NFL Week 1 DFS GPP Lineup Advice & Picks (2023 Fantasy Football)

I wrote guaranteed prize pool (GPP) articles last season and am ecstatic to be back! The DFS prize pools on NFL Sundays are absolutely absurd, and it’s one of the only times that you can make life-changing money with a minimal investment. My goal is to help you reach one of those top-end prizes, and these GPP players are the ones to get you there! With that in mind, let’s dive into this Week 1 slate.

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The players below are ones I’m looking at for GPP considerations for Week 1:

NFL Week 1 DFS GPP Lineup Advice

Quarterbacks

DraftKings

Anthony Richardson (QB – IND): $5,600 vs. JAX

Richardson is the definition of a GPP play. This kid has all the talent in the world, but nobody knows what he will look like. All of the combined metrics make him look like one of the greatest prospects of all time, but he’s extremely raw. What makes him exciting for DFS is his rushing ability; he’s projected to be the top rusher of all quarterbacks this season. Any player like that is enticing in a GPP.

Bryce Young (QB – HOU): $5,500 at ATL

This is funny because Young and Richardson have the same question marks. Both rookies could struggle, but either could be a stud right out of the gate. Young is projected to be the much better passer, but both of these youngsters are being thrown into the fire. The matchup is Young’s biggest asset though, with Atlanta allowing the seventh-most passing yards in the NFL last year. These guys have high ceilings and scary floors, but that’s what you’re looking for from a GPP player.

FanDuel

Joe Burrow (QB – CIN): $7,900 at CLE

Burrow is usually a cash game play, but his injury question marks make him a great GPP option in Week 1. We expect the stud to suit up, which makes him too cheap at below $8,000. We’re talking about a guy who averaged over 21 FanDuel points per game last year! He also attempted at least 28 passes in every game, a role many quarterbacks don’t have right now!

Brock Purdy (QB – SF): $6,900 at PIT

People forget just how good Purdy looked at the end of last season. The fill-in had at least 15 FanDuel points in his final six regular season games, dropping a career-high 35 FD points in the Wild Card game. That sort of upside is not very surprising, since he has the best offensive weapons in the NFL around him, making Purdy a phenomenal GPP play below $7,000.

Running Backs

DraftKings

Joe Mixon (RB – CIN): $6,800 at CLE

The discord on Mixon has been negative throughout the offseason, and it’s hard to understand why. This guy is projected to be the workhorse back for one of the best offenses in football and could see even more work with Samaje Perine leaving town. You’d think Mixon had a terrible year when looking at the salary and projections, but he was seventh among all running backs in DK points per game last season. That looks even better considering Cleveland had a 27th OPRK against opposing rushers, with Joe scoring at least 13 DK points in both of their matchups.

Jamaal Williams (RB – NOS): $5,100 vs. TEN

It feels like people are overlooking Williams because of Raheem Mostert. Mostert was in my cash game article, but Williams is just as good of an option, if not better. He’s expected to get all the work in New Orleans because Alvin Kamara is suspended and Kendre Miller is injured. That means J-Will could see 100 percent of the running back duties, which is amazing since he was the league leader in touchdowns last year!

FanDuel

Kenneth Walker (RB – SEA): $7,100 vs. LAR

Many people believe Walker will see some negative regression this season, but I disagree. He’s the workhorse now that Rashaad Penny is out of town, and we shouldn’t forget how special Kenny was in that role last season. Over the final 13 games last year, Walker averaged nearly 15 FanDuel points per game. That’s what Nick Chubb averaged last year, and Walker should get plenty of opportunities here since Seattle is one of the biggest favorites of the week. In their Week 18 matchup with LA last year, Walker had 29 carries for 114 rushing yards!

Deon Jackson (RB – IND): $5,600 vs. JAX

With Jonathan Taylor out for the first four weeks and Zack Moss injured, D-Jax is expected to get all the work in Indy. In the two games Jackson played at least 40 snaps last year, he averaged 17.1 FanDuel points per game. That’s absurd from such an affordable player, and it’s not like Jacksonville has a stifling defense either.

Wide Receivers

DraftKings

Michael Thomas (WR – NOS): $5,100 vs. TEN

All of the injuries have people forgetting just how special this guy was. Thomas was the best receiver in football through his first four years in the league, but injuries have killed his reputation the last three years. We’re willing to overlook that in a GPP because he’s fully healthy now and way too cheap at just $5,100. Even in limited time, Thomas has scored at least 14 DK points in five of his last seven games. He’s also expected to see a bump with Derek Carr at quarterback, and this might be the only time Thomas is below $6K if he returns to the stud he once was!

Van Jefferson (WR – LAR): $4,700 at SEA

With Cooper Kupp expected to sit, Jefferson is projected to be the number one receiver on the team. That’s not exactly exciting, but any top receiver below $5,000 is an intriguing option. Matthew Stafford has been a capable quarterback in the past, and he needs to feed someone with Kupp sidelined. Jefferson’s numbers are ugly from last year, but almost all of those games came when Stafford was injured.

FanDuel

Bryce Young (QB – HOU): $6,500 vs. DET

Why is the most consistent receiver in the NFL being overlooked by everyone? Evans had at least 67 catches and 1,000 receiving yards in every season he’s played, and he’s being priced around a bunch of number-two receivers. This stud finished 12th with 12.4 FD points per game last year and he should be able to reach that mark since Detroit allowed the third-most passing yards in the NFL last season.

Bryce Young (QB – HOU): $5,800 vs. PHI

There is some adverse reporting about Juju’s knees right now, but he should be fine as long as he’s on the field. It was already hard to believe that Smith-Schuster was below $6K when looking at his numbers last year, when he averaged 10.3 FD points per game through his first 13 outings. A concussion derailed the rest of his season, but Juju is expected to be the top target in this New England offense. They’ll have to throw a ton to keep up with Philly’s fantastic offense and it should have JSS in line for double-digit targets.

Tight Ends

DraftKings

Bryce Young (QB – HOU): $4,000 vs. LVR

Sean Payton is famous for getting the most out of his tight ends, and early reports have Dulcich as a potential breakout. We saw glimpses of that potential last year, when he scored at least 11 DK points in four of 10 games. That upside is hard to overlook from a $4K player, especially since they need to fill the void left behind by Jerry Jeudy‘s absence. We also don’t mind that Vegas allowed the fourth-most passing yards in the NFL last year!

FanDuel

Bryce Young (QB – HOU): $8,000 vs. HOU

Many people will overlook Andrews because he’s the highest-priced tight end and enters this matchup with a questionable tag, but that makes him an enticing GPP play. Whenever Lamar Jackson is healthy, Andrews is the second-best tight end in fantasy. Travis Kelce is the only better option, and he’s not even on this slate! Plus we can’t overlook that Houston is supposed to be one of the worst defenses in the NFL.

Defense/Special Teams

DraftKings

Arizona Cardinals D/ST: $2,500 at WAS

Spending just $2,500 on any player can be massive for your lineup because it allows you to stack some of the best offenses in football. We’re willing to take that risk here because who knows what Washington will look like. They’re starting an unknown quarterback with just one NFL start under his belt and are possibly missing their top wideout. It’s not like Arizona was atrocious last year either, as they ranked 12th in total defense.

FanDuel

Washington Commanders D/ST: $4,900 vs. ARI

Many people will see that Washington is the second-highest priced D/ST and fade them, but that’s not wise. This is one of the best options of the week, as the Commanders enter this matchup as a 7.5-point favorite in a game with a 38-point total. That means Arizona is the lowest projected offense on this slate, which is far from surprising since they haven’t even named a quarterback yet. Use any D/ST against Arizona!

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Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.