Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Minnesota Vikings
Pace and playcalling notes
- Last year, Tampa Bay was fourth in neutral passing rate. During Dave Canales’ tenure as the passing game coordinator and quarterbacks coach in Seattle (2020-2022), the Seahawks were eighth in neutral passing rate. Add in that Baker Mayfield and Kyle Trask are nowhere close to Tom Brady and Russell Wilson regarding talent, and the regression to a run-balanced offense is easy to envision.
- The Vikings were third in neutral passing rate and second in red zone passing rate last season.
Quarterbacks
Baker Mayfield: This former No. 1 overall pick is set to make his debut with the Buccaneers, the fourth team he’s played for in the last two years. Mayfield played poorly in seven games with the Panthers last season but then played reasonably well in four late-season starts with the Rams and a heavily depleted supporting cast. There’s a flickering candle of hope that Mayfield can be a competent starter for the Bucs this season, but fantasy managers would be wise to monitor Mayfield from afar for now. There’s simply too much risk and too little reward to using Mayfield in fantasy. He hasn’t thrown for 300 or more yards in a game since October 2021, and he hasn’t thrown three or more TD passes in a game since December 2020.
Kirk Cousins: A metronome of fantasy production, Cousins has finished QB11, QB11 and QB7 in fantasy scoring over the past three seasons. His Week 1 matchup against the Buccaneers appears neutral, but there are a couple of factors that make Cousins an appealing Week 1 play. First, the Vikings might not be able to lean on their running game now that Alexander Mattison is replacing Dalvin Cook as the starter, backed up by an unproven group of RBs. Second, the Vikings will be at home, and weather won’t be a factor in their domed environs. Consider Captain Kirk a low-end QB1.
Running Backs
Rachaad White: After sharing a backfield with Leonard Fournette as a rookie, White appears to be Tampa’s lead RB entering his second season. Not that we should expect Derrick Henry-type usage for White, but his investors should be encouraged that the Buccaneers have thus far elected not to sign a free-agent RB such as Kareem Hunt or … well, Fournette. White figures to get at least 12-15 touches against the Vikings this week, and White’s pass-catching skill could be put to good use against a Minnesota defense that gave up the ninth-most receiving yards to RBs in 2022. Regard White as a midrange RB2 this week.
Sean Tucker: It’s too early to consider using Tucker, an undrafted free agent from Syracuse. But Tucker has apparently won the No. 2 RB job behind starter Rachaad White, and it will be interesting to see how the Buccaneers use the rookie. Tucker almost certainly would have been drafted if not for a heart condition that was detected during a predraft workout. But the condition is said to be manageable, and Tucker has a chance to establish himself as a useful fantasy asset.
Alexander Mattison: After spending the first four years of his NFL career backing up Dalvin Cook, Mattison has inherited a starting role. In six previous career starts, Mattison averaged 79.5 rushing yards and 36.0 receiving yards, topped the 100-yard rushing mark twice, and scored five touchdowns. Mattison is a jack-of-all-trades type who isn’t considered particularly gifted in any area but does everything well enough. The Buccaneers aren’t an easy matchup, but nor are they a prohibitive matchup. Roll with Mattison as a midrange RB2.
Ty Chandler: The fleet-footed Chandler appears to have earned the Vikings’ No. 2 RB job. He didn’t have an illustrious college career, but Chandler did run for more than 1,000 yards as a fifth-year senior at North Carolina. Speed is Chandler’s calling card, as he clocked a 4.38 at the NFL Scouting Combine. We’ll need a prove-it game before regarding Chandler as fantasy viable, but at least he’s positioned to give us one.
Wide Receivers
Chris Godwin: There’s little question that Godwin is a high-quality receiver, but will the Buccaneers have enough passing volume to make Godwin a valuable fantasy asset? Tom Brady led the NFL in pass attempts in 2021 and 2022 with more than 700 throws in each of those seasons. That works out to an average of more than 40 pass attempts per game. In 2019, Jameis Winson led the NFL in pass attempts when he was the Buccaneers’ quarterback. In 2020, Brady was second in pass attempts. So for the last four years, Godwin’s quarterback has either ranked first or second in pass attempts. It’s hard to envision Baker Mayfield finishing top 10 in pass attempts, let alone leading the league. So, what happens if Godwin is playing with a quarterback who throws 550 passes instead of 700? Let’s not worry about that this week, since Godwin has an appealing matchup against a Minnesota defense that ranked 27th in DVOA against the pass last year and gave up the third-most fantasy points to WRs.
Mike Evans: Please refer to the Chris Godwin blurb above for an ominous message about a potential drop-off in target volume for Godwin and Evans this year. Evans has topped the 1,000-yard receiving mark in all nine of his NFL seasons, but he endured a career-long 11-game touchdown drought last season and was borderline unplayable for fantasy over the second half of the season. Evans just turned 30, so it’s not as if we should be worried about him tumbling over the age cliff, but he’s not the slam-dunk fantasy investment that he used to be. Still, he’s a worthwhile fantasy play this week against a Vikings pass defense that was bad last year and hasn’t made enough personnel upgrades in the offseason to significantly improve.
Justin Jefferson: In his three seasons in the league, Jefferson has finished WR6, WR4 and WR1 in fantasy scoring. In 50 career regular-season games, Jefferson has averaged 6.5 receptions, 96.5 receiving yards and 0.5 touchdowns per contest. There’s not much else to say here. If you were lucky enough to be positioned to draft Jefferson, you’re starting him and feeling great about it.
Jordan Addison: The Vikings are currently listing Addison behind K.J. Osborn on their depth chart, but Addison will be on the field in three-receiver sets, and it’s possible he’ll play with Justin Jefferson in two-receiver sets. The Vikings’ first-round draft pick is 5-11, 173 pounds and not especially athletic, but he is a route-running savant a la Keenan Allen. With Justin Jefferson hogging targets for the Vikings, Addison will pose a difficult start/sit dilemma for many of his fantasy managers. Best to play it cautiously and view Addison as a midrange WR4 for Week 1.
K.J. Osborn: Will the arrival of Jordan Addison marginalize Osborn? Maybe not, but Addison could drain what little fantasy value Osborn has. Don’t use Osborn against the Buccaneers this week.
Tight Ends
Cade Otton: He showed signs of competence as a rookie, but Otton topped 40 receiving yards in only three of his 16 games. Pass.
T.J. Hockenson: After a midseason trade took him from Detroit to Minnesota, Hockenson averaged 8.6 targets, 6.0 catches and 51.9 receiving yards in 10 games with the Vikings. Is Hockenson still the No. 2 target in the Vikings’ passing game behind Justin Jefferson, or will Jordan Addison usurp that role and diminish Hock’s fantasy value? The guess here is that Hock remains one of the more valuable tight ends in fantasy but sees a noteworthy reduction in targets. Start him this week against a Buccaneers defense that allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to tight ends last year.
Tennessee Titans vs. New Orleans Saints
Pace and playcalling notes
- Last season, Tennessee had the seventh-slowest neutral pace while also rocking the seventh-highest neutral rushing rate. With Tim Kelly at the controls in 2023, I expect the Titans to throw more, but just how much is up for debate.
- With Andy Dalton at the helm, New Orleans operated at the ninth-slowest neutral pace while having the eighth-highest neutral rushing rate. If Derek Carr can be the upgrade that we all believe he can be, New Orleans will change both figures this season.
Quarterbacks
Ryan Tannehill: He averaged only 13.9 fantasy points per game last season, so Tannehill would seem like a low-ceiling fantasy option. But a couple of terrible games tanked his scoring average. Tannehill scored 18.8 or more fantasy points in 4-of-12 starts, so the weekly ceiling might be a bit higher than we think. That said, Tannehill isn’t an attractive Week 1 fantasy option, especially in a matchup against the Saints. The New Orleans defense ranked fifth in DVOA against the pass last year and 20th in DVOA against the run. Tannehill is worth considering only in superflex leagues this week.
Derek Carr: Making his debut as a Saint, Carr gets a juicy matchup against a flammable Titans pass defense that gave up 19.0 fantasy points per game to opposing QBs last year and ranked 28th in DVOA. Granted, Tennessee had major injury problems this year, but it’s nevertheless hard to see this as anything but a good matchup for Carr. As of now, oft-injured Saints WR Michael Thomas is healthy, so Carr will have a nice pair of pass catchers in Thomas and talented second-year man Chris Olave. Carr has sneaky appeal in redraft leagues and DFS for Week 1. Consider him a high-end QB2.
Running Backs
Derrick Henry: The king of rushing volume, Henry has led the NFL in carries in three of the last four seasons and has averaged 22.7 rushing attempts per game since 2019. He even caught a career-high 33 passes last season after never getting to 20 receptions in any of his six previous seasons. Henry has finished top five in fantasy points per game in each of the last five seasons. At age 29 and with plenty of mileage on the odometer, Henry might not have a lot of good years left. But now is not the time to fade him. Start Henry with confidence this week against a New Orleans run defense that ranked 20th in DVOA last year.
Tyjae Spears: The rookie from Tulane probably won’t have any standalone value as long as Derrick Henry is healthy, but Spears is one of the most valuable handcuffs in fantasy, and he might get some change-of-pace usage. If Spears isn’t rostered in your league, be prepared to pounce should anything happen to King Henry.
Jamaal Williams: Alvin Kamara is serving a three-game suspension. Rookie Kendre Miller is dealing with a hamstring and might not be available for the Saints’ opener. Williams could conceivably get 20-plus carries this week. The problem is that he’ll be up against a rugged Titans run defense that held opposing RBs to 62.8 rushing yards a game and 3.4 yards per carry last season. Volume generally outweighs matchup in start/sit decisions, so regard Williams as a low-end RB2 this week and lean toward using him this week.
Kendre Miller: If he’s able to play this week, Miller figures to get some carries behind Jamaal Williams while Alvin Kamara serves a three-game suspension. But a hamstring injury has Miller’s status for Week 1 uncertain, and his inability to practice on Friday puts him on the wrong side of the “questionable” designation.
Wide Receivers
DeAndre Hopkins: The 31-year-old Hopkins joins a Titans squad that desperately needed pass-catching help. Although he’s on the wrong side of the age curve, Hopkins is still a high-volume receiver. He played only nine games last year because of a six-game PED suspension at the beginning of the season and a knee sprain that cost him two games at the end, but Hopkins was the WR9 in fantasy points per game and had a hefty 29.4% target share and 43.5% air-yard share. Hopkins draws a tricky Week 1 matchup against CB Marshon Lattimore and the Saints. Treat Hopkins as a lower-end WR2 in his debut with Tennessee.
Treylon Burks: Before the Titans signed DeAndre Hopkins, Burks was ticketed to be Tennessee’s No. 1 receiver. It might be best, however, that Burks is playing with a classic No. 1 like Hop and not being shoehorned into a role that may not suit him. Hopkins’ presence allows Burks to do what he does best — operate near the line of scrimmage and run routes designed to get the ball into his hands in easy pitch-and-catch situations, setting him up to raise hell after the catch the way he did at the University of Arkansas. Still, Burks isn’t a great percentage play in fantasy this week against a Saints defense that ranked fifth in DVOA against the pass a year ago. He’s also been dealing with a knee issue, though he’s expected to play. Regard Burks as a low-end WR4.
Chris Olave: A QB upgrade from Andy Dalton to Derek Carr should suit Olave nicely, since Carr should be able to better leverage Olave’s wheels. Last season, Carr averaged 9.1 intended air yards per pass attempt last season, fourth-highest in the league. Dalton averaged 7.9 intended air yards per pass attempt last season. Olave was dynamite as a rookie, finishing with 1,042 receiving yards in 15 games and averaging 8.8 yards per target. Fire up Olave this week against a pass-funnel Titans defense that gave up the most fantasy points to opposing WRs in 2022.
Michael Thomas: Plagued by foot problems that limited him to 10 games over the last three seasons, Thomas is seemingly healthy now. The NFL’s receptions leader in 2018 and 2019 probably isn’t going to catch 100 passes this year even if he stays completely healthy — teammate Chris Olave is too good – but Thomas can be a useful fantasy asset as a complementary possession receiver. With Thomas in a home matchup against a bad Tennessee pass defense, Thomas is flex-worthy this week as a low-end WR3.
Rashid Shaheed: This former undrafted free agent from Weber State was wildly efficient in his first NFL season, averaging 14.4 yards per target and 2.59 yards per route run. Unfortunately, Shaheed isn’t likely to see a lot of targets as long as Chris Olave and Michael Thomas are both healthy. Leave Shaheed on your bench.
Tight Ends
Chig Okonkwo: The Saints were stingy to opposing TEs last year, allowing a league-low 58 catches and 509 receiving yards to the position. Okonkwo is an intriguing young player, but leave him on ice this week in a tough matchup.
Juwan Johnson: On one hand, Johnson gets a great matchup against a Titans defense that was bashed by TEs last season to the tune of 98 catches, 1,130 yards and 6 touchdowns. Only four teams allowed more fantasy points to tight ends in 2022 than the Titans did. On the other hand, Johnson’s fantasy value has been more about touchdowns than catch volume, and it’s unlikely that Johnson will ramp up the volume with Saints WR Michael Thomas healthy. Consider Johnson a midrange TE2 this week.
Taysom Hill: Is Hill TE-eligible in your league? He might not be now that the NFL lists him as a quarterback rather than as a tight end. Regardless, Hill is a boom-or-bust fantasy option who finished TE9 in PPR fantasy scoring last season. There might not be as many boom games now that the Saints have stabilized the QB position with Derek Carr, who’s likely to come off the field less often for Hill’s wildcat gadgetry than Anday Dalton did last year. Fade Hill in Week 1.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Pace and playcalling notes
- Last season, with Brock Purdy under center, the 49ers were 22nd in neutral pace with the 13th-highest neutral rushing rate.
- In Weeks 7-18 last year, the Steelers were 19th in neutral pace while leaning on the run with the eighth-highest neutral rushing rate. We’ll see if those trends hold in 2023, with Kenny Pickett looking like a different player in the preseason.
Quarterbacks
Brock Purdy: It’s hard to tell what to make of Purdy’s fantasy outlook for 2023. He was the steady hand the 49ers needed at quarterback last season after Jimmy Garoppolo and Trey Lance went down with injuries, throwing two or more TD passes in each of the Niners’ last six regular-season games. But Purdy also benefited from a pillowy-soft schedule. He didn’t face a defense that ranked better than 13th in DVOA against the pass after taking over at QB. Then he ran into a good Cowboys defense in the playoffs and had 214 passing yards and zero touchdowns. Statistically, the Pittsburgh defense was average vs. the pass last year, but it got better as the season went on, particularly after edge rusher extraordinaire T.J. Watt returned from an injury at midseason. One other concern for Purdy is that TE George Kittle, who’s exceptional as both a pass catcher and blocker, is dealing with a groin injury that has him questionable for Week 1. Fade Purdy this week in fantasy.
Kenny Pickett: Preseason results should be taken with a grain of salt, but it’s still worth noting that Pickett was razor-sharp in exhibition games last month, completing 13-of-15 passes (86.7%) for 199 yards (13.3 YPA), with two TD passes and no interceptions. Still, it’s hard to get on board with Pickett as a fantasy option this week against a rugged San Francisco defense that allowed only 13.6 fantasy points per game to opposing QBs last year. Keep the second-year signal caller on your bench this week.
Running Backs
Christian McCaffrey: The 49ers were judicious in their usage of McCaffrey after acquiring CMC from the Panthers last October. But while McCaffrey didn’t see the massive touch counts that categorized his early years in Carolina, he was still highly productive, averaging 21.7 fantasy points per game in 11 games with the Niners. McCaffrey’s run-catch versatility makes him a hand-in-glove fit for 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan’s offense, and an abundance of surrounding skill-player talent makes it hard for opposing defenses to focus on CMC. Start McCaffrey with confidence this week even in a tricky road matchup against the Steelers.
Elijah Mitchell: Will Mitchell have stand-alone fantasy value with Christian McCaffrey around? We don’t have a lot of information to go on, since injuries limited Mitchell to five games last season. McCaffrey was around for four of those games, and Mitchell averaged 9.8 carries, 59.5 rushing yards and 0.4 touchdowns per game after CMC’s arrival. Mitchell doesn’t catch many passes, and McCaffrey’s presence puts a lid on Mitchell’s rushing volume. Mitchell might be flex-worthy in deep leagues once byes and injuries start to hit fantasy managers hard. But for now, keep Mitchell on your bench.
Najee Harris: There’s been speculation that the Steelers will give more work to Jaylen Warren this week, although Najee probably isn’t in any danger of falling into a 50/50 timeshare. The bigger problem for Najee’s investors this week is a bad matchup with the 49ers. San Francisco allowed the fewest fantasy points and rushing yards to RBs last season. Running backs scored only seven touchdowns against the 49ers in 2022. You’re probably starting Najee this week, but the outlook isn’t as bright as it would be in a better matchup. He’s a midrange to low-end RB2 this week.
Jaylen Warren: Although he was far more efficient than Najee Harris last season in terms of yards per carry and yards per target, to conclude that Warren is the better back would be submitting to the fallacy of small sample sizes. Warren is talented, but it would be a leap of faith to conclude that he’s better than Najee. Still, Warren may have earned himself a bigger role this season. That role won’t be big enough to justify starting Warren this week against a lights-out 49ers run defense, but Warren is a player to watch closely early in the season.
Wide Receivers
Deebo Samuel: The arrival of Christian McCaffrey might mean that Deebo doesn’t add as much rushing value in 2023 as he has in the last couple of seasons. In the seven games he played with CMC last year, Deebo had 19 carries for 96 yards and two touchdowns. Deebo is special with the ball in his hands, so 49ers HC Kyle Shanahan is still going to scheme him some carries — just not as many carries as Deebo handled over the second half of the 2021 season, when he had 53 rushing attempts over an eight-game stretch. Perhaps the more important issue is Deebo’s receiving potential with CMC around. After McCaffrey’s arrival, Deebo averaged 6.7 targets, 4.1 receptions and 41.0 receiving yards per game. Those are low-end WR3 numbers. Treat Deebo as a midrange WR2 this week but monitor his usage carefully early in the season to assess his value.
Brandon Aiyuk: Aiyuk quietly finished WR15 in PPR fantasy scoring last year, catching 78 passes for 1,015 yards and eight touchdowns in his age-24 season. Aiyuk has averaged an impressive 8.8 yards per target over his three NFL seasons, and last year he demonstrated that he can thrive despite the abundance of skill-position talent on the San Francisco roster. Consider Aiyuk a high-end WR3 this week against the Steelers.
Diontae Johnson: Somehow, Johnson failed to score a touchdown last year despite drawing 147 targets and catching 87 passes. No other receiver in NFL history has drawn more than 109 targets in a season without scoring a touchdown. Whether Johnson will reverse his TD misfortune against the 49ers this week is unclear, but Johnson has averaged 9.6 targets, 5.9 catches and 61.8 receiving yards a game over the last three years, making him a must-start in most formats. Johnson is a low-end WR2 this week against a 49ers defense that yielded the sixth-most receiving yards to WRs last year.
George Pickens: A big-play specialist, Pickens has a remarkable flare for making acrobatic catches. What Pickens stakeholders need more of is target volume. Pickens had a 15.3% target share last year. He didn’t see more than eight targets in any game all season, and he didn’t see more than six targets in any game from Week 6 on. Pickens is the sort of receiver who could make his weekly fantasy quota with one big TD catch, but the lower target volume makes for an unstable floor. He’s a boom-or-bust WR3 this week.
Tight Ends
George Kittle: A groin injury has left Kittle’s status in question for week 1, so you’ll have to monitor his status throughout the week. Kittle has some huge games, so it would be hard to leave him on your bench if he’s active. But Kittle’s target counts can oscillate wildly, and the injury raises the risk of a dud game if he’s able to suit up. Should Kittle miss this game, no San Francisco TE would be worth your consideration.
Pat Freiermuth: After catching 60 passes for 497 yards as a rookie, Freiermuth had 63 receptions for 732 yards last year. His average depth of target went from 5.3 yards in 2021 to 8.3 yards in 2022, and his yards per target jumped from 6.3 to 7.5. Although the trends are positive, Freiermuth is no better than a low-end TE this week vs. a 49ers defense that gave up the sixth-fewest fantasy points to tight ends last season.
Arizona Cardinals vs. Washington Commanders
Pace and playcalling notes
- Eric Bieniemy is taking over playcalling duties in Washington after serving his last five seasons as OC under Andy Reid in Kansas City.
- The Chiefs used pre-snap motion at the second-highest rate in the NFL during his five seasons as OC (2018-22), and it gained 51% of its receiving yards after the catch, third-most in the league per ESPN.
- Last season alone, KC ranked 13th in neutral pace, 32nd in no huddle rate and 4th in neutral game pass rate.
- Drew Petzing is the new offensive coordinator for the Cardinals after spending last year with the Browns as the QB coach. This will be the first year he calls offensive plays.
- Fully expect Petzing’s Cardinals to play much slower than the hyper fast-paced Kliff Kingsbury offense. Their plays per game will come down, but the hope is they can be more efficient with quality over quantity in the play calling.
Quarterbacks
Sam Howell: The second-year man out of UNC impressed over the summer and preseason contests to earn the starting job in the nation’s capital. I for one, am not too surprised considering every time Howell has gotten an opportunity to play, he has performed well. During the preseason, he completed 76% of his passes for 265 yards and 3 TDs. Good for an impressive 122.0 passer rating. And during his Week 18 start last year, Howell was equally as effective. Averaged 8.8 yards per attempt with two TDs (one passing, one rushing) and 35 yards on the ground to boot. Again, his early success is not surprising to any that followed his college profile. When he had legitimate NFL talent around him at North Carolina back in 2020, he finished as the nation’s sixth highest-graded quarterback (92.3) and fourth-best deep passer (98.0). Howell’s got all the tools to be a fantasy-friendly quarterback, and there’s no better spot for him to be in than against a lowly Arizona Cardinals defense that is playing for the 2024 season. They boast PFF”s 32nd-ranked defensive line and 29th-ranked secondary. This defense is potentially WORSE than it was last season, when it was a consensus bottom-10 unit in most metrics, “highlighted” by allowing the league’s second-highest passer rating.
Joshua Dobbs: The team drafted Houston’s Clayton Tune in Round 5, as a potential stop-gap option while Kyler Murray rehabs from his torn ACL. Tune was super accurate last season, posting Sports Info Solutions’ highest on-target percentage (78%) among the 2023 QB Draft Class. He also led the class in passing yards per game (313) and touchdowns per game (3.5). Wouldn’t surprise me at all if the 6-foot-3 and 220-pound quarterback starts games in 2023 as the Cardinals look to lock up next year’s No. 1 overall pick. The team already released Colt McCoy earlier this offseason, and they acquired Joshua Dobbs on August 24. Dobbs started two games for the Titans last season, finishing 0-2 with the league’s 8th-worst passer rating. Jonathan Gannon had originally remained hush-hush on who would start at QB, maintaining his stance on “competitive advantage.” But Arizona finally announced it would be Dobbs drawing the start, after spending time with Petzing in Cleveland. But Dobbs starting probably won’t matter versus PFF’s 3rd-ranked defensive line with a secondary that looks improved from last year. Don’t overthink the 7-point home favorite Commanders (as the highest projected scoring DST in Week 1), believing the Cardinals can make this a legitimate back-and-forth contest.
Running Backs
Brian Robinson Jr.: I haven’t been high on Brian Robinson during the fantasy football draft process, with his profile as an early-down grinder on a team that will likely be trailing in contests. But Week 1’s matchup versus the bottom-dwelling Cardinals is the exact matchup where Robinson can thrive for the Commanders run game. They are favorites at home, so I expect Robinson to see a healthy amount of rushing volume even while splitting snaps with Antonio Gibson. From Week 6 onward last season, B-Rob averaged 9.4 fantasy points per game (RB34). But the points per game hardly depict Robinson’s rookie campaign because he was getting pumped with volume. He ranked fourth in carries (17.8 per game) and averaged over 70 rushing yards per game as PFF’s ninth-highest-graded running back (82.1). Start him versus the Cardinals in one of the few plus-matchups he will get all season.
Antonio Gibson: As the Commanders’ No. 1 pass-catching back, AG has more appeal in PPR formats. But in a contest that projects for Washington to be playing with a lead, this isn’t the spot to thrust him into your starting lineups. It’s a Brian Robinson week, not a Gibson week.
James Conner: Volume. Volume. Volume. That’s the thesis on drafting James Conner, and starting him every single week, regardless of matchup. Because the matchup versus the Commanders’ fierce defensive line is horrible. But as we have seen time and time again, volume is king in fantasy football. And I fully expect a Week 1 Conner – by far at the healthiest he will ever be during the season – to be the engine of this unaspiring Arizona offensive attack. Keep in mind that Conner was a BEAST last year even without Kyler Murray. Conner averaged 21 points per game in six games played without Murray last season. RB2. Lock.
Wide Receivers
Terry McLaurin: Terry McLaurin is currently dealing with a turf toe injury that he suffered in the team’s final preseason game. Listed as day-to-day, he will suit up Week 1 but will be less than 100%. The matchup is too good versus the Cardinals to pass. View him as a fantasy WR3 for Week 1. Not an auto-start.
Jahan Dotson: With a potentially limited McLaurin the target floodgates will open for Jahan Dotson to absolutely feast versus an extremely suspect defense. Dotson had more WR1 finishes than Terry McLaurin in 2022, who played in 5 more games than Dotson. Factor in Dotson’s strong finish after his injury from Weeks 13-18, and he’s a no-brainer breakout candidate for Week 1. Over that span, he led the Commanders with a 24% target share averaging 2.2 yards per route run (tied with McLaurin). And during the preseason, it was clear he was Sam Howell‘s favorite target. He played 100% of the snaps with Howell during the NFL preseason. And after McLaurin got hurt, Dotson caught 5-of-7 targets for 76 yards. The former Penn State star recorded all 76 of his yards in the second quarter (28% target share).
Curtis Samuel: Samuel is a super-talented slot WR that fits the new scheme very well. He can make plays after the catch, and I fully expect him to see a decent chunk of volume/targets in Week 1, especially if McLaurin is limited. If you are in a pinch for a FLEX or WR3, add Samuel off waivers and plug him into your lineup. He likely won’t give you a massive ceiling outcome, but he can give you a handful of points if you don’t have any alternatives. Keep in mind that last season, Samuel was second on the team in catches, third in overall touches and first in catch rate (70%). He’s the perfect safety option for his quarterback making his second regular-season start.
Marquise Brown: I think it’s smart to avoid starting WRs when we don’t know who their starting QBs will be. Especially when it’s a combination of a Day 3 rookie and journeyman veteran with zero track record of any success at the NFL level. Case in point, Marquise Brown should be on ALL benches in Week 1 versus an underrated Commanders secondary. Hollywood Brown played five games without Kyler Murray (three which overlapped with DeAndre Hopkins also playing), Brown was down to just 5.4 points and 35 receiving yards per game. He also posted similar production in the final two games of the season with both Hopkins/Murray sidelined.
Michael Wilson: Similar to Brown, you can’t start Michael Wilson. Even if the rookie is running all the routes as a full-time starter, the play is just too fringe with the major question marks at quarterback.
Tight Ends
Logan Thomas: Logan Thomas has missed a lot of time this preseason period dealing with a nagging calf injury, but he is believed to be back to full health in preparation of Week 1. We know that he will have a featured role on the offense given Bieniemy’s experience with tight ends in his days spent in Kansas City. If healthy, LT could surprise in a big way as soon as Week 1. Recall that he finished 4th at the position in 2020 and was 10th in points per game in 2021. And the matchup versus a Jonathan Gannon-led defense could prove very favorable. Gannon’s defense was very strong in Philadelphia over the last two years, but linebacker depth was always a serious question mark. Kyzir White came over from the Eagles this offseason, but the team traded Isaiah Simmons for a seventh-round pick. White is not a difference maker in coverage which lends itself to Thomas finding production in Week 1. Gannon’s Eagles in 2021 were the second-worst team versus tight ends in fantasy points allowed.
Trey McBride: Should Zach Ertz not be available, that would tee up McBride to be the Cardinals’ clear-cut TE1 for Week 1. McBride was the TE11 from Weeks 14-18 as his role expanded due to injuries on the Cardinals roster. His major highlight came against the Falcons in Week 17, where he caught 7 balls for 78 yards and 1 TD on ten targets with Marquise Brown active in the lineup. That earned him a top-3 weekly fantasy finish, making him one of just 23 unique tight ends to do so. His decorated college profile – 1,125 receiving yards and 30% target rate per route run in 2021 – suggests he can post points with a starting role. It’s not crazy to think he could be the No. 2 pass-catcher on this offense in 2023. But let’s see how things shake out first in Week 1 with a total unknown at quarterback.
Zach Ertz: Remains to be seen whether Ertz will be available in Week 1 coming off a major knee injury suffered during the half-point of the 2022 season. He’s not on the PUP, but Ertz has remained non-committal on his Week 1 status. Regardless, he will be 33 in November. That combined with his return from a knee injury is a recipe for disaster.