Risky Fantasy Football Draft Picks: Breece Hall, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Dalvin Cook, Kenneth Walker

There’s a fine line between taking risks for big upside and mitigating risks that could destroy your fantasy roster. In this article, I’ll run through several of the riskiest players to draft in 2023.

These are players who are at risk of underperforming at their average draft position (ADP).

Snake Draft Pick Strategy: Early | Middle | Late
Draft Targets for Every Round: Early | Middle | Late
Fitz’s Draft Primers: QB | RB | WR | TE
2023 Fantasy Football Draft Kit

Five of the Riskiest Players to Draft (2023 Fantasy Football)

Kenneth Walker (RB – SEA)

At this point, drafting Kenneth Walker at his current ADP RB17 feels like a terrifying gamble. There’s such a wide range of potential outcomes, and we have no true indication of how Pete Carroll wants to utilize his backfield. It’s very possible Walker retains the bulk of work out of the backfield, and his role is secure. It’s also possible that Zach Charbonnet eats into Walker’s workload with such a well-rounded skillset.

Charbonnet has a better receiving profile than Walker, and he’s thrived as a true three-down back. I’m not opposed to a committee back if I know the exact split and if there’s legitimate upside at the right ADP. I feel very comfortable drafting a player like Aaron Jones, who is in a known committee but with a very defined role. We know his floor and upside and draft him at an appropriate ADP. With Walker, we simply don’t get that luxury, making Walker a risky player to draft.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR – SEA)

Jaxon Smith-Njigba was already in a rough spot being drafted to a team with two receivers who have finished as top-20 receivers for the past three seasons. Now he has a broken wrist, and it’s unlikely he’ll be available in Week 1. The initial timeline is three to four weeks, but fantasy managers have been burned on injury timelines from Pete Carroll in the past.

It’s tough to envision a scenario where the Seahawks push JSN through a hasty recovery. JSN is a first-round investment on a team that knows it can make the playoffs with its current active roster. The Seahawks will likely take all the necessary precautions with JSN, and even when he returns, he’s still got an uphill battle with target consistency.

JSN’s ADP could drop, but with rookie excitement, it’s unlikely to take a significant dip. You’re passing on other healthy rookies and intriguing sleeper options for a risky situation.

Breece Hall (RB – NYJ) & Dalvin Cook (RB – NYJ)

Cook has finally landed in New York, and while the addition did knock Hall’s ADP down a few spots, Hall is still one of the riskiest players to draft in 2023.

The risk with Hall is two-fold. Players coming off ACL injuries are inherently risky. And despite coming off the physically unable to perform list (PUP), Hall still faces continued recovery. It’s still unclear if Hall will be ready in Week 1, and there’s no definitive information on workload ramp-up once he’s available to play. Unlike Javonte Williams, Hall has not seen live game action in the preseason.

Cook also poses a threat to Hall’s workload. The Jets didn’t pay Cook to be a backup, and even when Hall is fully healthy, the backfield will likely operate as a committee.

The Jets offense, with Aaron Rodgers at the helm and Nathaniel Hackett calling the plays, could resemble Green Bay’s offense. Green Bay has a very established committee. Aaron Jones and AJ Dillion share the workload on the ground, with goal line opportunities leading toward Dillion and receiving opportunities leaning toward Jones. It’s been an effective strategy that results in Jones performing as a low-end RB1 and Dillon as a low-end RB2.

Cook would be the Dillion, and Hall would be the Jones in this scenario. This does mean that Hall still has strong RB1 upside if health weren’t an issue. But if we don’t see Hall at full capacity until mid-season, by the time he’s in peak form, you could be fighting for your playoff life.

For Cook, he’s being drafted at his ceiling. He may overperform early on when Hall is being eased into action. But further down the line, when you need him, he could be a big liability.