The NFL is back! So is The Primer, and we at FantasyPros are excited to have the privilege of delivering it to you for another season.
As always, the goal of The Primer is to provide actionable fantasy advice on every relevant player. Every week, we open up the spigot and release a torrent of stats, player news, start/sit opinions and DFS advice. It’s a lot, and you might not be able to lap it all up every week, but if you’re thirsty for fantasy information, this is the place to slake your thirst.
It’s impossible to offer an overview of The Primer without mentioning its first author, the late great Mike Tagliere.
Tags loved digging into the data every week. He loved finding nuggets of info that he thought readers might find useful. He loved writing thousands upon thousands of words about fantasy football and the NFL every week, even if it cost him sleep. And he was great at it, too. It was impossible to read The Primer without hearing Tags’ voice in your head. All that was missing was Tags’ signature salutation, “What’s up, guys?”
The Primer will always be Tags’ baby. The rest of us are just taking care of it and raising it the best we can.
Most weeks, Derek Brown will be writing The Primer. DBro spent the entire 2022 season writing it, and he is without a doubt the right man for the job. Like Tags, DBro is a walking encyclopedia of fantasy football data. And as with Tags, to read DBro’s work is to hear his voice in your head.
DBro was slightly under the weather this week, so the season debut of The Primer is a collaborative effort that involved DBro, Andrew Erickson, Mike Maher and yours truly. We hope you enjoy it and find it helpful.
Thanks for reading, friends. Here’s to a great NFL season.
– Pat Fitzmaurice
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Fantasy Football Primer
Carolina Panthers vs. Atlanta Falcons
Pace and playcalling notes
- In the last full season sample with Frank Reich as a head coach, his offense was 31st in neutral pace and 12th in neutral rushing rate. While yes, that was with Carson Wentz at quarterback, we could see him operate in the same fashion to protect his rookie quarterback, especially early on.
- Arthur Smith has been a slow-paced run-game zealot. Last year, with Desmond Ridder under center, it was no different. The Falcons were 24th in neutral pace with the seventh-highest neutral rushing rate.
Quarterbacks
Bryce Young: Despite being the No. 1 overall pick in this year’s NFL Draft, Young has largely been an afterthought in the fantasy football world other than in dynasty rookie drafts. It might have been different if Young had looked splendid during the preseason, but that wasn’t the case. He completed 14-of-24 passes (58.3%) for 129 yards (5.4 YPA), with one touchdown and no interceptions. Young draws a somewhat favorable matchup against an Atlanta pass defense that ranked 31st in DVOA last season and gave up the 12th-most fantasy points to opposing QBs, but the rookie is not an appealing 1QB option in a matchup with a Vegas total of only 39.5 points. Young is playable in superflex, however, even though the Carolina pass catchers don’t exactly quicken the pulses of fantasy managers.
Desmond Ridder: Find yourself someone who loves you as much as Falcons head coach Arthur Smith loves the running game. Smith’s devotion to the smashmouth life doesn’t exactly go hand-in-hand with QB fantasy value, so Ridder is a clear fade for Week 1 even in an above-average matchup against a Panthers defense that may be without disgruntled edge rusher Brian Burns. Ridder made four late-season starts as a rookie and posted a double-digit fantasy point total in only one of them. Ridder averaged 177 passing yards in those four starts and threw two TD passes. Ridder has intriguing rushing potential, but he ran only 16 times for 64 yards in 2022. Even in superflex leagues, Ridder is not an appealing Week 1 option.
Running Backs
Miles Sanders: Sanders missed time in training camp with a groin injury and didn’t play in the preseason, but he returned to practice two weeks ago and is expected to be fine for Week 1. It’s hard to tell whether we’ll see bell-cow usage with Sanders this season. If we do, it might not come so soon after a soft-tissue injury. But this is nonetheless a pretty decent spot for Sanders. The Falcons gave up the eighth-most rushing yards to RBs last season and ranked 27th in DVOA vs. the run. Panthers head coach Frank Reich probably doesn’t want his offense to be extremely pass-heavy in rookie QB Bryce Young‘s first regular-season game, so we can expect an earnest effort to maintain offensive balance. Sanders is best viewed as a midrange RB2 this week.
Chuba Hubbard: It’s possible Hubbard gets a significant number of snaps this week if the Panthers decide to keep Miles Sanders‘ role limited following his return from a groin injury. It’s also possible Hubbard will have some standalone value if this is more of a split backfield than most fantasy managers are suspecting. But for Week 1, Hubbard is little more than a contrarian play for DFS tournaments.
Bijan Robinson: Finally, the debut that so many of us have been waiting for. It will be fun to see what the best RB prospect to enter the league since Saquon Barkley can do in a run-heavy offense, operating behind one of the NFL’s better run-blocking offensive lines. It’s possible Falcons head coach Arthur Smith uses Bijan and Tyler Allgeier in something close to a 50/50 split in Week 1, eventually shifting more of the workload toward Bijan. But it’s also possible that Bijan handles a big load right away. He’s a multitalented back with run-catch versatility, so it’s possible we’ll see Bijan used as a weapon in the passing game. Bijan will face a middling Carolina run defense. But matchup be damned – you didn’t spend an early-round draft pick on Bijan just to leave him on your bench. Let’s ride!
Tyler Allgeier: As run-heavy as the Falcons can be under head coach Arthur Smith, it’s possible that Allgeier could have standalone value even with rookie Bijan Robinson taking over as Atlanta’s lead back. Allgeier, a surprise 1,000-yard rusher last season as a rookie, could get 10-15 carries against the Panthers if the game script cooperates. But he could also yield to Bijan and get 4-6 carries. He’s off the radar for fantasy this week in all but the largest of leagues.
Wide Receivers
Adam Thielen: Yes, Thielen turned 33 last month, and his efficiency numbers have been trending in the wrong direction for years. But is it crazy to think that a rookie quarterback making his NFL debut might lean heavily on a veteran receiver known for his precise route running and red-zone prowess? The problem is that Thielen is dealing with an ankle injury that had him limited in practice this week. If he’s able to go on Sunday, Thielen could be a sneaky flex play against a Falcons defense that ranked 31st in DVOA vs. the pass a year ago.
D.J. Chark: A hamstring injury has Chark questionable for Week 1. Even with a clean bill of health, Chark is a WR4 at best. Don’t use him when he’s less than 100% and paired with a rookie QB making his first NFL start. Editor’s Note: Chark has been ruled OUT for Week 1.
Jonathan Mingo: A second-round rookie with good size (6-1, 226) and speed (4.46), Mingo is an intriguing sleeper for 2023. It’s encouraging that Mingo ran a route on 29 of Bryce Young’s 31 preseason dropbacks. That sort of involvement bodes well for Mingo’s Year 1 production. With Adam Thielen dealing with an ankle injury and D.J. Chark out, Mingo could be a flex option in deeper leagues this week as a low-end WR4.
Drake London: As a 21-year-old rookie, London had a 29.4% target share and was targeted on 32.4% of his pass routes. He averaged 2.07 yards per route run. It’s possible the kid was just revving his engine and is really going to stomp the gas pedal in Year 2. Sure, London’s target share spiked after Kyle Pitts got hurt last year. And, yes, the Falcons will be run-heavy. But, hey, there’s really no one other than London, Pitts and possibly Bijan Robinson who’s going to see a lot of targets in this offense. London is a weekly must-start in fantasy. That said, London’s matchup against Carolina might mean a lot of face time with Panthers CB Jaycee Horn, a talented young cover man with the size (6-1, 205) to avoid being bullied by the 6-4, 213-pound London. Tread lightly with London in DFS (but don’t rule him out of your lineups completely).
Mack Hollins: There’s only one fantasy-viable receiver in Atlanta. Sorry, Mack.
Tight Ends
Hayden Hurst: Hurst has noted that tight ends are often a quarterback’s best friend, and he has volunteered to get chummy with rookie QB Bryce Young. Hurst faces a Falcons defense that gave up the third-most fantasy points to tight ends last year, so this is a good spot for the veteran tight end. He won’t get a lot of love from fantasy managers, but Hurst is a viable option this week and an interesting contrarian choice in DFS tourneys.
Kyle Pitts: After a disappointing, injury-marred 2022 campaign, will Pitts live up to his vast fantasy potential in 2023? Two seasons ago, Pitts became the first rookie tight end to record a 1,000-yard season since Mike Ditka did it 60 years earlier. Pitts had only 28-356-2 in 10 games last year before a torn MCL ended his season. While he was healthy, he was plagued by an extraordinarily high percentage of uncatchable throws from Marcus Mariota. Pitts is a midrange TE1 with the potential to ascend to the top of the position. Don’t leave him out of your lineup.
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Cleveland Browns
Pace and playcalling notes
- Zach Taylor finally bought into the passing attack, confidently leading the way in 2022 as the Bengals were second in neutral passing rate. The disappointing finding is that they were 16th in neutral passing rate.
- With Deshaun Watson under center last season, the Browns were 17th in neutral pace and ninth in neutral rushing rate. They did manage to rank seventh in no-huddle rate. The team has vowed to be more pass-heavy, but we’re in wait-and-see mode.
Quarterbacks
Joe Burrow: Typically, there isn’t much to think about when Joe Burrow is quarterbacking your fantasy team. You simply throw him into your starting lineup and feel good about having him there. Burrow isn’t quite a no-brainer play this week, considering that he’s coming back from a calf injury that forced him to miss nearly all of training camp and also has a tricky Week 1 matchup against the Browns in Cleveland. The calf injury will probably keep Burrow from doing much running. As one of the best pure passers in the league, Burrow is capable of doing major damage with his arm, but the Cleveland pass defense is formidable. The Browns’ pass defense ranked 12th in DVOA last season and allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing QBs. In his two games against the Browns last season, Burrow averaged 235.5 passing yards, throwing for under 240 yards in both games, and had four TD passes and two interceptions. You’re almost certainly going to start Burrow this week unless you’re in a six-team fantasy league, but this doesn’t set up as a smash game for Cincinnati’s swaggy QB.
Deshaun Watson: When the curtain lifts on the 2023 season, will we see the Deshaun Watson who was a top-five fantasy QB in each of his three full seasons as a starter with the Texans, or the Deshaun Watson who was thoroughly unimpressive in six late-season starts for the Browns last year? Logic suggests that we should lean toward the larger sample size as the better predictor of future performance, but it would be hard to fault anyone who insisted on getting a “show me” game from Watson before plugging him into a lineup or using him in DFS. Watson will face a Bengals pass defense that had the third-best opponent passer rating and allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks last season. Consider Watson a high-end QB2 this week.
Running Backs
Joe Mixon: This game sets up extremely well for Mixon. Bengals QB Joe Burrow is coming back from a calf injury, so you have to figure that the Bengals will make an earnest effort to run the ball to keep the Cleveland pass rush honest. The Bengals will also be facing a Browns defense that was much better against the pass than it was against the run last season. Cleveland’s defense ranked 12th in DVOA against the pass, 26th against the run. The Browns gave up 1,994 rushing yards to opposing RBs last season, the fifth-highest total in the league. They allowed 17 TD runs to RBs, third-most in the league. Mixon had a disappointing 8-27-0 rushing performance when the Browns blew out the Bengals on Halloween night last year, 32-13, although Mixon did have seven catches for 32 yards in that game. In a Week 14 rematch, Mixon had 14-96-0 and 2-10-0 receiving as the Bengals cruised to a 23-10 win. Expect Mixon to get a more substantial carry total against Cleveland this time around. For fantasy purposes, view him as a midrange to low-end RB1.
Nick Chubb: The Bengals had an above-average run defense last year, but Chubb is nearly matchup-proof. In his first meeting with Cincinnati last season, Chubb trampled the Bengals to the tune of 23-101-2 on the ground. He wasn’t as effective in the Week 14 rematch, finishing with 14-34-0 on the ground, his second-lowest rushing output on the year. But of course you’re throwing Chubb into your lineup this week and feeling darned good about it.
Wide Receivers
Ja’Marr Chase: An elite WR option, Chase is a must-start in all managed fantasy leagues and an appealing option in DFS. The Cleveland pass defense was solid last season, but in the one game against the Browns he was healthy for last year, Chase caught 10-of-15 targets for 119 yards and a touchdown. The Browns will probably try to get high-quality CB Denzel Ward as often as they can if Ward is able to play, but he’s recovering from a concussion, leaving his status uncertain. Regardless of whether Ward plays, start Chase with confidence.
Tee Higgins: The Robin to Ja’Marr Chase‘s Batman, Higgins has topped the 1,000-yard mark in each of his last two seasons even though he was limited to 14 games in 2021 and had to leave two games early last season — including a game against the Browns in which he was injured on his first offensive snap. Higgins will look for a better result against the Browns this time around. Consider him a high-end WR2 this week.
Tyler Boyd: A high-quality slot receiver, Boyd has averaged 74 catches and 901 receiving yards over his last five seasons. The numbers have been trending slightly downward in recent years, due largely to the presence of teammates Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, exceptional talents who command a lot of targets. The problem with Boyd for fantasy is that it’s hard to know when to use him. He’s had some big games even when both Chase and Higgins have been healthy, but there are also games where Boyd is the forgotten man in the Cincinnati offense. Since it’s Week 1 and fantasy managers aren’t dealing with byes or a large number of injuries left, Boyd will most likely be left on benches in Week 1.
Amari Cooper: Cooper has volatile home/road splits for his career. He’s scored 34 career touchdowns at home, 21 on the road. Cooper has 31.4% more receiving yards at home than on the road. He has averaged 9.9 yards per target in 61 career home games, 7.5 yards per target in 64 career road games. The good news: Cooper opens the season in front of the faithful at Cleveland Browns Stadium. When Cooper faced the Bengals at home last season on Halloween night, he had five catches for 131 yards and a touchdown. Play him with confidence.
Elijah Moore: It will be interesting to see what sort of chemistry Moore has with Bengals QB Deshaun Watson. Moore couldn’t get on the same page with Zach Wilson last year and more or less sulked his way into a trade to Cleveland. As a rookie in 2021, Moore had a six-game stretch where he had 34 catches for 459 yards and 5 touchdowns. Moore has the talent to become a valuable fantasy contributor, but it’s easy to understand why his investors would want to see positive signs before plugging him into their starting lineups. Consider Moore a midrange WR with a wide range of outcomes.
Donovan Peoples-Jones: DPJ had a career-best 61 catches for 839 yards and three touchdowns last season, but he wasn’t an impactful fantasy asset. It’s hard to see People-Jones becoming impactful now that the Browns have added Elijah Moore. For now, DPJ is merely a depth piece for fantasy managers.
Tight Ends
Irv Smith Jr.: Three years into Irv Smith Jr.‘s career, we have no real idea of how good he can be. The former second-round draft pick has lost 13 games to injury over the last two years. But Smith just turned 25 and is in a great situation as the starting tight end in an offense triggered by QB Joe Burrow. It might be best to wait at least a week before plugging Smith into your lineup, however, as he opens the season against a Browns defense that allowed the seventh-fewest fantasy points to tight ends in 2022.
David Njoku: Njoku had 58-628-4 receiving last year in only 14 games, and this weekend he’ll face a Bengals defense that lost both of its starting safeties from last year, Jessie Bates and Vonn Bell. Njoku profiles as a midrange to low-end tight end for Week 1 and probably belongs in your lineup.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts
Pace and playcalling notes
- After starting Weeks 1-11, ranking 18th in neutral passing rate, the Jaguars closed the season, ranking seventh in neutral passing rate across their final seven games.
- Shane Steichen’s offense in Philly was seventh in neutral pace with the 11th-highest neutral rushing rate. I expect the Colts to operate similarly. Move quickly and lean on the run.
Quarterbacks
Trevor Lawrence: The arrow continues to point up for Lawrence, one of the best young quarterbacks in the game. After a nightmarish rookie season during Urban Meyer’s turbulent reign as the Jaguars’ head coach, Lawrence flourished last season under new head coach Doug Pederson, throwing for 4,113 yards and 25 touchdowns. And finishing seventh in the MVP balloting. T-Law has a shiny new toy to play with: WR Calvin Ridley, whose route-running ability drew oohs and ahs from onlookers throughout training camp. Lawrence averaged 17.9 fantasy points per game last season, and as he continues to improve, there’s no reason he can’t hit 20 points per game in his third year as a starter. Play him with confidence against the Colts.
Anthony Richardson: The fourth overall pick in this year’s NFL Draft, Richardson is being handed the keys to the Colts’ offense without a watch-and-learn period. The rookie has a big-time arm, but Richardson was only a starter for one season at the University of Florida, so it might take time for him to become even an adequate NFL passer. Richardson’s rushing is another story, however. That figures to be where Richardson derives much of his fantasy value early in his pro career. The 6-4, 244-pound Richardson has 4.43 speed and ran for nine TDs in his final college season with the Gators. Shane Steichen, the Colts’ new head coach, was the Eagles offensive coordinator for the past two years and helped develop QB Jalen Hurts. In Hurts’ first season as a starter in 2021, Steichen went extremely run-heavy. From Week 6 on, that Eagles team ran the ball on 56% of its offensive snaps. Hurts averaged a modest 209.6 passing yards per game that year and threw 16 TD passes in 15 starts, but he also averaged 52.3 rushing yards per game and ran for 10 touchdowns. I think we could see something similar with Richardson this year. There’s a wide range of possible outcomes for Richardson in Week 1, and his Week 1 output will probably depend heavily on his rushing totals. Play it conservatively and regard Richardson as a midrange QB2 for Week 1.
Running Backs
Travis Etienne: For a guy coming off a debut NFL season in which he ran for 1,125 yards, Etienne seems to be causing a lot of anxiety for his investors. As good as Etienne was last season, the Jaguars still spent a third-round draft pick on Tank Bigsby, who played well in the preseason. It’s possible that Bigsby could steal some goal-line work from Etienne, and the Jaguars have already shown an inclination to use JaMycal Hasty on some obvious passing downs. Etienne will no doubt get his fair share of touches, but we want him to get plenty of high-value touches — i.e., goal-line carries and receptions. You’re confidently starting Etienne against a Colts defense that gave up the ninth-most fantasy points to RBs a year ago, but you’re crossing your fingers that Etienne’s usage justifies the early draft pick you spent on him.
Tank Bigsby: As noted above, Bigsby enjoyed a strong preseason, rushing 28 times for 159 yards. The 6-0, 213-pound Bigsby could earn goal-line touches and change-of-pace carries, but until we know more about his role, it’s probably best to leave him out of lineups.
Deon Jackson: With Jonathan Taylor on the PUP list and Zack Moss out for Week 1, Jackson has a decent chance to see double-digit touches in Week 1. In two NFL seasons, Jackson has just 81-267-2 rushing and 30-209-1 receiving. The Duke product never had a 1,000-yard rushing season in college, so there’s probably not star potential here. But RB value is often more about opportunity than talent, and Jackson has a good chance to see 12-15 touches in Week 1. Consider Jackson a midrange RB4 with upside.
Zack Moss: Moss has been ruled out for Week 1 as he continues to recover from a broken arm.
Evan Hull: The rookie from Northwestern was a prolific pass catcher in college. However, mobile quarterbacks tend not to check down to their running backs as often as pocket passers, and Colts QB Anthony Richardson is extremely mobile. But Hull is a capable runner, too, and if Colts head coach elects to be run-heavy to make life easier for Richardson — as Steichen did two years ago when he was the Eagles’ offensive coordinator in Jalen Hurts‘ first year as a starter — Hull could get a significant number of early-season carries in what figures to be an RB-by-committee. Still, it’s probably best to keep Hull on your bench this week.
Wide Receivers
Calvin Ridley: The last time Ridley played an NFL game was Oct. 24, 2021. He stepped away from football in the fall of 2021 citing mental health issues, and he was suspended for the 2022 season for gambling. Ridley reportedly had a terrific training camp, and it will be fascinating to see how he and talented young QB Trevor Lawrence work together. It might take time for them to build chemistry, but you’re not waiting to put Ridley into your starting lineup. regard him as a high-end WR2 for Week 1.
Christian Kirk: What’s slightly concerning if you’re a Kirk stakeholder is that he wasn’t always on the field in two-WR sets when the Jaguars’ starters played in the preseason. And obviously, Kirk’s target total was already at risk of being reduced thanks to the arrival of stud WR Calvin Ridley. Kirk is too good to be completely marginalized, but he might be hard-pressed to repeat last year’s 84-1,108-8 stat line. As a midrange WR3 type, Kirk will be a tough start-sit call for a lot of people this week.
Zay Jones: Jones was a pleasant surprise last season, finishing with career-best 82-823-5 receiving numbers. Calvin Ridley is sure to cut into Jones’ target totals, but Jones will still be a fixture in three-receiver sets. He even played with Ridley in two-receiver sets during the preseason. The trouble is, with Ridley, Jones, Christian Kirk and TE Evan Engram all sharing targets, Jones’ week-to-week productivity could be wildly unpredictable, and the lows could be unpalatable. He’s a low-end WR4 for Week 1.
Michael Pittman: Pittman is a talented young receiver, but he was stuck in a bad situation last year with a dusty Matt Ryan playing quarterback for most of the season, and Pittman’s situation might not be that much better this year with rookie QB Anthony Richardson facing NFL defenses for the first time. Pittman is a good bet to lead the Colts in targets for a third consecutive season, but that might not translate into worthwhile fantasy production. Treat Pittman like a midrange WR4.
Alec Pierce: A vertical receiver like Pierce should mesh well with a rocket-armed quarterback like Anthony Richardson. But while Richardson gets accustomed to facing NFL defenses, connections between Richardson and Pierce could be more infrequent than we’d like. Keep Pierce on ice until we see him establish chemistry with the rookie QB.
Tight Ends
Evan Engram: After establishing new career highs in catches (73) and receiving yards (766) last season, Engram was franchise-tagged by the Jaguars, but the team then worked out a three-year deal with the six-year veteran, who just turned 29. Engram showed how good he can be last year, but it might be hard for him to replicate his 2023 numbers now that the Jaguars have added WR Calvin Ridley, a potential target hog. Engram should be regarded as a lower-end TE1.
Kylen Granson: With Jelani Woods on IR, none of the Colts’ tight ends are worthwhile fantasy options. Leave Granson on the waiver wire.
