball to Collins in full-blown comeback mode versus sub-par cornerbacks. Low-end WR4/FLEX option in Week 1.
Tank Dell: It’s still unclear where Dell sits on the Texans depth chart with Robert Woods and Noah Brown seeing plenty of snaps with the starters during the preseason. It’s just a matter of time until Dell usurps those players, but I doubt we see it off the bat in Week 1.
Tight Ends
Dalton Schultz: Schultz is the quintessential definition of a floor play at tight end. He will likely see plenty of volume running the majority of routes among Houston’s tight ends. But the fact that he was constantly subbed out in red zone packages during the preseason, shy me away from his upside, especially with almost zero YAC to work with. To add more concerns, the Ravens’ strengths are at linebacker and safety between Kyle Hamilton, Marcus Williams, Patrick Queen and Roquan Smith. Considering those will be Schultz’s matchups in most coverage looks, I don’t LOVE his chances of having a super productive game. Low-end fantasy TE1 option for Week 1.
Mark Andrews: If Andrews is healthy enough to play, you start him. Simple as that. Even with the added WR competition, he’s the clear alpha and Lamar Jackson‘s favorite target in the passing game. But if Andrews were to miss in any capacity…Isaiah Likely would become a no-doubt top-12 option. He played three games w/o Mark Andrews last season and averaged nearly 16 PPR points per and 8.3 targets per game.
Update: Andrews is unlikely to play Sunday, per reports, making Likely a strong pivot for those rostering Andrews.
Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears
Pace and playcalling notes
- Matt LaFleur has called plays during his entire four-year tenure as the Packers head coach
- But with Aaron Rodgers as the quarterback, the team has run extremely slow with the future Hall of Fame quarterback often adjusting at the line of scrimmage while letting the clock wind down. Case in point, GB ranks dead last in neutral pace over the last four seasons. I’d expect them to play faster with Love under center, because he’s more likely to just run the straightforward play with less experience than Rodgers.
- They also ranked 8th in pass-play rate under neutral game scripts, with a heavy emphasis on yards after the catch.
- Per ESPN, GB ranks second in the NFL in percentage of receiving yards coming after the catch (52%) over the past four seasons. Expect this to make life easy on Love.
- Under Luke Getsy in Year 1, the Bears ranked in the bottom 10 in neutral pace, while ranking dead last in neutral pass-play rate (47.6%). This doesn’t come as a surprise with the mobile Justin Fields under center, and no WRs to throw the ball to.
- But copying and pasting the Bears” run-heavy” approach is malpractice because they were forced to do so based on what they had to work with.
- We are going to see a much more balanced approach in 2023, with Getsy’s coaching tree coming from the LeFleur-led Packers from 2019-2021.
Quarterbacks
Jordan Love: Love is a last-resort streaming quarterback in Week 1 against the Chicago Bears as a floor play. Chicago’s defense has made upgrades on the personnel side to improve from their 32nd DVOA ranking from a season ago. But it remains to be seen how quickly those improvements will take shape, giving Love and company an opportunity to take advantage. The Bears have the 31st-ranked DL per PFF due to a severe lack of pass-rush juice, which should allow Love ample time in the pocket to get the ball to his flurry of young playmakers. Unfortunately, Christian Watson will miss, limiting Love’s upside.
Justin Fields: With some injuries hitting the Bears’ offensive line during the preseason – no Teven Jenkins and Cody Whitehair moving from center to guard – expect the Packers to make life tough on the Bears offense and Justin Fields in Week 1. They finished 8th in pressure rate last season. Against starting Bears QB Justin Fields – who has a propensity to take sacks – Green Bay’s defense has scored 9, 10 and 15 fantasy points in their three previous matchups versus Chicago under current defensive coordinator, Joe Barry. Fields was pressured on 40% of his dropbacks versus Green Bay in 2022, posting 0-3 TD-INT ratio. The Bears QB will likely be fine with his own rushing added to his fantasy profile, but I’d hardly say this is the spot or game where we see Fields’ massive NFL leap as a passer.
Running Backs
Aaron Jones: Jones has been seldom used with the first-team offense during the preseason, twice just playing one snap before being taken out of the game entirely. His fantasy value will remain through his uber-efficient rushing effectiveness and his proficiency as one of the league’s best RB pass-catchers. He ripped through the Bears defense early last season with 132 yards on 15 carries. Jones followed up with a strong receiving game, catching five targets for 24 yards in the second matchup. With A.J. Dillon taking over red zone duties, Jones settles in the mid-range RB2 territory in a plus-matchup.
A.J. Dillon: Dillon ran wild versus the Bears defense the last time he faced them, going for 93 yards and 1 TD on 18 carries. A heavy dosage of Dillon seems to be the Packers’ fancy because earlier in the season he saw the exact same workload of 18 carries (albeit for 61 yards). The 2022 game logs suggest we should expect a healthy dosage of Dillon versus a beatable Bears defensive line, as the Packers offense looks for balance in the post-Aaron Rodgers era. If you are in a pinch at RB2 or FLEX, Dillon is a sneaky start I like a lot for Week 1. His projected workload and red-zone usage in the second half of last season present fantasy managers several different paths to early-season fantasy production.
Khalil Herbert: The Packers were atrocious against the run last season, finishing 31st in DVOA. And I am not entirely convinced they have totally revamped the unit into a stone wall that the Bears cannot overcome. In Chicago’s last four matchups versus current GB defensive coordinator, Joe Barry, the Bears have averaged 153 rushing yards per game. Herbert started one of those games back as a rookie in 2021, when he rushed for 97 yards on 19 carries. As the clear-cut RB1 in the offense on early downs based on preseason usage, Herbert can easily flirt with mid-range RB2 numbers, given his projected workload of at least 13 touches. Herbert has played eight games over the last 2 seasons when he has seen 13-plus touches. The Bears RB1 has averaged 15.1 fantasy points per game (half-PPR) in those contests. Fantasy RB1 numbers.
Roschon Johnson: Don’t get cute looking to start Roschon Johnson in Week 1. It seems like he has earned a role on the starting offense in third/receiving downs, but that role may not offer enough for fantasy football purposes. Keep in mind, Fields is a running quarterback, and he is less likely to check the ball down to his RB. Only the Eagles threw fewer passes to RBs last season than the Bears. Leave RJ on the bench and keep tabs on how his role grows as the season progresses.
Wide Receivers
D.J. Moore: As the clear-cut No. 1 option in the Bears passing game, D.J. offers a target volume floor with spike week potential should he and Fields connect on a big play or two. A WR2 start for fantasy is appropriate for the ex-Panthers WR.
Darnell Mooney: At this time last season, Mooney was penciled as the WR1 in the Bears offense. And although he ranked 12th in air yards share (37%) and 15th in target share (27%) in his 11 healthy games played, it was not enough to vault him to fantasy production in an anemic offense. If anything the concentrated usage suggests Moore will be clearly favored over every other Bears receiver. Until we see Mooney manage to carve out targets alongside Moore, he needs to stay on fantasy benches. He has not topped 45 yards in his last three games versus the Packers defense.
Christian Watson: Watson faced the Bears twice last season, with one massive game and one completely forgettable performance. An up-and-down season is firmly in Watson’s range of outcomes, with plenty of spike weeks followed by a few duds based on his style of play. But as the clear No. 1 downfield target as the team’s air yards leader during the preseason, he has to be in starting lineups come Week 1 for another chance at a blow-up performance. We’ve already seen him blow up versus the Bears – 24-plus fantasy points back in Week 13 of the 2022 season – and his high target rate per route run as a rookie cannot go unnoticed. As much as we are encouraged by some of the other pieces on the young Packers offense, Watson is the one with the most experience and track record to deliver from the get-go. Works strongly in his favor; the Bears defense ranked dead last in expected points added versus the passing game, allowing a league-high 8.0 yards gained per pass attempt. Editor’s Note: Watson has been ruled OUT for Week 1.
Romeo Doubs: Doubs is dealing with a hamstring injury, which puts his status for Week 1 in doubt. Lower body injuries are also tricky to address, especially with their high rate of recurring during play. Not worth the risk even if he’s deemed healthy enough to play in Week 1. The expectation is that he is going to play, but I’d much rather take a shot on one or two GB rookies instead.
Jayden Reed: I’d much rather take advantage of Watson’s injury by stashing or even starting Jayden Reed. The second-round rookie WR was the slot starter in 11 personnel with the Packers during the preseason Reed checks off all the boxes of a Day 3 sleeper WR, but the Green Bay Packers couldn’t wait until Day 3 draft him in the 2023 NFL Draft. They selected Reed 50th overall. Expect the Michigan State product to step in and be the immediate No. 2 WR. He broke out at an early age, at 18 years old while playing alongside NFL talent at Western Michigan. In 2021, Reed blew up as a junior, with 1,026 yards and ten receiving touchdowns en route to a career-high 34% dominator rating. His 23-year-old age isn’t ideal, but his experience might just help him hit the ground running sooner rather than later, especially considering that Reed flashed ability as a downfield threat with a top-5 deep target rate (29%) in his draft class in 2022. Make sure he’s not hanging out on any waiver wires. Could be in line for a big Week 1.
Tight Ends
Cole Kmet: Kmet should see a favorable route-running role in the Bears’ offense, but the additional bodies at tight end such as Robert Tonyan and WRs added to the offense create doubt on how effective he will be on a weekly basis. Despite posting the league’s highest route participation (84 percent) last season, he posted a horrible 16 percent target rate – identical to Foster Moreau. He also caught five red-zone touchdowns, despite just nine red-zone targets – a mark that ranked outside the top-15 at the position. All in all, Kmet finished as a top-12 tight end in just 25 percent of his games played (22nd). Kmet is going to remain a TD-or-bust tight end unless we see him really separate from the other pass-catchers in Chicago’s offense. Given he has surpassed 50 receiving yards once versus the Packers in his last four games with zero TDs, I am not optimistic this is a spot to start him.
Luke Musgrave: Packers TE Luke Musgrave is the clear-cut TE1 in Green Bay with an elite role. He ran a route on 100% of Jordan Love dropbacks in Week 2 of the preseason, indicating his status as a full-time player. Running enough routes is critical in finding breakout TEs, and Musgrave’s role and impressive college production profile suggest he is on the cusp of immediate impact. Stash him if he’s on waivers and start him if you need a Week 1 flier. He’s also the perfect punt tight end on DraftKings, egregiously priced at $2,900. Better yet, no Watson should create more opportunities for Musgrave to produce.
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Denver Broncos
Pace and playcalling notes
- The Raiders opened the season (Weeks 1-11) ranking fourth in neutral passing rate. McDaniels changed course in Week 12. After that point, Las Vegas was 12th in neutral rushing rate.
- During Sean Payton’s final three seasons in New Orleans, his offense ranked 29th in neutral pace and only 18th in neutral passing rate. The passing rate could perk up this year if Russell Wilson can bounce back, but this could be a woefully slow offense.
Quarterbacks
Russell Wilson: There were not a lot of positive takeaways from Russell Wilson‘s 2022 season. Except for his two matchups versus the Las Vegas Raiders, when he posted solid numbers. His highest scoring fantasy game came in Week 4 versus Las Vegas (26.5 fantasy points). The second matchup wasn’t as great statistically for fantasy, but he still tossed for 247 yards and completed a season-high 77% of his passes. Wilson can beat this Raiders defense, especially when they are trotting out the likes of Marcus Peters and third-round rookie, Jakorian Bennett, as their two starting CBs. Las Vegas ranked 31st in pass defense DVOA in 2022, so Wilson should be able to start the season off on the right foot as a high-end fantasy QB2 in Sean Payton’s debut as Denver’s head coach.
Jimmy Garoppolo: The new Raiders quarterback will maintain his role as the ultimate game manager in Sin City so don’t expect him to melt faces in fantasy football anytime soon. Because by himself, Jimmy GQ – other than his handsome looks – doesn’t have much to offer besides supporting others for fantasy football purposes. He was the QB21 in points per game (15.7) in 2022, which was one point more than his expected points per game output (14.7). Consider it the Kyle Shanahan effect. Garoppolo’s 7.9 yards per attempt ranked fourth behind only Tua Tagovailoa, Patrick Mahomes, and 49ers’ 7th-round pick, Brock Purdy. Garoppolo’s efficiency numbers have been boosted substantially playing in the 49ers’ offense, and that has never translated to consistent fantasy success. Jimmy G has never finished higher than fantasy QB14 and has played 16 games once in his entire NFL career. He is also going to need a group of receivers that can create yards after the catch after he led the NFL in YAC passing percentage (59%). But luckily for him, he has avoided the injury bug entering Week 1. And he has an underrated set of pass-catchers to throw to, highlighted by one of the NFL’s best WRs in the game, Davante Adams. Still, the matchup on the road versus the Broncos is one that I would try to get away from starting Jimmy G. They own the 8th-lowest implied team total on the slate. When Derek Carr led this offense versus the Broncos last season, he posted one dud (11.5 fantasy points) followed by his second-best outing of the year (20.3 fantasy points). Garoppolo will probably end up somewhere in the middle, but likely play enough to support the Raiders skill players in our fantasy lineups.
Running Backs
Josh Jacobs: Until we see another Raiders running back eat into Josh Jacobs‘s workload, he needs to be treated like a full-blown bell cow. That was the case last season when he led the NFL in touches. That’s concerning for his long-term availability, but he should be a locked-and-loaded fantasy RB1 for Week 1. In two games versus Denver last year, Jacobs averaged nearly 25 fantasy points per game. Start him.
Javonte Williams: Javonte Williams has made a miraculous return from his multi-knee ligament tear from the 2022 season. His speedy recovery allowed him to play in the preseason, with favorable usage as both a rusher and receiver. On the first drive, he had 3 targets and one carry over the 1st four plays. Then Perine entered the game. Over the first 23 plays, it was a 50/50 split essentially with Williams (56%, 8 RB opportunities) and Perine (47%, 3 RB opportunities). Perine played more receiving downs…but Williams was still peppered with targets like last year’s pre-injury. However, I would hardly say that Juggernaut Javonte is 100% back to fantasy stardom with him still splitting work with Perine and potentially undrafted free agent, Jaleel McLaughlin. The Raiders’ run defense is no world-beater – 24th in PFF’s defensive line rankings – so I understand the appeal of starting Williams, but he’s probably more of a floor play than ceiling option with it being his first real game back from the injury. A 20-touch guaranteed workload is likely too aggressive to project.
Samaje Perine: Perine was viewed during draft season as a stopgap for fantasy teams that went with a zero-RB approach. But a crazy return by Williams has forced Perine back into the RB3 ranks with only a receiving role seemingly in his possession outside the occasionally early down rush attempt. I’d keep him on the bench, with his stand-alone role likely not enough to warrant FLEX/RB3 consideration.
Wide Receivers
Courtland Sutton: In Weeks 1-5 without Jerry Jeudy fully healthy last season, Sutton’s target share was 28%. In Weeks 10-12 (Jeudy also missed these games), Sutton’s target share was back up to 27%. But even in the games where Sutton commanded the lion’s share of looks, he came up short more often than not. He was completely forgotten in the red zone – 11 RZ targets, one red-zone TD before Week 18 – and he failed to capitalize on 1200-plus air yards. Considering Jeudy is likely going to miss Week 1 due to severe hamstring injury, it’s difficult to not view Sutton as a fantasy WR3 at worst with volume coming his way, with room for more if he can take advantage of a beatable Raiders secondary and positive TD regression on his side. Sutton posted solid stat lines in his two matchups versus LV in 2022, both that also occurred without Jeudy healthy. He averaged five receptions for 66 yards on 7 targets, while also scoring one of his two total touchdowns from the 2022 season.
Marvin Mims Jr. Second-round rookie WR Marvin Mims is the future and the future is NOW. Jerry Jeudy is injured. Courtland Sutton is past his prime. Denver traded up for Mims in the draft as the first pick of the Sean Payton era. Top-24 WR in 2023. Book it. And his production will start in Week 1, as a full-time player in the Broncos offense. I’ve already alluded to the cornerback matchups against Marcus Peters and Jakorian Bennett that Mims can fully take advantage of with his elite speed. Peters won’t know what hit him. I am trying to find a spot to FLEX Mims’ upside in Week 1.
Jerry Jeudy: Initial diagnosis of Jeudy’s hamstring injury painted a grim picture of his availability in Week 1. Don’t hold your breath hoping he makes a quick return where he can be placed confidently in lineups come Sunday morning.
Davante Adams: Will Patrick Surtain make Davante Adams a bust in Week 1? Probably not. In both games versus the Broncos in 2022, Adams went over 100 receiving yards. Nearly 23 fantasy points per game. Keep him in all lineups.
Jakobi Meyers: Meyers ranks 26th in targets and 24th in target share (21.4%) over the last two seasons. He inked a 3-year deal with the Raiders this offseason, reuniting him with his former Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels. He joins a Las Vegas offense filled with playmakers, including Josh Jacobs, Davante Adams, and Hunter Renfrow. And that offense will be led by ex-Patriots and 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo. And that’s where things could be problematic for Meyers, who has been the target hog in a lackluster Patriots offense over the last two seasons. It’s hard to envision Meyers commanding a 23% target share (a mark he has reached the last two seasons) with Adams’ alpha presence in the offense, along with Renfrow chipping in. However, the Waller trade suggests Meyers could still end up as the clear-cut No. 2 – which is a pretty enticing role. I’d imagine Meyers still plays primarily on the outside, with Renfrow operating from the slot in 11 personnel, which means Meyers won’t leave the field (as he did in the preseason). That makes Meyers a fringy WR4 option in Week 1 with him most likely taking over the Mack Hollins role. Hollins finished 10th in routes run per dropback (93%) and commanded 1,153 air yards as the clear-cut No. 2 wide receiver in the Raiders offense last season. He finished last season as WR41 in half-point scoring, which seems like a nice floor projection for Meyers’s season-long numbers. There’s more competition in the offense for targets, but Meyers is the superior talent after averaging nearly 2.0 yards per route run in 2022. The Surtain-Adams matchup could also force targets toward Meyers in Week 1, as it did for Hollins the last time LV played the Broncos. Hollins commanded nine targets for 6 catches and 52 yards in that Week 11 contest.
Hunter Renfrow: Renfrow is this year’s Curtis Samuel. Everybody is just going to completely forget that Renfrow leveraged his savvy route-running to a 111-1096-9 stat line in 2021 because he was never healthy at any point in 2022. Don’t be that person who overlooks Renfrow. He showed in Week 18 that he still has “it” going a perfect 7-for-7 for a season-high 63 yards and 1 TD. We still don’t know what his role will be with Meyers added to the offense, so he cannot be started in Week 1. But if he sees great usage from the slot (that’s what I am projecting) look out for him on the Week 2 waiver wire.
Tight Ends
Greg Dulcich: The time is now to fade Greg Dulcich. The new coaching staff has no allegiance to him as the TE1 on the roster. During the team’s first preseason game, Dulcich only ran a route on 50% of Russell Wilson‘s dropbacks. He was also out-snapped 10 vs 15 and out-targeted (0 vs. 3) by Adam Trautman (who was brought over from New Orleans). There are MUCH better tight ends to play in Week 1 with full-time roles. Stay away from Dulcich until he shows a usable role in Denver’s offense.
Michael Mayer: Like Dulcich, Mayer saw discouraging usage in the preseason by splitting snaps with veteran tight end Austin Hooper. It’s problematic with three decent WRs atop the depth chart for Meyer to have a major role in Year 1, let alone in Week 1 of the 2023 season.
Philadelphia Eagles vs. New England Patriots
Pace and playcalling notes
- Bill O’Brien will take over the play calling after the disaster the Patriots offense was under Matt Patricia and Joe Judge in 2022.
- I don’t think it’s necessary to dive deep into the specific metrics when it comes down to O’Brien’s scheme style etc. outside the fact that he does tend to lean toward heavy shotgun formations.
- And he tends to exploit mismatches based on his offensive personnel (novel idea), so expect plenty of 2TE formations.
- In 2019 with the Texans, O’Brien’s offense ranked 7th in neutral pace, 30th in no-huddle, and top-10 in neutral rush rate.
- He’s an offensive mind – and a legitimate offensive coach – which is an automatic upgrade for the entire Patriots offense in virtually every aspect.
- What Mac Jones did in Year 1 under Josh McDaniels is much more indicative of what offense can be. The unit ranked top-10 in EPA/dropback and red-zone scoring percentage.
Quarterbacks
Jalen Hurts: The only thing that could have gone better for Jalen Hurts this offseason is if the Eagles upgraded the No. 3 WR position. But if that is your biggest concern after nearly winning the NFL MVP and going toe-to-toe with Patrick Mahomes in the Super Bowl, things are pretty good. Hurts has new options in the backfield, and the Eagles should be able to lean more on their running backs in the passing game than they were able to when Miles Sanders was in town. All reports out of camp indicate that Hurts is taking yet another step forward as a passer, which would give him an even higher ceiling to pair with the high floor offered by his rushing ability. A Week 1 matchup against the Patriots – with Bill Belichick having months to prepare – isn’t ideal, but Hurts is matchup-proof at this point.
Mac Jones: The aforementioned Patriots starting quarterback was “somehow” able to fend off the Bailey Zappe hive mind to maintain QB1 duties in New England. While Jones’ second year in the NFL was a massive disappointment, the coaching and personnel changes will go a long way for the New England Patriots to be at least a “functioning” offense in 2023. But Week 1 will present an extremely tough challenge for Jones and company, versus arguably the league’s best defense. The matchup in the trenches is particularly worrisome, as the Patriots OL – having just placed tackle Riley Reiff on IR – has glaring issues, specifically at the tackle positions. Not ideal against a defense that led all teams in sacks and added the best player in the draft with Jalen Carter this offseason.
Running Backs
D’Andre Swift: Swift is the favorite to lead the Eagles in touches this season, unless he isn’t. Eagles HC Nick Sirianni has been playing things close to the vest, and the reality is that no one really knows who the lead back in Philadelphia is going to be except for Sirianni and his staff. And even they may not know. The Eagles released a depth chart that listed Swift, Kenneth Gainwell, Rashaad Penny AND Boston Scott as four co-starters. And while I don’t expect Scott to have a big role, I do think they’re going to use all four backs, especially the first three. This could be a frustrating backfield all season, and it’s not one I’m necessarily excited to target in Week 1 while we see how things play out.
Kenneth Gainwell: See: D’Andre Swift. This backfield is going to be frustrating all season if everyone stays healthy. The Eagles love Gainwell, but they also know what he is: solid and reliable if not spectacular. He hits the holes that are there and is reliable as a pass catcher, but he isn’t necessarily explosive. He’s valuable, and he started to take snaps and touches away from Miles Sanders late last season, but he doesn’t scream “RB1.” He’s going to have a role in this offense, but he doesn’t offer the weekly ceiling that fantasy managers want or need.
Rashaad Penny: Penny’s value looked like it was going to the moon before the Eagles acquired D’Andre Swift. Now, he’s an efficient runner and a home run threat on an offense that needs both with the departure of Miles Sanders, but he’s also sharing the RB room with 1. An incumbent RB who led the team in snaps in the Super Bowl, 2. A RB the team traded for during the NFL Draft, 3. A veteran RB entering his fifth season with the team who is good for three TDs against the New York Giants every season. Oh, and he doesn’t excel as a pass catcher, which is something each of other three RBs excels at. Oh (yes, we’re running it back for emphasis), and that Red Zone role you’re interested in? His new QB rushed for 13 touchdowns last season. Penny is probably going to have weeks where he finishes as an RB1 and weeks where he finishes as an RB4 this year. Week 1 against a stout New England run defense probably isn
Boston Scott: Scott is at the bottom of the pecking order in a crowded backfield. Start him whenever the Eagles play the New York Giants and leave him on the waiver wire at all other times unless there’s an injury in this backfield that opens up playing time.
Rhamondre Stevenson: An overwhelmed OL might hurt the Patriots in the running game, but that does not mean Rhamondre Stevenson will struggle from a fantasy production standpoint. Remember, Stevenson is the team’s primary pass-catcher out of the backfield, and you can stay assured that Mac Jones will be looking his way early and often as the Eagles’ pass rush gets after him. The Eagles allowed nearly five receptions per game to opposing RBs in 2022. The Pats RB1 finished third in route participation (58%) and targets (82) last season. He remains a low-end RB1 for Week 1, with the fourth-most projected receptions in Week 1 among RBs. Linebacker is the only hole on the Eagles defense, which can be exposed by explosive running backs in the passing game. Stevenson is expected to play Sunday despite dealing with a stomach bug this week.
Ezekiel Elliott: We have not seen Zeke and Stevenson play alongside one another yet, with the former Dallas Cowboys running back sitting out the team’s preseason contests. Elliott’s best bet for fantasy is going to be through TDs, and that’s a wager you do not want to make in this matchup. The Patriots have the 10th-lowest implied team total at home, suggesting TDs might be far and few between.
Wide Receivers
A.J. Brown: The A.J. Brown breakout was real in 2022, and it was spectacular. In his first season with Jalen Hurts and the Eagles, Brown set career highs in receptions, targets, yards, and touchdowns (tying the 11 he scored in 2020). The Eagles made changes in their backfield but are essentially running back the same three-headed passing attack that features Brown. DeVonta Smith and TE Dallas Goedert. Brown should be locked and loaded as a WR1 in your lineups every week.
DeVonta Smith: Smith is the 1B to A.J. Brown‘s 1A in Philadelphia, and there were plenty of targets to go around for both last season. And with no major changes to the passing attack other than the addition of Olamide Zaccheaus to compete with Quez Watkins for the No. 3 WR role, it should be more of the same in 2023.
Quez Watkins: Watkins disappointed in 2022 and, despite reportedly winning the No. 3 WR job in training camp, is likely to split time with the newly acquired Olamide Zaccheaus this season. He’s a GPP DFS dart throw given his big play ability, but he isn’t someone you should be relying on.
Olamide Zaccheaus: Zaccheaus will have a role with the Eagles this season, but he’s more of an injury handcuff than anything else at this point. Quez Watkins figures to see the majority of the snaps in the slot, and a rotational WR4 isn’t very valuable in fantasy.
JuJu Smith-Schuster: Hard to say how long JuJu Smith-Schuster will remain the team’s WR1, given his doomsday timetable regarding his knee health. But until it goes #kaboom, he should be viewed as the target leader in this offense in Week 1. That gives him fantasy WR4 appeal against the Eagles, who he last faced in the Super Bowl. Smith-Schuster commanded a team-high nine targets (38% target share) for seven receptions and 53 receiving yards.
DeVante Parker: The strength of the Eagles’ secondary is its two perimeter cornerbacks between Darius Slay and James Bradberry. Ergo, you’d want to target Patriots slot WRs like JuJu or tight ends, and not the typical “X” boundary ones like DeVante Parker. So even though Parker will likely see preferred usage from routes run and snaps played, I don’t envision Jones jamming targets to his big-bodied wideout blanketed by man coverage.
Tight Ends
Dallas Goedert: IF he can stay healthy, Dallas Goedert could top 1,000 yards receiving this season. But he has missed time in each of the last three seasons, so there is real concern there. He’s the clear third option in this passing attack after the duo of A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, and he should be penciled in as your starting TE each week.
Hunter Henry: If there’s any non-Stevenson Patriots player, I’d feel okay about starting in Week 1, it would be Hunter Henry. He is the clear TE1 for the Patriots with Mike Gesicki missing time due to a shoulder injury. Henry is by far Jones’ preferred red-zone target, and one receiving TD is enough to vault any tight end into TE1 territory. Henry has been with the Patriots through the entire Mac Jones era, and the two have consistently flashed their chemistry through training camp. Considering Henry has been Jones’ favorite RZ target over the past two seasons, he has a TD upside in half-PPR scoring formats. The Patriots tight end should maintain a full-time role after running a route on 70% of dropbacks over the last two seasons (11th).
Mike Gesicki: If he didn’t miss so much time in camp, I’d feel much better about Gesicki. But given questionable health and currently unknown role on offense. The ex-Dolphins tight end is just a wait and see proposition, that should remain on waiver wires until further notice.
