Welcome to FantasyPros’ weekly pace and efficiency report. Each week of the season, we’ll survey trends in snap count totals while examining pace and efficiency data. Opportunity is king in fantasy football, and teams that run more plays have more opportunities to score fantasy points.
Snap counts are the product of pace and efficiency, so examining each factor provides insight into future game environments, changes in coaching philosophy, and offensive growth or decline throughout the season.
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Fantasy Football Week 1 NFL Pace & Efficiency Preview (2023)
Teams Projected for High Week 1 Snap Counts
Buffalo Bills
The Bills have one of the best setups for Week 1. They have the highest matchup score for any team by a wide margin this week. This is due to their excellent pace, efficiency, and defense, while their opponent, the Jets, did not possess excellence in those categories in 2022. It’s fair to argue that is a vastly different Jets team, a team that’s likely better. However, I suspect that there will be growing pains early on, hence why I’m highlighting this as a favorable matchup for fantasy players on the Bills.
Minnesota
The Vikings were frequent visitors to this article last year, and they’re featured again in this year’s first installment. Minnesota’s offense might be better this year, as they finished the year with just a 55.4 composite efficiency rating (CER) and now add Jordan Addison and a full year of TJ Hockenson. They face off against the Tampa Bay Bucs, who will be without Brady and project as one of the NFL’s worst teams. Minnesota should run this game and take plenty of snaps.
Seattle Seahawks
Seattle was a surprise last year, but I don’t think they were a fluke. They return all of their skill players sans Penny but add rookies Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Zach Charbonnet. They also are in Year 2 for their rookie tackles. This is an offense that could be even better in 2023 for fantasy, especially if they keep their excellent pace from a year ago. On the other hand, their opponent, the Los Angeles Rams, were a disaster. Things could be better now that Stafford is healthy, but I still like Seattle to dominate this game.
Teams Projected for Low Week 1 Snap Counts
Chicago Bears
Chicago could be a much-improved squad from a season ago, but I still have doubts about their pace. They ranked 30th in snaps/60 minutes and in seconds/play in 2022, posted a 28.4 CER, and the worst defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) in the league. Additionally, Green Bay was one of the slower teams last year in pace, so if the Bears were to get the offense going, they still might not run many plays.
Carolina Panthers and Atlanta Falcons
Carolina was a regular in this section of the article last year, and I feel comfortable including them again to begin the season. Bryce Young is (maybe) an upgrade at QB, and they have a new HC who might not run as slow a pace as they ran a year ago, but both of these are yet to be seen. Atlanta also was quite slow last year but had a solid CER of 51.0. This will likely be a low-scoring, slow-paced game, so I’ll be avoiding it.
Noteworthy Trends
There is a lot more guesswork done early on in the season because of our lack of data. All of the data in this table comes from teams' end-of-season stats. However, some teams got better, and others got worse. This will force us to use more inference in the early portion of this season.
Of course, a lot of these stats will be relatively sticky, such as pace stats for a team returning their coaching staff, but others, such as CER and DVOA, might look different year over year. Again, this just requires us to think more and not simply rely on the table at face value. Context is just as powerful as raw data. This is in the importance of making statistical inferences.
*Data from the table comes from Pro Football Reference, FTNfantasy Pace Tool, FTNfantasy DVOA, rbsdm, TeamRankings Minutes Played and TeamRankings Yards Per Play
**Composite Efficiency Score is a statistic I created using regression analysis of the efficiency metrics on the table.
*** Matchup score is a weighted metric that accounts for a team's pace, efficiency, and defense, as well as their opponent's, to show which matchup is most conducive for running a high number of plays
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