Welcome to Week 3 and another 12-game DFS slate to dive into. Last week, this article identified the QB6 (Jared Goff), the RB8 (Rachaad White) and the WR5 (Nico Collins) for the slate.
This series aims to decipher players who can outperform their salaries and help push rosters. It is not meant to be a roster builder. Instead, it will help identify some players priced below their production potential based on various factors for both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Let’s get into it.
NFL Week 2 DFS Value Plays
Quarterbacks
Tua Tagovailoa was the overall QB1 in Week 1 of the NFL season, throwing for 446 yards and three touchdowns. Ryan Tannehill rose from the ashes of a Week 1 outing that saw him throw interceptions like candy from a float. Still, he finished as the overall QB15 in Week 2. The thing these two share? The opponent. The Chargers have been nothing short of generous to opposing quarterbacks to start this season and sit on an 0-2 record because of it.
Kirk Cousins has been good thus far, sitting on top of quarterback hill as the overall leader in points for the position. He currently has the second-most passing yards (708), tied for the most touchdown passes (six) and has only thrown one interception thus far. To further enhance his appeal, the Chargers can and will score on anyone, forcing Cousins to pass.
To keep it simple, Cousins is playing well, the Chargers’ defense is not, but their offense can be lethal. This game has shootout potential, and pieces of it should be sprinkled throughout DFS lineups in both cash and GPP contests.
Deshaun Watson has not looked good to start his first full season as a Brown. Whether he is still knocking off some rust or simply struggling with Kevin Stefanski’s offense, it has not been at all similar to the quarterback we watched in Houston. However, the floor provided by his legs and an apparent rapport with Amari Cooper have kept his fantasy points per game respectable enough to be in consideration.
The Titans’ secondary is porous, allowing the third-most fantasy points to wide receivers while allowing the second-fewest fantasy points against the run. The devastating loss of Nick Chubb for the season puts second-year pro Jerome Ford in a tough matchup. Expect the Browns to dial up a few more scripted pass plays in this game and get their weapons some targets.
Due to the risky nature of this pick, treat Watson as a multi-lineup option for tournaments that can be stacked with Amari Cooper ($6,200) without causing too much strain on the salary cap.
Running Backs
To address the obvious, yes, this is a risky selection and should probably be utilized for GPPs or multi-entry tournaments. The fact is, we have yet to see Kendre Miller operate in this offense. The theory of rational coaching suggests that the Saints could get cute and trot Tony Jones Jr. out there for a heap of short-yardage touches or shovel more Taysom Hill in clearly obvious quarterback keeps. Both things are certainly possible, if not probable.
However, Miller was nearly healthy enough to debut last week. Had the crystal ball revealed that Jamaal Williams would succumb to a hamstring strain, they might have rethought that stance. With Williams already ruled out, they’ve ramped Miller to a full participant in practice.
The Packers allowed 172 rushing yards to the Falcons last week. No one is claiming that Miller is Bijan Robinson, but if he sees meaningful touches, he could succeed in a game featuring some back-and-forth scoring.
Per Billy Napier, “Scared money don’t make money.” Miller is a high-risk, potentially high-reward move that is suited to multi-lineup players and in a matchup that could suit him in his pro debut. With Williams ruled out, Miller has an opportunity to show what he is capable of in a plus matchup.
Mostert is averaging the fifth-most fantasy points per game (18.6) at the running back position on this slate. His $6,600 is the 12th-most among the position. Over the first two weeks, Mostert has seen 10 or more carries in both of them, easily the largest rush share for the Dolphins. He has also scored three times during that span. Mostert has had three rush attempts inside the 10-yard line, resulting in two of his scores. That role firmly belongs to Mostert.
Meanwhile, the Broncos allowed 96 rushing yards, 86 receiving yards, two rushing touchdowns and a two-point conversion to the Commanders backfield last week. In a beatable matchup and with a secure and productive role thus far, Mostert feels like a safe value investment for a moderate cost. He can be used in both cash and GPP contests.
Wide Receivers
Relying on Lamar Jackson for consistent volume when the name does not rhyme with Snark Pandrews is often risky business. However, Zay Flowers has seen 15 targets over his first two starts and put up an impressive 15.5 yards-per-reception average last week. Lamar Jackson attempted 33 passes in that game, a mark he’s only hit nine times over the last three seasons. Flowers has hit over 10 PPR points in both of his first two pro games. Under new O.C. Todd Monken and with a less explosive run game, Jackson may be called upon to pass more frequently.
The game script for this matchup could favor garbage-time rush attempts to close the game out. With Odell Beckham Jr. already declared out, the target tree is far narrower, leaving the door open for Flowers to bloom over the first half. Flowers is a strong GPP play on this slate with a stack-friendly salary and less competition for targets.
Back to this juicy matchup and pieces of what should be a large fantasy points pie. This game has the highest O/U (53.5) in this slate of games. Both offenses favor passing, while both defenses struggle to defend against it. The Chargers allow the most fantasy points to the position through the first two weeks.
Addison has seen 11 targets for 133 receiving yards in his first two professional games and scored in both games. Expect stud receiver Justin Jefferson to garner the most defensive coverage, allowing Addison to wiggle free a few times. Touchdowns can be difficult to predict, but this matchup favors Addison to find his way into the endzone again. Addison is an excellent play at $2,900 cheaper than Jefferson and at a lower ownership percentage.
Tight Ends
By the numbers, Hunter Henry is the TE2 on this slate regarding fantasy points per game. He is TE7 by salary. So, we are already wading in the value pond. The Jets are allowing the seventh-moth fantasy points to the position despite giving up lackluster yards. Last week, they allowed Jake Ferguson and Luke Schoonmaker each to score on a combined 12 yards.
Through the first two weeks of play, Henry averages 6.5 targets, 5.5 receptions for 54 yards per game. He has also scored in both games. Yes, touchdowns are far less reliable stats to chase, but Bill Belichick likes to stop what teams do best and attack what teams do worst. Expect Henry to be targeted similarly to the range he has been in and garner a couple of looks in the red zone as well.
OK, if we are being completely honest here, this one is not an easy recommendation. Despite having a surplus of talent, it has not translated to fantasy points. In Week 1, Pitts saw just three targets, which he converted to two receptions for 44 scoreless yards. In Week 2, his targets bumped up to five. He could only reel in two of them for a disappointing 15 yards. It has been nothing short of a disappointing start to the new season.
The ray of hope here is a plus matchup that could see plenty of fantasy points. The Lions allow the third-most fantasy points and the most receiving yards to the position thus far. They’re also playing at home, where Goff and company thrive. There should be scoring, forcing Arthur Smith to grumble, curse and reluctantly dial up a few more passing plays.
Pitts is far from a lock to put up meaningful fantasy points and, therefore, should be used in GPPs and tournaments as opposed to cash games.
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John Hesterman is a featured writer and Expert Consensus Ranker at FantasyPros. He also writes for DynastyLeagueFootball.com. For more from John, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter/X @John_Hesterman.
